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  • #947,421
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:02am Jan 2, 2015 11:02am
Quoting fxtyrant
who here still dumb enough to long eurusd, we broke below the multi year uptrend since 2008
do I need glases? Or do I need to switch my chart 90 degree to the left?
  • #947,422
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:03am Jan 2, 2015 11:03am
Quoting fxtyrant
who here still dumb enough to long eurusd, we broke below the multi year uptrend since 2008
Market is reading in QE, dammit i hoped we wont be droping so strong ahead of it, 200-300 pips up would have been nice, much nicer to short ahead of it. Now this thing will go very deep ahead of it and make more stinky smelly short when time comes. The problem is not who is dumb enough to buy it, the problem is with those that are smart enough to sell ahead, big guys, they drive it too quick.
  • #947,423
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:10am Jan 2, 2015 11:10am
Quoting tankokjian
{quote} i dont understand what you mean. USD data came out more neg then the supposed neg forecast. 50-70pips move is pretty normal , PMI is not a market mover.
I am talking about USD index chart .
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  • #947,424
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:10am Jan 2, 2015 11:10am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Market is reading in QE, dammit i hoped we wont be droping so strong ahead of it, 200-300 pips up would have been nice, much nicer to short ahead of it. Now this thing will go very deep ahead of it and make more stinky smelly short when time comes. The problem is not who is dumb enough to buy it, the problem is with those that are smart enough to sell ahead, big guys, they drive it too quick.
maybe we wont see so much of a drive down when QE starts. so many events can drive down this pair.

maybe they are just waiting for usd to hike rates , this thing has gone down in the the deep pit . anything will drive this pair sky rocket. i am playing it with tight stops atm , long term should be looking to buy up this EU .
  • #947,425
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:12am Jan 2, 2015 11:12am
Speaking of retailers actions we are right now on perfect structural point where we should see down dump trough lows as long as there are retailers longing here hard. This is common example where structure is saying it wants to go down, while technically it still remains in "bull mode in terms of highs and lows", and on such peaks retailers like to long a lot near break, where COT data should show it up, and then it comes usually or often monetary policy decision and pushes it against them. There have been plenty such examples this year on h4 and weekly charts (AU,GU, EU, UCHF) .But COT at moment does not suggest heavy buying of retailers. Hm.
  • #947,426
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:24am Jan 2, 2015 11:24am
Quoting janpec1000
Speaking of retailers actions we are right now on perfect structural point where we should see down dump trough lows as long as there are retailers longing here hard. This is common example where structure is saying it wants to go down, while technically it still remains in "bull mode in terms of highs and lows", and on such peaks retailers like to long a lot near break, where COT data should show it up, and then it comes usually or often monetary policy decision and pushes it against them. There have been plenty such examples this year on h4 and...

Yes, good observation. COT data shows very bearish stance of small speculators. Only by looking at the position data from the various broker outlets like Oanda, or the FF-trade explorers, it shows, that retail traders are taking more long positions right now than short positions.

In the past, the retail crowd via broker data was more right than wrong on the extreme turning points. It shows, that the retail crowd has a good sense for timing, but they lack in standing power when it comes to holding such positions. Usually they give those "no brainers" away for a few pips of profit, literally speaking.
  • #947,427
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:32am Jan 2, 2015 11:32am
Please excuse the 'idiot question' but surely anyone taking long positions at the moment is effectively trying to catch the mythical falling knife, aren't they? Sure, it has to go up at some point but at the moment it's trying to break the big number and if/when that does go, who is willing to bet where it's gonna stop.
Personally, I'm shorting and keeping an eye on the June 2010 low of 1893 and then the 2005 low of 1683. My TP is sitting at 1700 though I'm happy to be flexible about that and jump out if it looks like retracing.
  • #947,428
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:32am Jan 2, 2015 11:32am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes, good observation. COT data shows very bearish stance of small speculators. Only by looking at the position data from the various broker outlets like Oanda, or the FF-trade explorers, it shows, that retail traders are taking more long positions right now than short positions. In the past, the retail crowd via broker data was more right than wrong on the extreme turning points. It shows, that the retail crowd has a good sense for timing, but they lack in standing power when it comes to holding such positions. Usually they give those "no...
pump and dump , thats the name of the game.
  • #947,429
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:33am Jan 2, 2015 11:33am
we will be testing 1.20 in a few moments, US banks will not miss the chance to check this level while we have lower liquidity today.
  • #947,430
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:38am Jan 2, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Devonsent
Please excuse the 'idiot question' but surely anyone taking long positions at the moment is effectively trying to catch the mythical falling knife, aren't they? Sure, it has to go up at some point but at the moment it's trying to break the big number and if/when that does go, who is willing to bet where it's gonna stop. Personally, I'm shorting and keeping an eye on the June 2010 low of 1893 and then the 2005 low of 1683. My TP is sitting at 1700 though I'm happy to be flexible about that and jump out if it looks like retracing.
A trend is a trend until it is not

Ask the traders who went long at 399x......., because it was such a nice and strong trend......
  • #947,431
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:39am Jan 2, 2015 11:39am
Wow, been skiing and come back to 1.2 Lovely euro
  • #947,432
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:43am Jan 2, 2015 11:43am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} A trend is a trend until it is not Ask the traders who went long at 399x......., because it was such a nice and strong trend......
Of course, and I fully appreciate that; though there are many reasons why I still wouldn't have longed at 3990, that's by the by.
The question is here that we are in a strong down trend, why would anyone try to pre-empt the market and say that they reckon it's going to turn?
They may well be right but it is one seriously sharp knife to play around with, especially with both Draghi and the FOMC just around the corner.
Is it hope over common sense?

Edit: Even more when it's just printed 2001 and looks like trying again . . .
  • #947,433
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:02pm Jan 2, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post7966399 the times i usually get cautious. for a 92/95 spike/bounce . this just dont seems like normal times when the last 14/40 years are considered. more oil with less demand is a time to sell weakness. on the ledge atm {image}
OK you expect it 90+?...IDK, cuz with Euro & JPY going down like the Hell oil seems hopeless...Oil without buyers is as useless as gold...
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  • #947,434
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:03pm Jan 2, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting Devonsent
{quote} Of course, and I fully appreciate that; though there are many reasons why I still wouldn't have longed at 3990, that's by the by. The question is here that we are in a strong down trend, why would anyone try to pre-empt the market and say that they reckon it's going to turn? They may well be right but it is one seriously sharp knife to play around with, especially with both Draghi and the FOMC just around the corner. Is it hope over common sense? Edit: Even more when it's just printed 2001 and looks like trying again . . .
From the pure technical perspective, the 1.2000 is profit taken point for bear and good entry point for bull given the fact the weekend is ahead and major news risk for EU next week.

From the pure technical perspective again, long reentry on 1.2000 for a pull back before NFP and FOMC in couple days has a fairly good risk and reward ratio, too.

It all depends on how your trade it.

But one thing i am a most certain of is the possibility of EU breaking below 1.200 meaningfully is nearly impossible at the current liquidation and volatility. The RR on the short order you gonna be placed near the 1.2000 level isn't great, in my option.
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  • #947,435
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:04pm Jan 2, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} From the pure technical perspective, the 1.2000 is profit taken point for bear and good entry point for bull given the fact the weekend is ahead and major news risk for EU next week. From the pure technical perspective again, long reentry on 1.2000 for a pull back before NFP and FOMC in couple days has a fairly good risk and reward ratio, too. It all depends on how your trade it.

  • #947,436
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:06pm Jan 2, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting Devonsent
{quote} Of course, and I fully appreciate that; though there are many reasons why I still wouldn't have longed at 3990, that's by the by. The question is here that we are in a strong down trend, why would anyone try to pre-empt the market and say that they reckon it's going to turn? They may well be right but it is one seriously sharp knife to play around with, especially with both Draghi and the FOMC just around the corner. Is it hope over common sense? Edit: Even more when it's just printed 2001 and looks like trying again . . .
looks like no retacing atm , all the way down from 1.25
  • #947,437
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:09pm Jan 2, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} From the pure technical perspective, the 1.2000 is profit taken point for bear and good entry point for bull given the fact the weekend is ahead and major news risk for EU next week. From the pure technical perspective again, long reentry on 1.2000 for a pull back before NFP and FOMC in couple days has a fairly good risk and reward ratio, too. It all depends on how your trade it. But one thing i am a most certain of is the possibility of EU breaking below 1.200 meaningfully is nearly impossible at the current liquidation and volatility....
Ah, OK, understood - the option of entering long is not because you think that the trend is about to change but to make a few pips whilst getting into a better position to take advantage of the fundamentals later.
OK, thanks
  • #947,438
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:11pm Jan 2, 2015 12:11pm
guys, i think tyrant is right here, i was also stubborn enough to try and pick tops and bottoms, thing is..this is when i lost the most money trying to pick a bottom ..i think the lesson here is just follow the trend till its over..its simple , but im not sure why we as humans are always making the same mistake.
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  • #947,439
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:20pm Jan 2, 2015 12:20pm
another funny day here
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #947,440
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:23pm Jan 2, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting santos23
guys, i think tyrant is right here, i was also stubborn enough to try and pick tops and bottoms, thing is..this is when i lost the most money trying to pick a bottom ..i think the lesson here is just follow the trend till its over..its simple , but im not sure why we as humans are always making the same mistake.
maybe its just picking the tops atm until trend is over.
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