Chinese yuan (USD/CNY)

"China's overseas borrowings are leaving the country increasingly vulnerable to a rise in U.S. interest rates, potentially creating funding problems for some companies and tighter conditions for the financial system overall." source: Overseas loans expose China to US rate hikes - MarketWatch

In other news, HSBC today reported its final Composite and Services PMI figures for China for the month of July. Composite PMI came in at 51.6 vs. 52.4 in the prior month, snapping a three-month streak of improvements. The Services PMI printed at 50.0 vs. 53.1 for June, its lowest reading since the report was first published in August 2011.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_1.png

The Chinese Yuan fell against the US Dollar after the disappointing PMI numbers crossed the wires.

In addition, the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows that the ratio of long to short positions in USD/CNH stands at -11.77 meaning there are 11 retail traders who are short for each trader who is long. Yesterday the ratio was -11.16.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_19.png

SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, so the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that USD/CNH may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

The spread/volatility still prevents me from trading this, but interesting technical reactions, I think: bounce at the 50% of the big move upwards (red line) and 261.8% fib that I have. Might now build a new upmove, will monitor this.

Some time within the next year or so I expect a very big decline in the Chinese Yuan. The drop will be big and sudden just like when the YEN had climbed to under 80 to the dollar before falling to over 100 and hitting 110 this year. When exports start to decline I expect the Chinese Government to intervene to maintain its export numbers for GDP growth. Only a matter of time and when this will happen and not if..
http://news.yahoo.com/manufacturing-...--finance.html

A probable long term EW view of USDCNY. Expecting Yuan to continue increasing in value to the 4.6~4.7 area of USDCNY in a few years time before reversal.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...k-china-credit

6.5% interest for 1 week?? This has to be a mistake....

6.5% p.a., so 0.125% per week.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...december-2014/

with the Chinese economy taking number one spot America trying to desperately to hold onto im afraid us has had its turn and now Chinese will get to be top dog for a short while at least, from there who knows but now china is a very strong bet. this is a trade i want to hold for most of 2015 however will be changing depending on the updates we get in terms of economic data or what. Sometimes things change and forces you to change your trade, you haver to be flexible, this is not a mechanical trade. I got my NZDUSD trade spot on which we said from 8700 that we would see 7700 by new year and low and behold, 1000pips later. Anyway, I am making this post because there are many good reasons to be in this trade besides some technical analysis crap I dont really care about. there is a strong country backing for the medium term whereas the USD on the other hand has had most if not all the pricing in of its next interest rate and any of all possible growth in terms of the value to its currency. Also you are getting paid to hold this, so that is always a huge plus for most if you have swaps. Did I say its a pretty hefty swap? Again, if things change I will likely be a) out of this position or b) modifying my parameters for the trade plan. If not I will simply add more positions on the way down when i think it is good(hopefully dont get too greedy at that stage)


So again not going to make this too lengthy, im not here to convince anyone but i am open to rejections of this trade idea or if you have something of debate you want to post to long term trading go right ahead.


you want a chart? there you go

When China hide away its negative key data, isn't going Vegas offers you a better chance and fun experience to win?

Bottom line is when you trade CNY, you are exposing your capital to unexpected and uncontrollable risk that involves government cover-up and uncontrollable data due to the uniqueness in Chinese macro management in its economy. You will certainly have a hard time building your edge and improve your probability in the long run. No? =)

Chinese stimulus continues with devaluation of the Yuan

The Chinese Central Bank triggered the biggest one-day decline in the value of the Yuan in over 20 years.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station Desktop; prepared by James Stanley

This Yuan devaluation has created a ripple-effect, with commodities and commodity currencies selling-off.

As USD/CNH Surge Continues, US Dollar Suffers Elsewhere

Talking Points:

1. USD/CNH (offshore) advances over +2% overnight after yesterday's +1.8% gain.
2. Diversification flows hurting US Dollar, particularly versus the Euro.
3. See the August forex seasonality report.

it's been a long while since a real "TROJAN HORSE" has emerged from the Far East. This is in such plain sight it is invisible.

This is Treasury Tampering, China being a Mega IOU holder of debt is riging the casino. Gee Golly! Treasury units got a safe haven run Monday and Tuesday night. Then "WaLa." A magical ease back of near equal proportion. China being the rumored big seller benefiting directly from the stunt they pulled causing the Run! Now if a U.S. Citizen does something similar to this with a stock they've somehow got a morsal of insider scoop on they get the "Martha Stewart Treatment".

And we have started

IMF Says China Will Have to Wait Longer for Reserve Status, Yuan Drops

The Chinese Yuan will have to wait until late 2016 before the IMF will consider it as a reserve currency to be included in in the SDR basket. The Executive Board of the IMF approved the, previously discussed, extension of current SDR basket until September 30, 2016. The review of the SDR basket valuation occurs every five years and was due for December 31, 2015 but will now be extended an additional nine months.



In comparison to the large moves made by the Yuans last week - after multiple sharp declines following the Peoples Bank of China move to change its fixing mechanism - this expected extension had relatively small effect on the Yuan. However, excluding last weeks volatility, the 0.35 percent increase in USD/CNH was the largest in six months. In the chart above, we can see the movement in the USD/CNH compared to bigger moves during the change in exchange rate method early in the month.

Now this is freakin funny lol.. The Japanese Yen depreciates from around 79 to about 125 with no word out of China but when the Chinese Yuan depreciates 4% you get this from Japan's Finance Minister..
http://news.yahoo.com/japans-finance...070252680.html
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/08...ern-for-tokyo/

According to the latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), the ratio of long to short positions in the USD/CNH stands at 1.32 meaning there are 1.32 long positions for every short position among retail traders. Yesterday the ratio was 1.29; 56% of open positions were long.





SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of retail traders are long gives signal that the USD/CNH may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

I expect 4-5% depreciation from here. Short pops in Yuan.

Chinese Growth Falls Below 7% for First Time Since Financial Collapse

Summary:

1. Chinese GDP printed below 7% for the first time since 2009.
2. This raises concerns for a slowdown in Asia, but the expectation for more stimulus from Beijing has served to off-set the near-term weakness that such a print would bring.
3. For those looking for macro cues, watch US Oil (WTI), as this could serve as a leading indicator for macro trends moving forward.

US Treasury Adjusts Yuan Stance, Sees China Capital Outflows to Increase

Talking Points:

1. The Treasury estimates Chinese capital outflows of $250 billion in the first half of 2015
2. Views Chinas Renminbi remains below its appropriate medium-term valuation
3. US Treasury highlights IMFs concerns and solutions for Chinas economy

Euro to see biggest drop in IMF basket to make way for the yuan

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Details from the International Monetary Fund's new special drawing rights basket shows that the euro will see the biggest drop to make way for inclusion of the Chinese yuan. Effective Oct. 1, the new weighting of SDR currencies will be 41.73% for the U.S. dollar, 30.93% for the euro, 10.92% for the renminbi, 8.33% for the Japanese yen and 8.09% for pound sterling. The current basket is 41.9% dollar, 37.4% for the euro, 11.3% for the pound and 9.4% for the yen.

source: article on MarketWatch by Steve Goldstein