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Beyond the Candles

  • #2,161
  • Dec 17, 2014 10:57pm Dec 17, 2014 10:57pm
Quoting ponchofx
AUDUSD P is entering an area where we might expect reaction. Look at the confluence And if it closes below further downside action is expected towards old RM limits at around 0.71
AUD-USD I look more simple.

BO of RM and P going to his TG. Next we don't know. If P come back in the past RM (grey) we have a new TG
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  • #2,162
  • Dec 17, 2014 11:24pm Dec 17, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting Ttf
What do think of GBPAUD? The weekly bar closed above a weekly resistance. There's still an uptrend. On the daily chart we can find a Bullish Engulfing Bar. But I'm wondering if we can consider the indecision bar before it as a valid pullback .... Also, there's a pretty similiar situation with the AUDNZD
I think is so late now for a long trade. Need to wait a confirm M at the level 1.9131, a strong R. I think sellers now try to defend this level same do a few mounth ago.
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  • #2,163
  • Edited 4:10am Dec 18, 2014 3:58am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting Beertje
The big move on the rubel killed my trading plans on some pairs. Watch the east europian pairs, was not possible to entrer.
Do you trade those? I mean don't they have a huge spread?
BTW as you talked about the pullback on H1/H4, do you also trade lower timeframes than daily?
I also have got another general question: My original goal was to make an average (over a year) of +6% on my account per month with PA trading. Do you think this is a realistic goal?
  • #2,164
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:04am Dec 18, 2014 6:04am
Quoting Ttf
{quote} Do you trade those? I mean don't they have a huge spread? BTW as you talked about the pullback on H1/H4, do you also trade lower timeframes than daily? I also have got another general question: My original goal was to make an average (over a year) of +6% on my account per month with PA trading. Do you think this is a realistic goal?
I dont trade Rubel, but it can make moves on another pairs, can influence some Europian pairs. Watch SEK TRY NOK, I noticed they make incredible moves. Yes I trade on h4 too. My experience is, it is much more work, and until you don't learn to be profitable on D, you will lose on LTF. And dont think there are so many entries on H4....
Be happy when your average is 1-2% in a month.... it will show, you can trade profitable. Do not lean against yourself high standards, because you will be disappointed lot.
  • #2,165
  • Edited 5:31pm Dec 18, 2014 10:20am | Edited 5:31pm
In my humble opinion, the higher the TF you trade, the more the markets you will need to watch in order to take only higher probability trade.
The lower the TF you will go down to trade, the lower the markets that you can follow will be.
Let's make an example, you are a position trader who make only long term trades based on weekly charts, you will need to follow a huge quantity of stocks, commodities etc to find each time the right security to invest on...
Now you are a tick chart scalper, you will go crazy to follow 30 different crosses at the same time, you will probably focus only on the EURUSD...
Fortunately, the world is not black or white, it is full of nuances in the middle.
I agree with Beertje, LTF are inexperienced traders killers, before them you need to master the daily chart and prove yourself to be constantly profitable on it.
A 6% monthly, compounded, its over a 100% yearly, so i think it's a very difficult target to achieve (not impossible, nothing is impossible).
Trading only on the D chart, to avoid making bored/stupid/low probability trades, you can just follow more markets. Don't be limited only on the forex, you can trade with a broker that also offers indexes and commodities CFD, for example. All markets are driven by the same human greed and avidity. The price action will be similar but each market is played by different people and each one has its own personality, way of moving, cycles, patterns, etc...
Don't limit yourself, you can find out that you will be a great OIL trader, for example! I know people that trade only a certain stock, and they are very profitable on it!
  • #2,166
  • Dec 18, 2014 4:24pm Dec 18, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting Redbullish
In my humble opinion, the higher the TF you trade, the more the markets you will need to watch in order to take only higher probability trade. The lower the TF you will go down to trade, the lower the markets that you can follow will be. Let's make an example, you are a position trader who make only long term trades based on weekly charts, you will need to follow a huge quantity of stocks, commodities etc to find each time the right security to invest on... Now you are a tick chart scalper, you will go crazy to follow 30 different crosses at the...
  • #2,167
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:17pm Dec 19, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting Redbullish
Don't be limited only on the forex, you can trade with a broker that also offers indexes and commodities CFD, for example. All markets are driven by the same human greed and avidity.
I'm also looking at indices and commodities but I'm not sure if PA works with CFD... aren't they to illiquid?
For example intel:
on weekly it looks clean, but pretty choppy and with a lot of gaps on the daily...
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  • #2,168
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:59pm Dec 19, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting Ttf
{quote} I'm also looking at indices and commodities but I'm not sure if PA works with CFD... aren't they to illiquid? For example intel: on weekly it looks clean, but pretty choppy and with a lot of gaps on the daily...
CFDs are usually managed by brokers as Market Maker. Thus the CFD liquidity is only "internal" to them.
Most brokers have very few customers trading on any but the most famous (i.e. S&P 500, DAX and similar) securities, you should not trade CFD with such low liquidity.
In fact, it's not "just" price action that becomes very hard to read, if you put up an order it shall be taken at 10-20 and even 40 pips away from your desired price and spreads will be terrible.
Stick with liquid CFDs or switch to a broker big enough to have many customers trading even those less trafficked securities.
I know Intel sounds like something many would trade, and indeed they do. However many brokers only have 20-30,000 customers and most of them only trade currencies. Few trade the big indexes, even fewer the CFDs tracking shares.

Here is a broker showing better liquidity on Intel CFD:

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Last but not least: shares (CFD or not) are not totally similar to currencies. Gaps happen a lot more often even if you trade on the regular exchange. Also, some bars formations tend to be slightly different.
  • #2,169
  • Dec 21, 2014 1:53am Dec 21, 2014 1:53am
Thank you for the explanation dfumagalli!
I guess I will start watching the Excotics like EURTRY or USDSG before working with CFD. I think they are still more liquid than CFD...
But of course the spread sometimes is a problem, that's why I only watch Excotics with a spread lower than 50 pips.
  • #2,170
  • Dec 21, 2014 11:10am Dec 21, 2014 11:10am
EURTRY and USDSGD are great to start trading something different than the majors that everybody trades, if you trade with a high liquidity big broker off course!
Don't focus on the spread but on the value x pip.

For example, now with closed markets, on the EURTRY i have 1.6 pip spread with Armada, but the cost x pip its 0.35€ per 0.10 lots, when on the EURUSD is 0.82€ and on EURGBP is 1.28€, do your own math!
  • #2,171
  • Dec 23, 2014 3:57am Dec 23, 2014 3:57am
I wish you all merry christmas and a happy new year in advance! I'm off to skiing holiday now for the next days
  • #2,172
  • Dec 23, 2014 4:10am Dec 23, 2014 4:10am
Thank you Ttf ! I wish you all, and especially fxgroup, a calm and joyous Christmas time & a happy New Year !

I believe that reading and studying this thread has helped a lot of traders - and kept many out of bad positions.

For me it is especially noteworthy that fxgroups approach works equally well on stocks and Indices.

This is wonderful and I still feel like someone has lifted a veil, just showing what the true intentions of buyers and sellers are, and how to locate this on a simple chart without any indicators. Isn`t all of this amazing ?

Thank you !

M.
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Be like water.
  • #2,173
  • Dec 24, 2014 1:05pm Dec 24, 2014 1:05pm
I wish all of you Merry Christmas and a Verry Happy New Year !!!!
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,174
  • Dec 24, 2014 2:22pm Dec 24, 2014 2:22pm
Marry Christmas, and and many pips for next year!
  • #2,175
  • Dec 24, 2014 10:02pm Dec 24, 2014 10:02pm
Merry Christmas and happy nwe year for everybody.
  • #2,176
  • Dec 31, 2014 3:31pm Dec 31, 2014 3:31pm
HNY 2015 ! GL (good luck)

UJ_D1

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  • #2,177
  • Dec 31, 2014 8:52pm Dec 31, 2014 8:52pm
Happy new year for you too Dariusz and for alls in this Thread.

USD-JPY : attention to BRN 120, M close belove. Yen is always sensible to BRN
  • #2,178
  • Jan 2, 2015 1:08am Jan 2, 2015 1:08am
Hi Uidro tks for reply,

There were some option expired UJ on 31.12

USDJPY: 119.00 (USD 792m) 119.50 (USD 1bln) 120.00 (USD 2.2bln) , so now 120.166 speaks to me.

Will see how situation developes.
  • #2,179
  • Jan 2, 2015 2:19am Jan 2, 2015 2:19am
EU long has good tdi angle on M30 + pin bar on H1, only problem is tdi <32.
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
  • #2,180
  • Jan 2, 2015 4:17am Jan 2, 2015 4:17am
Quoting dfumagalli
{quote} Trendlines provide informations, not confirmations. Even when you get a strong confluence, you have to pull the trigger (set up an order) based on confirmations, informations just reinforce confirmations and give you feedback on the quality of your choices. As such, use them wisely. On the weekly chart you check the weekly bars and see if they do something relevant (a breakout, retracement...). On daily is should happen the same action. If it does not, by this method's basic rules you have to avoid trading when there'd discrepancy between...
Very good post, thank you !
Be like water.
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