EURUSD

Will this bottom around 1.2100 and should we be getting long soon? What factors should be considered before jumping in right now? thanks I am new to trading forex and so that is why my questions may not be as technical as other folks.

and it continues lower.... next year you all know my target 1.18 by Q2 2015.
funny how it wants to continue lower as we are counting "Down" for the new years....

retracement might be near

edit: included eu chart

Long, really?
My advise for u wait for some retracement and then go short.
Also don't trade against trend!

Hey buddy! Where is that guy going long to 1.27? lol

Spot on about the Fundies and Technicals. I agree 100%.

Why not before?

Because of Fundamental Reasons !!!. Let me make a long reply to close the year.

Major currency pairs (the MOST important its Eur/Usd) trade around key areas set by fundamental reasons and expectations. Key areas can be spotted as major S/R zones or levels in big charts (we are talking minimum Weekly but essentially Monthly and up) and wont be taken out by technicals alone. You can plot any TA you wont from indicators to magic lines (fibs, etc) it wont matter, if there are not strong fundamental reason to breach/break/hold these areas it wont happen whatever any technician, elliotician or fortune teller say.

The problem arises because lots of people get things very messed up between News and Fundamentals and Externalities. Sound the same but they ARE NOT. These are 3 very different concepts and have very different implications for a currency.

 

1. Long story short and bastardising macroeconomics, the most important Fundamental reason in a pair like the Eur/USD is monetary policy expectations given essentially by INTEREST RATES DIFFERENTIALS. The interest rate expectations are in general given by 2 key macro fundamentals: Inflation (all the those boring PMI's most people see but don't understand) and Macroeconomic Performance (GDP and Employment). The final strong Fundamental reason is Central Bank policies (e.g the SNB setting a band floor of 1.20xx in E/C, or the BOJ devaluing on purpose the yen, the Russian CB increasing interest rates out of the blue to avoid panic, etc, etc )

1. News (e.g Manufacturing PMI or any of the hundred of reports in the weekly Calendar) are not fundamentals reasons alone. However, the sum, trends and expectations of these numbers during a long period of time define certain real Fundamentals (like inflation, GDP, NFP, Consumer Confidence ,etc). In simple words a single news number is IRRELEVANT alone as fundamental factor and for trading but a long set of bad numbers for example (e.g. 2 consecutive Quarters decreases in GDP, etc) gives strong fundamental reasons for trading.

1. Externalities (eg. 9/11, and earthquake in japan, a run on banks, WAR, politics or a complete collapse of a country, etc) are factors OUTSIDE of economics fundamental reasons that can affect a currency but it wont necessarily change fundamental factors.

The best case example to show this is the PIIGS crisis you mentioned:

Although the Euro crisis was awful for some countries, the real economic fundamental reason behind the Euro/USD pair didn't REALLY changed during that time.

On the fundamental side: The interest rates differentials were important during this time (ECB nearly 2.5% while the FED cut to 0.25%) also inflation numbers in Europe was a bit higher than the US, Economic growth in the US was slowly and just barely better than the Eurozone as a whole. More importantly the FED was in full motion printing money (QE) while Europe was sitting tight.

On the externality side: Sure the Euro crisis threatened to make the EuroZone and the EU collapse. However and despite the emotional (lots of them) and political reasons, the economic implications of the largest trading block in the world, the second largest economic area in the world and making 15 of the 20 richest nations in the planet descent to chaos was a bit over fetch for any real large investor and country to just drop euros and make the pair disappear.

I don't need to tell you in detail how much things have change by 2014. For starters externalities of complete collapse and chaos has almost disappear (real fundamentals moves hate knee jerk reaction and emotional markets) and the fundamental side has almost 180 degree change in favour of the dollar....

In any case.... closing shop early today and getting ready for the new year !!!

sisse

New highs were done at 29th, not at 31th.

pulverized by the bears...
nfp my ass.
Happy new years buddy, i'll be back to trading 2nd week of Jan, looking forward to screw with more idiots who likes going against trend for position trades.

Sisse,

Your point just proved. US data not good, but USD Index went up to 90.52 and EU moved down!

Sounds great buddy! Have a nice New Years. I will be back then too.

So possibly keep shorting til breaks 1.19 then wait to see if by Q2 it hits 1.18, then buy long up until end of the year?
again thank you.

Fair enough!

Long 1.2125 ...tp 1.2182 sl 1.2115

Might get a new low in next 30mins

8hr chart....

US' data being not good is still better than europe.

60 pip tp and 100 pip sl? longing against the trend hmmm. good luck.
i see a low probability low profit factor trade.
you might as well throw your money in the drainage

Price has rejected the breakout at 1.2123 , there is a big chance to turns into an up movement , but still need waiting for a good movement .

happy new year folks, decided to give you all a gift.
heres a demo account i created specifically to share with you guys,
the trades there mirrors the trades i placed on my live account.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxty...andard/1104904

Please feel free to keep track.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

worth a shot last trade of 2014

excellent

have a good one