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  • #947,121
  • Dec 31, 2014 9:54am Dec 31, 2014 9:54am
Happy New Year everyone.
  • #947,122
  • Edited 10:08am Dec 31, 2014 9:58am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting AgatheBauer
{quote} No, US intrest rate hike will strengthen USD, therefore EURUSD will go down in that case. Selling EURUSD seems like a nobrainer these days, however it's probably safer to wait for a last reversal. I thought about the stock market crash too. The last big crash in the DOW betwen 2007 and 2009 made EURUSD rise. I guess because we had a bigger demand for cash. @Mr Hatch: There is one last option: Splitting the EUR in two zones. Merkel is a bitch of power. She ditched Nuclear energy over night after Fukushima, and now she sees her voters go to...

From 2008 the EUR/USD fell sharply under the stockmarket crash- The euro started to rise again when Fed started QE in 2009 and the stock market rose again-

Oil down USD up as oil is paid in USD USD down gold up as a hegde against the USD
  • #947,123
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:08am Dec 31, 2014 10:08am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Better luck next time, hope you learned your lesson not to go against the trend. Market can stay oversold/overbought longer than you can stay sane
What would constitute "over-bought" or "over-sold"?
  • #947,124
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:13am Dec 31, 2014 10:13am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I expect 1.2185 next, I am not entering new positions this is for profit taking purpose only, market could reverse from that last one or 1.2066 imo.
Hopeful still we get it before the new year ends.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #947,125
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:32am Dec 31, 2014 10:32am
took 5 pips.. too painful to watch it not move. drinking time

Quoting pipper
ah well. it dragged me back in lets hope 2100 holds for a few {quote} {image}
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #947,126
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:42am Dec 31, 2014 10:42am
Quoting AgatheBauer
@Mr Hatch: There is one last option: Splitting the EUR in two zones. Merkel is a bitch of power. She ditched Nuclear energy over night after Fukushima, and now she sees her voters go to a new political party that demands just that, splitting the EUR. I still bet that QE will come, but i'm not 100% sure.
She's a bitch, I give you that...

A split EZ probably is what the German government might intend, but not the people. The people knows about the consequences of a split EZ, the media's campaigns about Greece didn't trigger, the campaigns to discredit Putin didn't trigger at all. Merkel is on very thin ice at the moment, but she has plenty of time and she therefore rushes quite a couple of things simultaneously.

Let's wait and see, enjoy the night
  • #947,127
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:00am Dec 31, 2014 11:00am
Tonight is the night every body, Happy New Year
  • #947,128
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:12am Dec 31, 2014 11:12am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} OK its better now, i prefer this... {quote} 2102? OK i will add this number to the list. {image}
i guess gator wasn't joking when he told me about the 2102...they don't want to give us the 2091...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #947,129
  • Edited 3:54pm Dec 31, 2014 12:23pm | Edited 3:54pm
Eur/Usd is overdue for some correction and Im anticipating Euro/Usd short-term downtrend on the weekly chart to end @ around 1.1900, plus minus 40 pips. The 423.6% extension of the 1st wave is where price could potentially bounce and form the ABC corrective wave.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #947,130
  • Dec 31, 2014 1:14pm Dec 31, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Spot on about the Fundies and Technicals. I agree 100%. Why not before? Because of Fundamental Reasons !!!. Let me make a long reply to close the year. Major currency pairs (the MOST important its Eur/Usd) trade around key areas set by fundamental reasons and expectations. Key areas can be spotted as major S/R zones or levels in big charts (we are talking minimum Weekly but essentially Monthly and up) and wont be taken out by technicals alone. sisse
Great post, thanks for sharing.

Hopefully we will see more posts like this from you in the New Year and some of your excellent charts please, the ones you used to post on the Bastards thread.
  • #947,131
  • Dec 31, 2014 3:47pm Dec 31, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Better luck next time, hope you learned your lesson not to go against the trend. Market can stay oversold/overbought longer than you can stay sane
Amen
  • #947,132
  • Dec 31, 2014 4:27pm Dec 31, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} Amen
its not shame to fall ... but its shame if u will give up.. take it from other hand u can take experience from it... almost all successful people were failed. But they didnt give up .. best wishes for him
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #947,133
  • Dec 31, 2014 5:22pm Dec 31, 2014 5:22pm
Nothing personal, but trading is like physics. The Trend is like the Law of Gravity. You wouldn't fight gravity. Why would you think you should fight the trend? It's the simplest and most fundamental rule of all trading, yet because it is so simple it is invariably ignored. I constantly see people calling bottoms/tops but they don't know. Price action is all that matters. When the trend changes, you'll KNOW. Until then your bias must remain with trend despite any personal 'theories' or 'guesses'.

And above all else RISK MANAGEMENT! How anyone blows up an account that has even moderately studied position sizing is beyond me. If you're overleveraged nothing you do will work. Very simple. Apparently not so easy...
  • #947,134
  • Dec 31, 2014 5:41pm Dec 31, 2014 5:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}Because of Fundamental Reasons !!!. Let me make a long reply to close the year.

  1. Interest Rates
  2. Inflation
  3. Central Bank Policies
  4. News
  5. Externalities

Thanks, Sisse. Where does this fit in, please.

In International Business 101 we are taught this. The exchange rate will adjust when there is an imbalance of demand/supply between two currency blocks. The demand/supply is for the goods and services that trade between the two currency blocks. So, let's say the U. S. demand for French wine and German autos rises significantly (mine has ). That would put upward pressure on the Euro vs. the USD.
  • #947,135
  • Dec 31, 2014 6:32pm Dec 31, 2014 6:32pm
2015 tons of pips to panda only，and，well，to some of your dude
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  • #947,136
  • Dec 31, 2014 6:54pm Dec 31, 2014 6:54pm
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Forex-Technical-Projections-for-2015.pdf   661 KB | 767 downloads
  • #947,137
  • Dec 31, 2014 8:26pm Dec 31, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Better luck next time, hope you learned your lesson not to go against the trend. Market can stay oversold/overbought longer than you can stay sane
The lesson here is not about going against the trend, it is simply about having firm and disciplined equity management.
  • #947,138
  • Edited 9:34pm Dec 31, 2014 9:18pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
Nothing personal.......
Nothing personal here too, just few thoughts:

Quoting Mwfinad1211
The Trend is like the Law of Gravity. You wouldn't fight gravity. Why would you think you should fight the trend? It's the simplest and most fundamental rule of all trading, yet because it is so simple it is invariably ignored. ...............When the trend changes, you'll KNOW. Until then your bias must remain with trend despite any personal 'theories' or 'guesses'.
It is not ignored, very well acknowledged. There would have been no trends if there were less trend followers than counter-trend traders. Trends exists because most traders follow one direction for quite sometime. There are countless reasons why counter trend traders take these trades. They have their own Quantum Physics where laws are different. Another thing is that trend follower traders enter and exit on different time-frames, therefore direction of a trend follower trader may or may not coincide with the direction of another trend follower trader who is trading on a different time-frame.

It is very difficult to spot a trend or trend change on higher time-frames. By the time one realizes it has developed, changed or exhausted, it is already too late. Not everybody spends hours counting candles. All major market players or people who made billions in trading are mostly those who formed a long-term opinions, were right and bet money on it. Yes, there are financial institutions who hire penny counters, set their limits or budget and require them to follow strict financial discipline. To me, this is not trading, jut a calculated gamble. This is where pa reading has some use.



Quoting Mwfinad1211
I constantly see people calling bottoms/tops but they don't know. Price action is all that matters. .
Entry or exit at a right setup and at the right time is an important element of trading. Tops and bottoms are trade-setups just like any other setup, therefore no harm in picking them. A pa reader scalper to a swing trader try their best to enter/exit at right price level. This whole market moves based on personal guesses and theories. Today's price of any currency is based on future outlook or prospects for that currency. Just an indication of a remote but high-impact factor is enough to move this market several hundred pips.

ps. Market is not different from us, WE ARE THE MARKET no matter how small is the impact of our presence in this market, we still are the market.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #947,139
  • Dec 31, 2014 9:42pm Dec 31, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Better luck next time, hope you learned your lesson not to go against the trend. Market can stay oversold/overbought longer than you can stay sane
What trend? I see no trend on weekly. Its a fuckin' spike down. Anyone going against this move is basically a trend follower, expecting a move up so that a visible trend is formed.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #947,140
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:23pm Dec 31, 2014 10:23pm
Hello every1,

happy new year to all the people of FF .... let 2015 bring more green pips to all ....

And thankx to FF admin for creating such a good website/forum for all the beginners & advanced traders ......

cheers to all ....

Re-Incarnated
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