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Chinese yuan (USD/CNY)

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Apr 30, 2005 7:40am Apr 30, 2005 7:40am
Take a look at this article concerning the Chinese Yuan. Let's discuss this one guys.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/s.../GD29Ag03.html

Last week I shorted the USD/JPY with wide stop/limit on demo and it's been profitable.

Mark
Because helping each other is a good thing. ;)
Since the Chinese government is controlling the value of the Yuan, why would it be a good long term investment? They want to keep it low relative to the dollar to keep exports up.

Just curious.

Squid
Quoting AltosTrader
They are in Belize and if you are a US citizen cannot trade with them anyway unless you have an overseas operation from which to work.
Altos
Also since they are in Belize, you have to figure that killer volitale exchange rate between the us$ and the bel$. ( and a few more smileys for those of you who are in the know)
Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
Quoting Squid
Since the Chinese government is controlling the value of the Yuan, why would it be a good long term investment? They want to keep it low relative to the dollar to keep exports up.

Just curious.

Squid

Yes the Chinese government are controlling the value of the Yuan and want to keep it low in order to keep exports at competitive levels. However the US is running an enormous trade deficit which needs to be redressed. The US, G7 & World Bank are putting increasing pressure on China to allow their currency to appreciate in order to correct global inbalances. Fundamentally the Chinese currency is hugely undervalued and i am convinved there is only one direction in the medium-long term value of the currency. It will appreciate.
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:08am Jun 4, 2006 10:03am | Edited at 10:08am
Sounds interesting. But I think you will find plenty more good risk-reward scenarios out there that are easier and more legal than trading CNY. I'm very leery of Chinese financial markets and all the regulation and red-tape that they have in place. It's not foreigner friendly at all.


The theory goes that Yen and other asian currencies will rise in tandem with Yuan, so why not build a core position in those? It doesn't look as good with them does it?

The chinese government will likely move very slowly on this matter. What is the interest rates like there and what kind of rollover fees or interest will you collect? What is your timeframe -- are you prepared to hold it 10 years to get your 20% return (or whatever)... I get the sense that China is going to build up their internal economy to overtake the USA as the world's largest (indeed they must do it if they have any chance of avoiding 800 million poor people rebelling against their rich leaders). Only when they are economically stable will they willingly liberalize their currency markets 100% and open up their financial markets to more outside influence. To do so sooner would likely just damage or hinder their ability to do things internally quickly.

Any other thoughts? Good trading!
Any one know any broker offer trade China Yuen in Spot Forex?

I hope someone will help. Thank.
Well . I think it's to early to trade Yuan as retailer .Central banks are still prudent .It's still controlled by the Republican Central Bank Of China ...


you don't really think of trading the YUAN .. It's a silent killer now . It's highly and totally dominated by the Chinese Central Bank . No other counterparties can alter it's orientation ..

So don't be very enthusiast ...
:notworthy Lebtrader 1
You can trade Yuan crosses with futures on the CME. www.cme.com
Therefore what??
Moderator note:


I received a notice of a bad post, stating that a post was not acurate. This type of editorial review goes beyond the scope of a bad post, so I will not remove the post. It is one person's opinion.

Thanks much, Scott
Quoting gomoneygo
Any one know any broker offer trade China Yuen in Spot Forex?

I hope someone will help. Thank.

Try GCI Trading
Express Trade
Hi ..I thought this is a free forum to post our experience and opinions SMJONES .. Well simply i replied to another member's question .i'm a long experienced trader . I surely know that yuan is traded on many crosses .

I just replied with my experience .I know that many subscribers to this forum are newbies and begineers . I just want to post a free experienced opinion without being alerted > I suppose that's what a free and open forum is about .And i think many other posts on other threads i read seems to be jokes and kids " blablabla " over the net . Those posts should be alerted or deleted if u like .But if a brokerage firm or institution offering to trade the Yuan didn't like my opinion and took frm u time to post me an alert . i don't know what to say .>> You can delete my post .

I just thought for a while this forum is a good rising and shining one among many others focusing on Forex markets , but allow me to say Mr Moderator , i get disappointed ....
:notworthy Lebtrader 1
You know what I think happened? I bet the person who reported the bad post selected the button at the upper right on the post they wanted to quote, instead of the button at the bottom right. The upper button is for reporting spam posts... the button on the bottom is used to reply to someone with their quote included...

I have no idea why you would be upset with me, I specifically did not take action, because your post was fine... perhaps you have misunderstood the language...

Thanks Scott


Quoting lebtrader84
Hi ..I thought this is a free forum to post our experience and opinions SMJONES .. Well simply i replied to another member's question .i'm a long experienced trader . I surely know that yuan is traded on many crosses .

I just replied with my experience .I know that many subscribers to this forum are newbies and begineers . I just want to post a free experienced opinion without being alerted > I suppose that's what a free and open forum is about .And i think many other posts on other threads i read seems to be jokes and kids " blablabla " over the net . Those posts should be alerted or deleted if u like .But if a brokerage firm or institution offering to trade the Yuan didn't like my opinion and took frm u time to post me an alert . i don't know what to say .>> You can delete my post .

I just thought for a while this forum is a good rising and shining one among many others focusing on Forex markets , but allow me to say Mr Moderator , i get disappointed ....
It just occured to me that the currencies of two of the largest countries in the world are not represented in Forex (that I can see anyway). This made me wonder why and how does a currency get introduced into the Forex market? My brief scan of Google doesn't seem to mention anything...

Jason
don't know but they only made the rouble fully convertible in July. and the yuan is still far from being fully convertible.

it is funny because I think I was reading in the summer that Russians are demanding to be paid in roubles instead of USD because of the poor performance of the USD. But Russia was a USD based economy... e.g. buying a used car would be done in USD (I think) and many people would be paid in dollars.
Quoting ycomp
don't know but they only made the rouble fully convertible in July. and the yuan is still far from being fully convertible.

it is funny because I think I was reading in the summer that Russians are demanding to be paid in roubles instead of USD because of the poor performance of the USD. But Russia was a USD based economy... e.g. buying a used car would be done in USD (I think) and many people would be paid in dollars.
What do you mean by making them fully convertible?

Jason
Quoting jlowder
What do you mean by making them fully convertible?

Jason
Jason,in Russia one of three brokers has USD RUR pair.
It's the question of time RUR to become totally free currency.

Read here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5135946.stm
Quoting jlowder
What do you mean by making them fully convertible?

Jason

Igor answered the rouble question, as for the yuan... it used to be pegged at 8.something to the USD. For ages. American politicians didn't like this, so finally the Chinese allowed the yuan to float... but within a narrow band? still mostly pegged I think... it can only fluctuate slightly a few %?

But I can't remember if this allowed fluctuation is still based on the USD or a basket of currencies (like USD and Euro)?

anyhow, the point is that it is not really freely convertible.

and the other point is that it doesn't matter how convertible the yuan is, the US is still not going to be an attractive manufacturing base.

although I heard years back the China was too expensive for Nike, so Nike set up shop in Laos... and they are great workers in Laos, very nice people... only problem is they are buddhidsts and it is a tropical country... translation: they work incredibly slowly. So that plant wasn't much of a success for Nike.
Quoting jlowder
It just occured to me that the currencies of two of the largest countries in the world are not represented in Forex (that I can see anyway). This made me wonder why and how does a currency get introduced into the Forex market? My brief scan of Google doesn't seem to mention anything...

Jason
Both pairs can be traded on the CME.
I wonder when will the Chinese money yuan CNY be a regular in forex.
Currently, it has the most forex reserve in the world at over USD$1T. YEN is a major currency so why not YUAN?

Perhaps the answer is when the Chinese CB completely floats the CNY in open market. Hope to see that happen in my lifetime.

Should that happen, CNY will surely appreciate just like JPY 2 decades ago. Even if the appreciation is slow, I think it will appreciate perhaps at least by 500 pips in a year. I'd be buying CNY when this happens.
IMHO, China will not float CNY in these few years as its economy has just started to boom. It tooks them years (60 or so) of preparation to reach present growth.

China has more pressing problems to settle first, the top prority being minimising poverty and illiteracy percentage. The legislative and financial systems have also yet to improvise, to gain foreign investors' confidence. The china govt knows too well that they need these foreign investment but the question is how to attract/retain them. The political scene may seem stable but the fights are very dramatic and sometimes puzzling. The schools and higher learning institutions have incorporated English as their compulsory Second language as directed by the govt.

However, with all these preparations, its mass geographical and population sizes, it will take years to reach its desired level.

After staying in Shanghai for almost 2 years and seeing what China is capable/incapable to do, wthout the abovementioned preparations being installed and in place, I personal don't think the China govt has the intention to float CNY yet as its control is very complicated and complex.

Just my 2 pips.

Thomas
Forex is my business
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