USD/JPY Discussion

basically would stay away during xmas days, 2nd week of jan is a good time to start again.
exit all my manual shorts, flat at this pair. liquidity is thin.

For longer-term thinking:



Japan has debt > 200% of GDP; 25% of population >= 65. Economic collapse is unavoidable.

UJ to 200, 400, 600+?

(chart pilfered from ZeroHedge)

riding this slow ride up to new highs.. watching closely in case of any pullback so i can take profit.. will call it a week after GDP print most likely

dollar strong baby

Good call, but i'd suspect the 120.00 level would be a reasonable starting point as Fed heading into 2015 and the rate hike stage. This price would hardly be available for another 3 weeks tho. Well that's just my speculation.

Liquidation is expected to be quite thin due to JPY holiday today.
While USD GDP due in a bit over 12 hours, if you ask me where UJ might go for the time being, I'd think it would go NOT too far away from 120.00 level i suppose.

Volatility is eroding. On H1, ATR.20 was 24 pips at week's start, now 14.

As we get closer to christmas, traders will start adjusting their position/taking profits, this might take uj down to sub 119

That's kind of wishful thinking

Thanks..

I still await a rather sizable retrace.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post7942541

Wishing you all a Very Merry Christmas and a Wonderful New Year!

Chris

My view on UJ

On monthly EW, we have finished 4 waves and i was under the expectation of a 5th wave completion at 61.8 expansion, but it did not do so. The big boys did make a fall on dxy and Uj from 61.8 just to pick it up again and break the high. This made me change my count to make the monthly an extended 5 th wave. The 85.4% extension comes in at 126.50 and 100% comes in at 130.85. Chart attached.

On daily, breaking sown the start of the 5th wave on monthly, we have seen 4 waves to completion (not too sure if 4th wave is over). Assuming it is over, we are on the 5th wave. If you look at the chart we are moving towards the expected target of 61.8 ( 128.38). Fifth waves can truncate at any time so once the high is broken of the 3rd wave, i would be careful. Chart attached.

On 4hr chart,
From the start of the 5th wave up the minor waves subdivisions are as such :

We are approaching 161.8% of first wave at 120.33 for the termination of 3rd wave. After which we will get a drop for 4th wave and then a final thrust for 5th wave. (will be updated late on). Chart is self explanatory.

Again my 2 cents view .. Trade safe.

Brief conclusion:

If it's not going down then up .....

Well, so it seems especially with thin liquidty in the market, but its fx, anything can happen.

hi sweety

This retracementless PA is bullish IMO. Not to say there won't be one, but buyers will most likely pounce on any - incl me.

cad is motivated to push

https://charts.mql5.com/6/561/cadjpy...-division1.png

No short?

Strange

Euro as expected retraced, UJ 120.9 is next, RSI hourly/4hr point to overbought, so expect this level to hold

News are not that significant to send euro plummeting, this time Draghi won't come up with his ''whatever it takes to save euro''

EU started with this

Greece parliament rejects presidential nominee in second vote

bought euro off the lows, 2200 needs to be revisited