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  • #948,721
  • Jan 8, 2015 5:43pm Jan 8, 2015 5:43pm
I read an article earlier on the financial times that said this is the first time since the creation of the euro that it has fallen 9 days in a row.

It sure looks like it's ready to go into a free fall to 1.15 or something. On the weekly it is basically just going straight down now.
  • #948,722
  • Jan 8, 2015 6:08pm Jan 8, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} saw it... i cracked out laughing.
so take a break enjoying ... and tell us when this bear trap going to end so that i can finally start opening short positions before greek elections....;-)

(i dont think super mario will do anything before the second greek election round)
  • #948,723
  • Jan 8, 2015 6:57pm Jan 8, 2015 6:57pm
ok bad news for aussie but ..aussie goes higher ..
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #948,724
  • Jan 8, 2015 7:04pm Jan 8, 2015 7:04pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} so take a break enjoying ... and tell us when this bear trap going to end so that i can finally start opening short positions before greek elections....;-) (i dont think super mario will do anything before the second greek election round)
Dailyfx got a brilliant report in retail positioning, if you know the relationships you'll see eurusd goes down when retail is net long and retail is still net long soooo expect further weakness
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...0000000Mum4AAC
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,725
  • Jan 8, 2015 7:20pm Jan 8, 2015 7:20pm
Quoting Malchi
ok bad news for aussie but ..aussie goes higher ..
okay malchi, seems like i really need to teach you something.
When data comes out, especially if you look at the data from ForexFactory, A lot of noob traders just look at these "headline" numbers and think to themselves "oh if headline data comes out negative, the market will fall"

sadly this is not the case... you are playing in the league of professionals.
A headline data is usually compiled along with "Sub-datas"
professionals look at "headline data" first indeed. but minimal change in "headline figures" wont move market much, only the big shock/surprise would move market immediately....

So....
as you saw. Australia just came out with Retail Sales.
Actual +0.1%, Forecast +0.4% and Prior +0.3%
yes its a -0.2% drop in retail sales growth... but +0.1% is still a positive growth. albeit at a slightly disappointing pace...

but the accompanying data is whats giving AUD the boost that might seem shocking to you....

Quote
Retail Sales for November, % m/m

  1. expected +0.2% m/m
  2. prior was +0.4%

From the Australian Bureau of Statistics:

  1. Trend estimate rose 0.4% in November 2014. This follows a rise of 0.4% in October 2014 and a rise of 0.4% in September 2014
  2. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1% in November 2014. This follows a rise of 0.4% in October 2014 and a rise of 1.3% in September 2014
  3. In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 4.5% in November 2014 compared with November 2013


Whats driving AUD up a little is that accompanying data like trend estimate is rising, seasonally adjusted estimate rising, and australian turnover rising..... you simply cant ignore the fact that okay retail sales came out disappointing but the accompanying data is already forcasting next data to come out better. think ahead of the curve.

Thats why you see sometimes USD still rises despite disappointing NFP figures..... say for an example....

on NFP day you see Actual +200k, forcast +235k, Prior +233k..... okay disappointing against forcast and prior but still a growth none the less....
but at the same time... unemployment rate and participation rate must not be ignored....
while +200k was added, unemployment rate dropped by another 0.1% (great more people working, ie more people getting incomes and then will get to spend money)
and participation rate increased by 0.1%, Great news again people are getting back into looking for jobs.... so yea okay "headline" NFP in this case missed estimates but the accompanying data is supportive of a strong dollar because the economy or atleast the jobs market in US is getting better.

i hope you understood and learn this quick,
so you learn to question EVERY "Headline Data" and get curious on what the accompanying datas are suggesting.
we bankers dont really care much about the "headline data" unless they came out at a really really REALLY big surprise....
like the Retail sales in US for november/december... when it jumped from 2% to 4% or something.... (kinda forgot the actual figure but there was a data from US that was a really big shock around november time...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,726
  • Jan 8, 2015 7:27pm Jan 8, 2015 7:27pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Dailyfx got a brilliant report in retail positioning, if you know the relationships you'll see eurusd goes down when retail is net long and retail is still net long soooo expect further weakness http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...0000000Mum4AAC

i am aware of the relationship but i was somehow under the impression of the opposite going on.... weird
  • #948,727
  • Jan 8, 2015 7:55pm Jan 8, 2015 7:55pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} i am aware of the relationship but i was somehow under the impression of the opposite going on.... weird
Ur looking at forexfactory's trades?? Buddy.... Forexfactory is getting smarter now, but the retail world out there is still net long eurusd....
Dont just look at forexfactory.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,728
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:09pm Jan 8, 2015 8:09pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Ur looking at forexfactory's trades?? Buddy.... Forexfactory is getting smarter now, but the retail world out there is still net long eurusd.... Dont just look at forexfactory.

well i dont look much to FF trades i might look at FF but at the same time i look at various infos from various broker (who do show it).... when i do

this was just merely on my perception... and of course you know what the big fish is doing to the small fish...

anyway to talk more seriously
the big issue for me is whether super mario is going to halt the whole "party" he initially setup for because of elections and reschedule it 6 weeks later which ironically is more or less going to fall (ideally for him) for after the second round of elections in greece (the odds are we are going to have a second round)

ALSO
take in account that super mario has so far "succeeded" in having the euro at very low levels already (as he wanted the first place) and so a small delay will not hurt his plans...

dont forget that all the "big guys" were talking of a 1.19/1.20 level by end of this year -2015- (some of them) to Q2 next year -2016- (the others).... and we got there right with the start of this year....

the way the PA is going... we are going to wake up the new "new year" 2016 just before parity



Ps by the way as a friend told me...the easiest thing this year was a) shorting all they way in favour of USD b) know when SNB will react to the pip level

the hardest....projecting how big the bonus will be... with all the above "2 points" in place


last but not least i have still to take a position on eurusd or usdjpy.... just took a position short on audusd... because i felt rusty..
  • #948,729
  • Edited 8:43pm Jan 8, 2015 8:10pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} okay malchi, seems like i really need to teach you something. When data comes out, especially if you look at the data from ForexFactory, A lot of noob traders just look at these "headline" numbers and think to themselves "oh if headline data comes out negative, the market will fall" sadly this is not the case... you are playing in the league of professionals. A headline data is usually compiled along with "Sub-datas" professionals look at "headline data" first indeed. but minimal change in "headline figures" wont move market much, only the...
okay thanks man !
this will help me better understand news :-)
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #948,730
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:07pm Jan 8, 2015 9:07pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} okay malchi, seems like i really need to teach you something. When data comes out, especially if you look at the data from ForexFactory, A lot of noob traders just look at these "headline" numbers and think to themselves "oh if headline data comes out negative, the market will fall" sadly this is not the case... you are playing in the league of professionals. A headline data is usually compiled along with "Sub-datas" professionals look at "headline data" first indeed. but minimal change in "headline figures" wont move market much, only the...

You have a great potential to become a successful trader. let me tell you.
  • #948,731
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:40pm Jan 8, 2015 9:40pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} You have a great potential to become a successful trader. let me tell you.
well i already am a sales trader.... successful or not depends if i can meet my annual quota... so far so good but these last 2 weeks im just sitting on side doing nothing.... feels weird....
thats why i got time to spend on here.... for the entertainment value.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,732
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:42pm Jan 8, 2015 9:42pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well i already am a sales trader.... successful or not depends if i can meet my annual quota... so far so good but these last 2 weeks im just sitting on side doing nothing.... feels weird.... thats why i got time to spend on here.... for the entertainment value.

you have joined the "club" i am lately a member of? (the waiting one)
  • #948,733
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:45pm Jan 8, 2015 9:45pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} you have joined the "club" i am lately a member of? (the waiting one)
welcome to the waiting lounge. the next train/flight is delayed by 2 weeks or so.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,734
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:55pm Jan 8, 2015 9:55pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Australia just came out with Retail Sales. Actual +0.1%, Forecast +0.4% and Prior +0.3% yes its a -0.2% drop in retail sales growth... but +0.1% is still a positive growth. albeit at a slightly disappointing pace... but the accompanying data is whats giving AUD the boost that might seem shocking to you.... Whats driving AUD up a little is that accompanying data like trend estimate is rising, seasonally adjusted estimate rising, and australian turnover rising..... you simply cant ignore the fact that okay retail sales came out disappointing...participation rate
any clue where i can get these data?
  • #948,735
  • Jan 8, 2015 10:00pm Jan 8, 2015 10:00pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} welcome to the waiting lounge. the next train/flight is delayed by 2 weeks or so.

well as my friend Jack (Daniels) has famously said.... "just warming up"
  • #948,736
  • Jan 8, 2015 10:34pm Jan 8, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} any clue where i can get these data?
Thomson Reuters Eikon, or Bloomberg Terminal has a powerful economic event releases module...

but another way is this.
i know how a lot of people hates forexlive... but they do give you the data when it comes out. albeit maybe a sligh timelag.
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...farm-payrolls/

Quote
Forex news for December 5, 2014:

  1. November 2014 US non-farm payrolls 321k vs 230k exp
  2. Unemployment rate 5.8% vs 5.8% exp.
  3. Canadian November employment -10.7K vs +5.0K expected
  4. Canadian trade balance +0.1B vs +0.2B exp
  5. BOC’s

...

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,737
  • Jan 8, 2015 10:56pm Jan 8, 2015 10:56pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} any clue where i can get these data?
You can grab it straight from the news print.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: news.jpg Size: 35 KB
  • #948,738
  • Jan 8, 2015 10:57pm Jan 8, 2015 10:57pm
Which timeframe do you like to see a bounce before going long? Right now 4 hours chart starting to show a bounce. However, daily chart doesn't.
  • #948,739
  • Jan 8, 2015 11:00pm Jan 8, 2015 11:00pm
Quoting sideburn
Which timeframe do you like to see a bounce before going long? Right now 4 hours chart starting to show a bounce. However, daily chart doesn't.
Even if i get 1 bullish candle on a weekly i still wont trade a bounce because a bounce against the major trend is just initially a retracement, better to look at shorting opportunities when retracement starts to stall.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #948,740
  • Jan 8, 2015 11:02pm Jan 8, 2015 11:02pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting sideburn
Which timeframe do you like to see a bounce before going long? Right now 4 hours chart starting to show a bounce. However, daily chart doesn't.
We don't even have a relevant higher high on the 4HR much less a higher low. I would need to see both of these before calling this a bounce. When price does bounce from these record lows.... You'll know it. GL
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