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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #54,121
  • Dec 30, 2014 4:43am Dec 30, 2014 4:43am
Quoting Dano12
http://www.efxnews.com/story/27415/c...-signal-ex-jpy
meaning further upside?
  • #54,122
  • Dec 30, 2014 4:59am Dec 30, 2014 4:59am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} No SL?? Take care friend.
Closed one long at small profit. SL now at 119.30
Expecting the pair to move higher and go trough the Ichi cloud on 1h TF if not and it goes south, will close trade and wait for better entry.
  • #54,123
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:05am Dec 30, 2014 5:05am
Quoting Sh0ukaT
@stringfx where do you recon UJ is headed? full retrace or bears are poking their heads out? start of a short term bear round?
As previously mentioned, the trend shows clearly up. This drop looks like a retracement to 50% and then resumption of the main trend, but since it is the year end, something smells fishy and i am not fully convinced. The reason being Us dollar Index is not going higher, so for a better picture, wait for the high of Uj to be taken out (121.84 in my chart) and then buy to 126 minimum.

This could also be an ABC retracement from the high of 121.84 (unless high taken out). It has done an A wave already and must have completed a b wave at current high of 120.80. In which case we will see prices lower for the C wave which will be 100% of the A wave. Here is a chart depicting what i am writing. Maybe it's still waiting for wave 4 completion lower and then turn higher for wave 5. Just my 2 cents ... Trade safe.!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Uj daily.JPG Size: 49 KB
STING
  • #54,124
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:08am Dec 30, 2014 5:08am
So buy high sell low
  • #54,125
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:09am Dec 30, 2014 5:09am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} As previously mentioned, the trend shows clearly up. This drop looks like a retracement to 50% and then resumption of the main trend, but since it is the year end, something smells fishy and i am not fully convinced. The reason being Us dollar Index is not going higher, so for a better picture, wait for the high of Uj to be taken out (121.84 in my chart) and then buy to 126 minimum. This could also be an ABC retracement from the high of 121.84 (unless high taken out). It has done an A wave already and must have completed a b wave at current...
Thanks alot

thats was pretty good analysis
  • #54,126
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:13am Dec 30, 2014 5:13am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} As previously mentioned, the trend shows clearly up. This drop looks like a retracement to 50% and then resumption of the main trend, but since it is the year end, something smells fishy and i am not fully convinced. The reason being Us dollar Index is not going higher, so for a better picture, wait for the high of Uj to be taken out (121.84 in my chart) and then buy to 126 minimum. This could also be an ABC retracement from the high of 121.84 (unless high taken out). It has done an A wave already and must have completed a b wave at current...

if SP500 go down = RISK OFF maybe something like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP500_D1_.gif Size: 165 KB
  • #54,127
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:13am Dec 30, 2014 5:13am
Quoting Ken A
So buy high sell low
Christmas greetings to our resident nutter...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #54,128
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:14am Dec 30, 2014 5:14am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Christmas greetings to our resident nutter...
Haha .........

Christmas to you and yours ........
  • #54,129
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:14am Dec 30, 2014 5:14am
I just had to post this, make of it what you will.

Happy New Year!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #54,130
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:16am Dec 30, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Ken A
So buy high sell low
Buy on a breakout .
STING
  • #54,131
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:23am Dec 30, 2014 5:23am
IMHO, USDJPY is likely to reverse from the horizontal support, near 119 and can re-test 120.70-80 resistance zone. Hence, it wold be better to buy on dips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #54,132
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:27am Dec 30, 2014 5:27am
People will ask "where is it going". It's really not too hard to work it out for yourself, or at least get a pretty good idea ........... Folks will talk about Abe San, they'll talk about news items, they'll argue that it it might go to this level or that level - but it's still going to be in a triangle.


-----------------------
Draw an equilateral triangle (that's an assumption only, but there is no other confirming data) , with the (1st) longest leg 121.8~115.3. The 2nd leg 115.3 ~120.8. We're presumably in the 3rd leg, which is always the fastest. As such, this leg could run down to just under 117. The 4th leg should rise to visit 120, then fall back to apex (centre) before heading up. Eventual conservative target = height of triangle, applied to last breakout from apex. At that point, it really MIGHT PEAK for a very large retrace during 2015.

Assume triangle centre at or about 118.6.

-----------------------

Anyway, I'm out of here. Good luck and Happy New Year everyone.
  • #54,133
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:42am Dec 30, 2014 5:42am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} As previously mentioned, the trend shows clearly up. This drop looks like a retracement to 50% and then resumption of the main trend, but since it is the year end, something smells fishy and i am not fully convinced. The reason being Us dollar Index is not going higher, so for a better picture, wait for the high of Uj to be taken out (121.84 in my chart) and then buy to 126 minimum. This could also be an ABC retracement from the high of 121.84 (unless high taken out). It has done an A wave already and must have completed a b wave at current...
Poor bearish action doesn't look like it can even make another low today
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #54,134
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:13am Dec 30, 2014 6:13am
Quoting Mpt
People will ask "where is it going". It's really not too hard to work it out for yourself, or at least get a pretty good idea ........... Folks will talk about Abe San, they'll talk about news items, they'll argue that it it might go to this level or that level - but it's still going to be in a triangle. ----------------------- Draw an equilateral triangle (that's an assumption only, but there is no other confirming data) , with the (1st) longest leg 121.8~115.3. The 2nd leg 115.3 ~120.8. We're presumably in the 3rd leg, which is always the fastest....
You mind posting a chart with this on?

S
  • #54,135
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:16am Dec 30, 2014 6:16am
traling with 50 pip
  • #54,136
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:23am Dec 30, 2014 6:23am
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} You mind posting a chart with this on? S
IMO it looks like some descending wedge is forming..

With two possible targets at the wedge base line 117.75 area and 116.35 area if this pattern continues to forming.

Happy New Year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ-Descending Wedge.jpg Size: 127 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,137
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:27am Dec 30, 2014 6:27am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} IMO it looks like some descending wedge is forming.. With two possible targets at the wedge base line 117.75 area and 116.35 area if this pattern continues to forming. Happy New Year {image}
Thanks Ata.

Happy new year to you too!
  • #54,138
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:29am Dec 30, 2014 6:29am
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Thanks Ata. Happy new year to you too!
You're welcome
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,139
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:02am Dec 30, 2014 7:02am
The 4h and D tf's still above thick Ichimoku cloud. Up trend still intact. If it manage to break trough 4h TF cloud it'll probably go further down. Will see what happens after US data.
  • #54,140
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:08am Dec 30, 2014 7:08am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} IMO it looks like some descending wedge is forming.. With two possible targets at the wedge base line 117.75 area and 116.35 area if this pattern continues to forming. Happy New Year {image}
Good catch Ata!
my view is bearish, if it goes up I will look to short.
My long term view is bullish, after touch 115 perhaps?
will see how it goes
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