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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #54,081
  • Dec 29, 2014 1:52am Dec 29, 2014 1:52am
Quoting pohchuan
{quote} Is this going to be Pro-Yen or anti-Yen? QE will continue and the impact of a high import & energy cost will be offset by ABE's latest package.
I do not mind what it is. I am already anti-yen now, till 121.85 is broken. Maybe after that I might consider being a pro-yen.
  • #54,082
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:10am Dec 29, 2014 2:10am
Might just 'mince' around and be bullish. Might be entering the 3rd and most aggressive stage of of a larger correction. Depends on what happens (if at all) at 120 and 119.5/6
  • #54,083
  • Dec 29, 2014 3:54am Dec 29, 2014 3:54am
LO consolidate for breaking up and higher hourly bar being tested,we need break that bar for going higher "if" we have enough volume
  • #54,084
  • Dec 29, 2014 4:38am Dec 29, 2014 4:38am
Hello Folks,

Hope everyone had splendid holidays and celebrations. I know i did.

We have very thin volume of trading so it's best to stay out unless you are looking in the range of 3-5 pips for quick in and outs. Although the main direction seems to be up, on my chart a daily fractal is formed indicating the end of a wave and we are already in overbought area. This could mean that we could retrace to at least 38.2 %. so my sincere advice is to wait it out until the retracement is over, so that you get a better price to go long. 38.2 retracement comes in at 118.78 in my chart and 50% comes in at 118.15.

If it does decides to move up from here without retracement, most probably it will be after new year (maybe the NFP). So unless the high is broken, there is a good chance for price to slowly chop down before going up again. Again just my 2 cents.

Here is my chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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STING
  • #54,085
  • Dec 29, 2014 6:58am Dec 29, 2014 6:58am
USDJPY re-testing the descending trend-line resistance. A break of 120.70 can trigger pair's up-move towards 121.80 in a quick run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,086
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:14am Dec 29, 2014 9:14am
Quoting Fx_Anil
USDJPY re-testing the descending trend-line resistance. A break of 120.70 can trigger pair's up-move towards 121.80 in a quick run. {image}
The points being tested on a rising TL ( 120.4, 120.6 and 120.7 thus far) may only be 'testing' a previous breakdown ( the move under 120.4 dropping down to 120.0 on Christmas Eve). What appears as a potentially bullish triangle right now may, in fact, be a bearish formation. It would need to decisively break the high at 120.8 to get up and confirm as a bullish structure.
  • #54,087
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:15am Dec 29, 2014 9:15am
For your analysis:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 435 KB


White bars are excessive volume.
  • #54,088
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:20am Dec 29, 2014 9:20am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The points being tested on a rising TL ( 120.4, 120.6 and 120.7 thus far) may only be 'testing' a previous breakdown ( the move under 120.4 dropping down to 120.0 on Christmas Eve). What appears as a potentially bullish triangle right now may, in fact, be a bearish formation. It would need to decisively break the high at 120.8 to get up and confirm as a bullish structure.
You short? Any particular bearish reason?
  • #54,089
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:21am Dec 29, 2014 9:21am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You short?
I am on GJ for other reasons.. The reason just outlined on UJ may suggest the same. Depends on break of the high or not. Back under 120.1 would support the argument.
  • #54,090
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:22am Dec 29, 2014 9:22am
Quoting stringfx
Hello Folks, Hope everyone had splendid holidays and celebrations. I know i did. We have very thin volume of trading so it's best to stay out unless you are looking in the range of 3-5 pips for quick in and outs. Although the main direction seems to be up, on my chart a daily fractal is formed indicating the end of a wave and we are already in overbought area. This could mean that we could retrace to at least 38.2 %. so my sincere advice is to wait it out until the retracement is over, so that you get a better price to go long. 38.2 retracement...
How do you trade the analysis or just analysis?

In case you didn't notice Hi - Lo 51 pips so far

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 47 KB


Quoting Mpt
{quote} I am on GJ for other reasons.. The reason just outlined on UJ may suggest the same. Depends on break of the high or not. Back under 120.1 would support the argument.
Same here on GJ

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,091
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:25am Dec 29, 2014 11:25am
Quoting Fx_Anil
USDJPY re-testing the descending trend-line resistance. A break of 120.70 can trigger pair's up-move towards 121.80 in a quick run. {image}
Totally agree, If we have a breakout above the 120.70 then prices may continue to go to the upside.
  • #54,092
  • Dec 29, 2014 12:08pm Dec 29, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} How do you trade the analysis or just analysis? In case you didn't notice Hi - Lo 51 pips so far {image} {quote} Same here on GJ {image}
How i trade is already mentioned in the post. I missed the entry from bottom thinking it was a bear run but had to switch to alt count since it broke my wave 2 high, so i now have to wait until price retraces a bit to join the bull. i am willing to wait than give in to big drawdowns by buying at higher levels.

Anyway, i don't know the aggression of your trades but i want a good swing. agreed 51 pips is good but i am not expecting any major movement, so staying aside. If you caught some of these 51 pips .. good on you! i would want to see price a little lower to buy into the trend as my earlier chart suggests.

Good and safe trades to all
STING
  • #54,093
  • Dec 29, 2014 12:24pm Dec 29, 2014 12:24pm
Up Up and Away
  • #54,094
  • Dec 29, 2014 12:27pm Dec 29, 2014 12:27pm
120.95 is big
  • #54,095
  • Dec 29, 2014 12:29pm Dec 29, 2014 12:29pm
S w e e t
  • #54,096
  • Dec 29, 2014 5:42pm Dec 29, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting csc2009
{quote} Totally agree, If we have a breakout above the 120.70 then prices may continue to go to the upside.
It seems that USD is being smothered against a wall - in all pairs. I'd like to see it breach, but just don't know how tradable it would be right now. Should it happen today or tomorrow, it may slowly meander up.
  • #54,097
  • Dec 29, 2014 8:36pm Dec 29, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The points being tested on a rising TL ( 120.4, 120.6 and 120.7 thus far) may only be 'testing' a previous breakdown ( the move under 120.4 dropping down to 120.0 on Christmas Eve). What appears as a potentially bullish triangle right now may, in fact, be a bearish formation. It would need to decisively break the high at 120.8 to get up and confirm as a bullish structure.
Should it hold above 120.3/5, it may well have another go at the top. In that case, it would have to break the top by more than about 10 ~15 pips to confirm bullish.

Conversely, a loss of 120.3/4 and 120.1 could bring a rapid drop.
  • #54,098
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:35pm Dec 29, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The points being tested on a rising TL ( 120.4, 120.6 and 120.7 thus far) may only be 'testing' a previous breakdown ( the move under 120.4 dropping down to 120.0 on Christmas Eve). What appears as a potentially bullish triangle right now may, in fact, be a bearish formation. It would need to decisively break the high at 120.8 to get up and confirm as a bullish structure.
Agreed Thanks for putting your points.
  • #54,099
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:36pm Dec 29, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting csc2009
{quote} Totally agree, If we have a breakout above the 120.70 then prices may continue to go to the upside.
Thanks for confirming the analysis.
  • #54,100
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:45pm Dec 29, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} Thanks for confirming the analysis.
ok sweetie
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