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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #54,421
  • Jan 9, 2015 3:08am Jan 9, 2015 3:08am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} OK, every time I post a long term chart like this, there's plenty of reactions, but any alternate counts or views are welcome. Present wave (c) from Feb 2012 low could reach as high as 150.00 area in completing an irregular flat correction [4]. {image} While the daily chart below tells the story................. {image}
Skyhok,

Thanks a lot for your charts. It helps me a lot for comparison purposes. Could you also tell me what is your invalidation point and if possible an alt count in case the bullish view doesn't work out. Appreciate your help..
STING
  • #54,422
  • Jan 9, 2015 3:23am Jan 9, 2015 3:23am
Seems that USDJPY is all set to test 118.50; however NFP can trigger reversal to crucial resistance zone (120.75-85).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,423
  • Jan 9, 2015 4:05am Jan 9, 2015 4:05am
Good morning folks,

On an intraday analysis, this is my humble EW view ( 4hr)

Today being NFP, things can go all volatile, but on a EW technical point of view, we can see the following.

On the major wave 5 up, we have completed wave 1 at 119.93 (hopefully) and we are in a 2 nd wave retracement, in which a and b leg seems to be over and we are on the c leg now. There is a good chance for price to come down a little more to 118.98 which is 50% retracement of minor wave 1. also an ATR support line intraday.
Hopefully, we can see prices go up from 118.98 to a minimum 120.89 which is the FE 100.
122.06 comes in at FE 161.8


On a slightly longer term, ( my view, skyhok has a different view although targets are similar thankfully), We have started a major 5 th wave and out of which we have completed wave 1 and 2 and we are on the 3 rd wave up. The minimum target for this wave 3 is 123.33 (FE 100) according to my charts.Fe 161.8 comes in at 126.61 and there is a possibility for extended wave 3 as well. we will come to that later if it happens.

Here is an intraday chart and a slightly long term chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Uj 2nd chart.JPG Size: 134 KB
STING
  • #54,424
  • Jan 9, 2015 4:54am Jan 9, 2015 4:54am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy.JPG Size: 177 KB


thats what the chart says, not me
  • #54,425
  • Jan 9, 2015 6:37am Jan 9, 2015 6:37am
UJ 1H Chart:
Cheers, U2

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post7983199
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #54,426
  • Jan 9, 2015 6:52am Jan 9, 2015 6:52am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Skyhok, Thanks a lot for your charts. It helps me a lot for comparison purposes. Could you also tell me what is your invalidation point and if possible an alt count in case the bullish view doesn't work out. Appreciate your help..
Yes, my count could be wrong too, and it gets invalidated if it retrace more than 80% of previous range.
While an alternate count could see the wave [iv] develop into a more sideways flat correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 03.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #54,427
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:37am Jan 9, 2015 8:37am
Good job data, but dollar not responding well.....strange!
  • #54,428
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:38am Jan 9, 2015 8:38am
Quoting pohchuan
Good job data, but dollar not responding well.....strange!

Looks more like Yen strength not Dollar weakness just saying.
  • #54,429
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:38am Jan 9, 2015 8:38am
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Looks more like Yen strength not Dollar weakness just saying.
exactly even eur/jpy fall 30 pips in last 10 min
  • #54,430
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:59am Jan 9, 2015 8:59am
Gold up, 10 year US treasury yields down signals safe havens up = jpy up
  • #54,431
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:00am Jan 9, 2015 9:00am
looks like U/J to be stuck in 120-117 range for up coming months untill Fed provides solid direction for rates
  • #54,432
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:06am Jan 9, 2015 9:06am
Quoting DailyChart
I saw long setup at LO
flat - took loss 3
  • #54,433
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:11am Jan 9, 2015 9:11am
Quoting pohchuan
Good job data, but dollar not responding well.....strange!

Give it some time !!
STING
  • #54,434
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:16am Jan 9, 2015 9:16am
Based on measurement with fib extensions on 5 min chart: a re-test of 118.78 is guaranteed.. even lower lows can be expected..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,435
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:38am Jan 9, 2015 9:38am
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  • #54,436
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:50am Jan 9, 2015 9:50am
Could some of your brainies tell me a safe place for a SL for my short from 119.30 ????

I used 119.20 so far.. will try to trail..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,437
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:06am Jan 9, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Could some of your brainies tell me a safe place for a SL for my short from 119.30 ???? I used 119.20 so far.. will try to trail.. Happy Trades
Hmmm no response.. seems everyone is busy with calculating their losses I guess.. so then it's better I move my SL along with Ichimoku-Kijun on 5 min chart as usual...

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,438
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:07am Jan 9, 2015 10:07am
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  • #54,439
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:16am Jan 9, 2015 10:16am
Gave up all my gains this week to this movement... at least I didn't suffer a margin call.
  • #54,440
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:28am Jan 9, 2015 10:28am
it was very easy to see is going to be short (three Drive ) or 12345
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