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  • #6,701
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:03am Jan 8, 2015 8:03am
Quoting Fx_Anil
USDCAD seems coming down to 1.1750 soon. However, upside resistance of 1.1880 becomes crucial for determining near-term CAD move. {image}
Valid conclusion. Needs a correction before continuing to 1.20 maybe!
  • #6,702
  • Jan 8, 2015 10:26am Jan 8, 2015 10:26am
I better hold off to find Asia, London Feelings on this Tonight!
things always move on me in the middle of the Night.
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  • #6,703
  • Jan 8, 2015 11:50am Jan 8, 2015 11:50am
USD/CAD short at 1.1815. Should buy back at 1.16.
Its all in the mind.
  • #6,704
  • Jan 8, 2015 1:53pm Jan 8, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting 5abi
USD/CAD short at 1.1815. Should buy back at 1.16.
After having closed under 1.1830 yesterday, that very price has become major resistance for EUR/CAD. As of the correct moment we are above it, but it has not closed above that price on any of the higher tf. Assuming NFP gives us some wicked price action, and if EUR/CAD and remain accumulated at this resistance level then we should see a sharp spike down for NFP as the first move, then a power move to the upside, being that market sentiment has been to sell this pair since the end of last year.
  • #6,705
  • Jan 8, 2015 3:35pm Jan 8, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Hey your count looks good I'm following
Skyhok,
What do you make of this.?
I think the spike is an anomoly. I can't make any sense of it otherwise.

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  • #6,706
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:35pm Jan 8, 2015 8:35pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Skyhok, What do you make of this.? I think the spike is an anomoly. I can't make any sense of it otherwise. {image}
Looking good for the start if you are selling - but then anything can happen, therefore SL where count gets invalidated.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,707
  • Jan 9, 2015 3:42am Jan 9, 2015 3:42am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Looking good for the start if you are selling - but then anything can happen, therefore SL where count gets invalidated. {image}

IMHO, these spikes are caused by large institutions to get their short orders filled.
If your stop isn't triggered by price, the spread may take you out.

Elliott wave is mass psychology, these are anomalies.
Waves 2 is where they trade, next time i will anticipate.
This remains my count.
We know soon enough if i am correct.

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  • #6,708
  • Jan 9, 2015 6:24am Jan 9, 2015 6:24am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} IMHO, these spikes are caused by large institutions to get their short orders filled. If your stop isn't triggered by price, the spread may take you out. Elliott wave is mass psychology, these are anomalies. Waves 2 is where they trade, next time i will anticipate. This remains my count. We know soon enough if i am correct. {image}
The mass accepted the spike so comment invalidated for last spike.
Lets see how this plays out.

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  • #6,709
  • Jan 9, 2015 7:53am Jan 9, 2015 7:53am
lots of news among which nfp, we are back at start.

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  • #6,710
  • Jan 9, 2015 3:11pm Jan 9, 2015 3:11pm
Hello everyone,

I'm new to this trading community, making the move from babypips. I have been rather interested in this pair, and I would like to share my believe about what has happened today.
I have noticed that this website offers the ability of seeing the lot size and sentiment of traders. An observation which I have made is that many people have a bias to short this pair. I assume it is because of the strength which the pair has shown as of the 27th of December, so trading instinct would make us want to short, but simply looking at the demand for the lots to short should make you remain neutral to the short positions until sentiment shifts to the long side.
Prior to the NFP released more then 60% of the traders were short this pair 3 hours prior. Once the spike occurred (to the buy side) many people were thinking (STOP HUNT). Once the price began to pull back, the bias towards the short position increase even more (63%) and now with less then 1 hour left in the market we are much closer to the new high which was created.
Although many of us enjoy trading using the trend lines, and higher TF (which we were taught to use from day one) the simply question is how many different formations can one GREEN candle of say 50 pips on the 1hr or h4 give us on a much lower tf? Any sort of feedback would be appreciated as I love learning and understanding how my fellow traders think.
  • #6,711
  • Edited 5:40pm Jan 9, 2015 5:11pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting TomFord
Hello everyone, I'm new to this trading community, making the move from babypips. I have been rather interested in this pair, and I would like to share my believe about what has happened today. I have noticed that this website offers the ability of seeing the lot size and sentiment of traders. An observation which I have made is that many people have a bias to short this pair. I assume it is because of the strength which the pair has shown as of the 27th of December, so trading instinct would make us want to short, but simply looking at the demand...
I reply from my own experience. This bull wave was hard to count, thanks to this NFP, now it is easyer to count (my last chart) so more bears. Now you can even count it with candles of 1 day.
One green candle can be a spike which is a sign of hard rejection, a long candle which is bullish. The NFP candle is a minor spike.
I mean, its not the 4h candle, i believe the move even was predictable (i did not), many times spikes end at trendlines.
People who use the daily chart can now also see what is going on (more bears):

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Perhaps on monday we see 1.19 round number as a sort of a reset to start a bear count.
lower tf count is crap for bears, food for bulls.
  • #6,712
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:12pm Jan 9, 2015 8:12pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I reply from my own experience. This bull wave was hard to count, thanks to this NFP, now it is easyer to count (my last chart) so more bears. Now you can even count it with candles of 1 day. One green candle can be a spike which is a sign of hard rejection, a long candle which is bullish. The NFP candle is a minor spike. I mean, its not the 4h candle, i believe the move even was predictable (i did not), many times spikes end at trendlines. People who use the daily chart can now also see what is going on (more bears): {image} Perhaps on...
The issue I am having understanding is how no one speaks about market sentiment. Everyone has a price, a range, a chart, a line, nothing consistent. Example when you draw trend lines, after the first time you have it on your chart, your not suppose to change it, if it is a constant. When you look at a 5m chart, look for a formation in which once two new lows are created the trend line always bounces from it, and on the first engulf across a bull trend under it, it results in 20 pips profit before 6 pips in red. You have those formations, and now one even thinks about it. Would you like proof? EUR.USD on 5m Current market watch time on my MT4 is 23:59:44The range of time I am referring to is 7 JAN 8:00 UNTIL 7 JAN 17:55 Look at how the highs get lower, and the lows get lower also. Then look at how the last high would then be engulfed before a fresh NEW LOW is created. THAT would be your trend reversal. If it goes back under you are more then likely heading into accumulation or breakout further to the down side. After that engulf the price would then close across 2 daily pivots before closing back under the candle which you entered on in the 5 min.
  • #6,713
  • Jan 11, 2015 4:14pm Jan 11, 2015 4:14pm
ah.... here we go again.....
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  • #6,714
  • Jan 12, 2015 2:16am Jan 12, 2015 2:16am
sellers taking the upper hand sooner or later
  • #6,715
  • Jan 12, 2015 12:27pm Jan 12, 2015 12:27pm
Shorts just got Hammered and Licking wounds again,,
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  • #6,716
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:44pm Jan 13, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting TomFord
{quote} The issue I am having understanding is how no one speaks about market sentiment. Everyone has a price, a range, a chart, a line, nothing consistent. Example when you draw trend lines, after the first time you have it on your chart, your not suppose to change it, if it is a constant. When you look at a 5m chart, look for a formation in which once two new lows are created the trend line always bounces from it, and on the first engulf across a bull trend under it, it results in 20 pips profit before 6 pips in red. You have those formations,...
Well, i have learned a lot about trading and now i am simplifying my setups just using the tools i find most valuable. I don't know anything about market sentiment but i know how to draw a line and where the supports and resistances are. All i care about is moving my stop loss to break even. I bet there are many like me.
  • #6,717
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:08pm Jan 13, 2015 7:08pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Well, i have learned a lot about trading and now i am simplifying my setups just using the tools i find most valuable. I don't know anything about market sentiment but i know how to draw a line and where the supports and resistances are. All i care about is moving my stop loss to break even. I bet there are many like me.
Market sentiment is geared more for those who are trying to obtain accurate entry. In most cases if not all, those who want accurate entries would be scalpers.
  • #6,718
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:20pm Jan 13, 2015 7:20pm
Uh, I'm surprised people are actually shorting this
  • #6,719
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:24pm Jan 13, 2015 8:24pm
Breakout would prove move could be on Last Leg and hit Target 1.2082
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  • #6,720
  • Jan 14, 2015 9:23am Jan 14, 2015 9:23am
Notice the spike move
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