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  • #945,461
  • Edited 9:30am Dec 20, 2014 8:50am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} go back pre 40 years,, that's where energy takes the world. all u.s. recessions since in the last 45 years were caused by oil spikes... that fact is less weighted now, to more null in the future. its more weighted to ones with, more energy cost comparably (Europe Asia). like it was prier to the 70ties. few of us here were trading then, there no experts. gold, oil, social unrest, in countries with oil, and many more things were posted before they were in the history books of today, and have long been posted here.. as well as the return of...
200 year commodity trend?

Still doing research...

Quote
In 2005, the
Quote
United States Department of Energy published a report titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.[124] Known as the Hirsch report, it stated, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." Some of the information was updated in 2007

Think we missed that boat...

Quote
Later, in 2010, Hirsch developed a projection that global oil production would begin to decline by 2015
<---did they hit it right on the nose or what?

There is a 7 year cycle in America specifically....1987 black monday, 1994 bonds, 2001 dot com bubble, 2008 housing market, 2015?
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  • #945,462
  • Dec 20, 2014 9:04am Dec 20, 2014 9:04am
Quoting illusiveman
i see MACD and PRice divergence on daily frame/ ??????
could be retracement in the making. possible target at 1.23692 for a minor retracement and 1.25019/26398 for a major one and still have a valid bear.

http://i62.tinypic.com/2n6vzpd.png
Used to work for Batman. That bastard fired me for poisoning his pet bat.
  • #945,463
  • Dec 20, 2014 9:05am Dec 20, 2014 9:05am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Not only that, .618 Fib Ret area is violated and broken, probability is for continuation up to .786 Ret.
actually i want to know, what's your fibs points beside 0, 38.2, 61.8 and 100 and why you plot that way? thankyou

when price touched the 119.90, im expecting a retracement as far as to 50% fib (117.7x) or even 61.8% (117.21). im reloading at 117.6 and 116.97 <<<low probability
  • #945,464
  • Dec 20, 2014 10:25am Dec 20, 2014 10:25am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} if support holds on EURCHF it is because ECB is doing absolutely nothing...NO QE...they will keep doing nothing on january, they only do their sh.t 1trillon on ABS and other fu.ck (started on november 2014...) if it had the effect of a QE, so why the support still hold? xD actually it isn't called "QE" this V.constancio says it himself, the inflation will be negative next months= no QE, they will only evaluate the situation......http://www.boursorama.com/actualites...5adab11f25ed03...
funny. the support only still holds because SNB lowered interest rates further but ECB QE hasnt started yet. i will however wonder how EURCHF can keep the floor when ECB goes into full blown QE.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,465
  • Dec 20, 2014 10:44am Dec 20, 2014 10:44am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Gator - if gold is worthless why do CB'a hold it - the Fed for instance supposedly has 8k tons and most CB's have been net buyers for the last 5+yrs? And why doesn't Amerika just send Germany/Austria their gold back if it's so worthless. Strong currencies are also helped when they are backed by the threat of huge militaries bombing the shit out of anyone who tries to use anything else. pssst - the ''strong'' dollar has lost abt 97% of it's purchasing power since the 70's, when it came off the...
prove it..with a reputable sight. not the foil hat ones
3 cents is close to 0. in your view. so whats the probable direction 0 or higher..
so as a trader, when the fed wanted it to drop it did. and when the fed wants a rise, what do u think will happen.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,466
  • Edited 11:37am Dec 20, 2014 11:18am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} interesting, do you agree with him? What would you take in the desert, bottle of water or gold? It indeed has no intrinsic value, but again, people get easily attached to everything that's shiny
i didnt start posting this when gold was near the current lows..it started when gold was at it highs. when many smart people were saying 2500 and 5000... .. the same with 200$ oil by some other smart people. a crash like 2008 was imminent because of oil/energy. the old rule of 72 is measurable. cheaper energy makes the affect opposite.. at 56$ we are still @ 2x 2001 prices. in July 2008 eu at 1.6 it dropped.. and since with all the massive printing with near 0 rates.. it never made it back.. pre 911 it was set to drop sub .8.. now the fed want s to raise and ecb lower..
emerging countries are getting away from ancient customs. they would rather have a i-phone over 1/2 ounce of gold for a status symbol.

what can i do with gold other then guard it? if i want your gold, i will just take it with some fast moving lead. but whats the point? then i would have to pay to have it guarded. me and others r unwilling to do this, makes gold worth-less. the guys with (lead) the power can take gold/oil if ever they chose. its just a trade, not an investment. u can trade it either way.. keep a few coins to pay the border guards when times get hard
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,467
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:46am Dec 20, 2014 11:46am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} funny. the support only still holds because SNB lowered interest rates further but ECB QE hasnt started yet. i will however wonder how EURCHF can keep the floor when ECB goes into full blown QE.
To answer your question why does SNB even attend using floor since its so expensive, the answer is rather simple. The point of all central banks at least g8 ones is to collaborate and keep ponzi fiat system going. Since CHF system is also ponzi one, SNB is obliged to not do much harm to nearby systems thus keeping its policy aligned. I am talking about Euro zone. If CHF would have not been floored in 2008 (coincindence eh?) and SNB would let CHF go wherever it wants, while ECB was proned to cuting rates, devaluing EUR , CHF would simply strenghten severely by capital outflows from EZ especially.

As for EURCHF yes, its good question how will SNB be able to defend floor with 50 pips room? I dont see how it could be possible. Big EUR slump could push it trough floor and trigger massive long SLs and ruin floor or make it very expensensive for SNB to re-create it. There is still 1 month till then lets see what happens. SNB conference is also on same day that ECB on 22nd so i think the main secret card will be delivered then regarding ECHF. Probably there is also chance they might re-floor it, using 200-400 pips lower floor, would not be surprising move.
  • #945,468
  • Edited 12:02pm Dec 20, 2014 11:46am | Edited 12:02pm
next week crosses of blue boxes and 2222/2233/2239...... we are below these making 2469 much harder to make it back to.. i still hope to get a (2469) reload before 2202 and a flying pony. hope and trading is a terrible thing.. lots of R.. 2280/82 2324, 2456... even 2408.. a 2469/77 swan song is a st thing..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,469
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:57am Dec 20, 2014 11:57am
  •  wng
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Merry Xmas and Happy New Year all! | 44 Posts
2380 next week...to 24
  • #945,470
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:59am Dec 20, 2014 11:59am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} To answer your question why does SNB even attend using floor since its so expensive, the answer is rather simple. The point of all central banks at least g8 ones is to collaborate and keep ponzi fiat system going. Since CHF system is also ponzi one, SNB is obliged to not do much harm to nearby systems thus keeping its policy aligned. I am talking about Euro zone. If CHF would have not been floored in 2008 (coincindence eh?)
what floor, eur/chf 1.2?
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} and SNB would let CHF go wherever it wants, while ECB was proned to cuting rates, devaluing EUR , CHF would simply strenghten severely by capital outflows from EZ especially. As for EURCHF yes, its good question how will SNB be able to defend floor with 50 pips room? I dont see how it could be possible. Big EUR slump could push it trough floor and trigger massive long SLs and ruin floor or make it very expensensive for SNB to re-create it. There is still 1 month till then lets see what happens. SNB conference is also on same day that ECB...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,471
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:14pm Dec 20, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what floor, eur/chf 1.2? {quote}
yES.
  • #945,472
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:15pm Dec 20, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting wng
2380 next week...to 24

I don't know it looks very unlikely....

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Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #945,473
  • Edited 3:02pm Dec 20, 2014 12:26pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} funny. the support only still holds because SNB lowered interest rates further but ECB QE hasnt started yet. i will however wonder how EURCHF can keep the floor when ECB goes into full blown QE.
I understand what you say, is very logical!
But do you think that US want to have a strong currency? This affects their exports because their products become more expensive for their foreign clients. In time, this thing will increase unemployment.
Are you sure that EU'll make a QE?
US "live" from loans and by printing $.
Are you sure that US will not make a QE before EU?
If all the people sell e/u and all articles say that e/u will go down, my questions are: WHO BUY E/U AND WHY?!
If all the people are short who are the fools who are long?
  • #945,474
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:42pm Dec 20, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} To answer your question why does SNB even attend using floor since its so expensive, the answer is rather simple. The point of all central banks at least g8 ones is to collaborate and keep ponzi fiat system going. Since CHF system is also ponzi one, SNB is obliged to not do much harm to nearby systems thus keeping its policy aligned. I am talking about Euro zone. If CHF would have not been floored in 2008 (coincindence eh?) and SNB would let CHF go wherever it wants, while ECB was proned to cuting rates, devaluing EUR...
this is why i asked 1.4303 was the floor in 2008...in 2011, 1.0064, so i am confused it appears, or something else
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,475
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:46pm Dec 20, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} prove it..with a reputable sight. not the foil hat ones 3 cents is close to 0. in your view. so whats the probable direction 0 or higher.. so as a trader, when the fed wanted it to drop it did. and when the fed wants a rise, what do u think will happen.
US bombed Libya back to stone age coz Gaddafi was gonna launch his gold backed Dinar and sell his oil for Dinars not dollars - Before that they bombed Saddam after he started selling oil in euros - now you are bombing Syria and guess what - Syria sells oil for gold. Russia sells oil in Yuan Rubles - anything except Dollars but Putin has a better military than US so u can't bomb him, oh and unlike Obomba he's got a backbone. Now you'll probably say that is all coincidence or conjecture - but you gotta admit there does seem to be a pattern emerging here.

Re the Feds gold - sorry can't prove they have 8k tons, trouble is I don't think the Fed can either,

In theory the Dollar's purchasing power can(and probly) will keep dropping until it reaches it's intrinsic value zero, same as all currencies

Thought you were gonna tell me why the Fed has so much gold?
  • #945,476
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:47pm Dec 20, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} yES.
it seemed to be off
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,477
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:49pm Dec 20, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} US bombed Libya back to stone age coz Gaddafi was gonna launch his gold backed Dinar and sell his oil for Dinars not dollars - Before that they bombed Saddam after he started selling oil in euros - now you are bombing Syria and guess what - Syria sells oil for gold. Russia sells oil in Yuan Rubles - anything except Dollars but Putin has a better military than US so u can't bomb him, oh and unlike Obomba he's got a backbone. Now you'll probably say that is all coincidence or conjecture - but you gotta admit there does seem to be a pattern...
and how does this help your trading?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,478
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:54pm Dec 20, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} US bombed Libya back to stone age coz Gaddafi was gonna launch his gold backed Dinar and sell his oil for Dinars not dollars - Before that they bombed Saddam after he started selling oil in euros - now you are bombing Syria and guess what - Syria sells oil for gold. Russia sells oil in Yuan Rubles - anything except Dollars but Putin has a better military than US so u can't bomb him, oh and unlike Obomba he's got a backbone. Now you'll probably say that is all coincidence or conjecture - but you gotta admit there does seem to be a pattern...
This thread is becoming a joke, too many people posting shit like this ^ no facts, pure speculation and opinion. No use to any one.

Trade what you see on the charts, not what you hear/ read on the internet.
  • #945,479
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:57pm Dec 20, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} and how does this help your trading?
Don't think I ever said it does - except my gold and silver stash just keeps growing bigger while the Fed keeps gifting me these bargain prices.

BTW I'm long dollar atm bcoz although I think it is worthless, it's still worth a bit more than the Yoorow LOL.
  • #945,480
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:59pm Dec 20, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} US bombed Libya back to stone age coz Gaddafi was gonna launch his gold backed Dinar and sell his oil for Dinars not dollars - Before that they bombed Saddam after he started selling oil in euros - now you are bombing Syria and guess what - Syria sells oil for gold. Russia sells oil in Yuan Rubles - anything except Dollars but Putin has a better military than US so u can't bomb him, oh and unlike Obomba he's got a backbone. Now you'll probably say that is all coincidence or conjecture - but you gotta admit there does seem to be a...
i wish i could trade your tin foil theory, because my stop/loss could be just .03$.. verses some good reward.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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