EURUSD | Page 47270 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #945,381
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:23pm Dec 19, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} yep..world still using dollar. But did you hear about BRICS?? They are already avoiding dollar. When the Us rates increase, the demand for dollar will be decreased. Then the scenario which I've talked about balloon bursting happens. That is the only reason, they kept low interest rates since last few years..They are fooling the public by showing fake recovery or growth.
have you not see how Russia could collapse badly in 1 night?? who do you think was behind the devaluation of Russia's ruble?
its a hard fact to swallow but the truth is US is still very much in charge of the world economy....

in fact even if US interest rates rose up to 3%.... we may see another market collapse but i start to wonder will it be US again? or will it be on the emerging markets thats using the US Dollar as a medium of exchange who are exposed?
my guess is the emerging market suffering if US interest rates goes up to 3%. but it does not necessarily mean US would collapse.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,382
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:25pm Dec 19, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well theres NO inflation in Europe wana know why?? ECB printing money isnt getting filtered down to people's pocket to actually SPEND!!!!, the only reason why inflation in europe seem to be a lethargic problem is because there isnt much domestic demand. which is understandable given the fact that Europe's economy isnt spending..... Europe is under a strong regime of austerity meaning the work to keep government balances in check where tax revenue meets government expenditure. so it means increasing taxes and lowering spending on infrastructure,...
By no means i said there is no inflation in EU(or there is high inflation). No point in my post said that.

There is a LOT of inflation in EU. But there is not as much inflation as it could have been in EU or US due to reasons you explained. Anyone paying bills and living in EU can see that for last several years. I know how QEs work, so their impact on inflation is very limited. Thats why ECB measure on inflation and targeting inflation as QE trigger is one big bullcrap. Whoever wants to believe that go ahead.

Financial markets want QE. FED, ECB, BOJ whatever, whoever. It has to happen. If FED doesnt deliver, and BOJ is already giving it, ECB is on the line to do so.
Thats all i am gona say, 22nd Jan. EUR DOWN.
  • #945,383
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:25pm Dec 19, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} When FED starts hiking there is going to be bloodsheed on markets. Current rubble crisis is not gona be anything to what happens when FED starts hiking.
Question im wondering. if Fed starts hiking.... will it be US market collapse? or the Emerging Market Collapse.... you know.... a lot of emerging market still uses the USD as medium of exchange and the fact that Emerging market economy is at the mercy of Dollar Flows... when interest rates in US begins to rise.... Fund manager will start to wonder.... "shit interest rates in US are at 3% why dont i just keep my money in US and not invest in emerging market?" when that happens you will see large fund flows out of emerging market and back into the US economy..... so US economy may not collapse but US' neighbours may suffer.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,384
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:27pm Dec 19, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} By no means i said there is no inflation in EU(or there is high inflation). No point in my post said that. There is a LOT of inflation in EU. But there is not as much inflation as it could have been in EU or US due to reasons you explained. Anyone paying bills and living in EU can see that for last several years. I know how QEs work, so their impact on inflation is very limited. Thats why ECB measure on inflation and targeting inflation as QE trigger is one big bullcrap. Whoever wants to believe that go ahead.
thats why ECB also looks at employment in the Eurozone... and Employment in Eurozone is not recovering as fast. Spain still fucked with terrible high youth unemployments....

Theres literally no "Demand Push Inflation" the good type, because people in europe are unemployed. so they dont have income to spend their money on stuff... and no money to buy stuff means prices of stuff has to fall, means falling inflation.

Luxurious good prices fly high because suppliers dont have the incentive to produce anymore as theres no demand for it...
Inferior good prices (the inflation basket) prices fall... because people are spending less and less on these as their income gets tightened....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,385
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:29pm Dec 19, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} have you not see how Russia could collapse badly in 1 night?? who do you think was behind the devaluation of Russia's ruble? its a hard fact to swallow but the truth is US is still very much in charge of the world economy.... in fact even if US interest rates rose up to 3%.... we may see another market collapse but i start to wonder will it be US again? or will it be on the emerging markets thats using the US Dollar as a medium of exchange who are exposed? my guess is the emerging market suffering if US interest rates goes up to 3%. but...
There is no difference between EM and USA. Its all the same. FED is what flows markets. Enough said. When it collapses IMF will take a role in 2016 or 18.
  • #945,386
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:31pm Dec 19, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} There is no difference between EM and USA. Its all the same. FED is what flows markets. Enough said. When it collapses IMF will take a role in 2016 or 18.
thats not what i see.
US market is surprisingly decoupled from the world economy....
europe experieince fund flow out
emerging market experienceing fund flow out.
and all this money is going back to the US.....
so US economy is rising on the benefit of collapsing emerging market, and europe.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,387
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:40pm Dec 19, 2014 2:40pm
So someone is asking me where the EURUSD is headed for the year of 2015.
heres a forecast chart with multiple bank's forecasts.
Consensus is for EURUSD to continue under selling pressure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR= Forecast Curve.png Size: 194 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,388
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:43pm Dec 19, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats not what i see. US market is surprisingly decoupled from the world economy.... europe experieince fund flow out emerging market experienceing fund flow out. and all this money is going back to the US..... so US economy is rising on the benefit of collapsing emerging market, and europe.
Well you made on very critical misstake in your judgment. Becouse all your analysis is based on rates lower/ higher.
2008 onwards capital started to flow into EM big time. Billions. As FED and ECB start to ZERP.
Now 2014 Fed starts to talk rates up, what happens....capital reverses. And its only beginning.
When FED really starts to hike, capital from EM will really properly reverse and flow into USA, drain EM. Thats what bubble creators and controlers do. They can flow capital whichever way they want, as long as they control main currency which is world reserve currency.

So basically what you said is basically all correct as long as you back it by interest rate functionality.

Why did SNB cut rates just while ago hehe. Obviously. When ECB starts to print the only way to defend CHF from massive rally is to create negative deposite environment for CHF banks and prevent capital outflows.

Thats what its all about. Most people dont get it. Its all about protecting wordls reserve currency USD. EUR policy just happens to be adjusted to it.
  • #945,389
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:47pm Dec 19, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Well you made on very critical misstake in your judgment. Becouse all your analysis is based on rates lower/ higher. 2008 onwards capital started to flow into EM big time. Billions. As FED and ECB start to ZERP. Now 2014 Fed starts to talk rates up, what happens....capital reverses. And its only beginning. When FED really starts to hike, capital from EM will really properly reverse and flow into USA, drain EM. Thats what bubble creators and controlers do. They can flow capital whichever way they want, as long as they control main currency...
why do i have a feeling that what you wrote there is just supporting my argument a few post back where i said the rate hike in US may not be a bad thing for the US economy but rather the emerging markets and europe may suffer?
look rate hike in US is gona attract fund flows back to the US, so yes interest rates rise in US may cause a new financial crisis but may not necessarily be in the US.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,390
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:49pm Dec 19, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Well you made on very critical misstake in your judgment. Becouse all your analysis is based on rates lower/ higher. 2008 onwards capital started to flow into EM big time. Billions. As FED and ECB start to ZERP. Now 2014 Fed starts to talk rates up, what happens....capital reverses. And its only beginning. When FED really starts to hike, capital from EM will really properly reverse and flow into USA, drain EM. Thats what bubble creators and controlers do. They can flow capital whichever way they want, as long as they control main currency...
Hey buddy, when are you releasing your money making robot you were promoting on babypips?
YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #945,391
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:51pm Dec 19, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting santos23
{quote} Hey buddy, when are you releasing your money making robot you were promoting on babypips?
probably never and its best you dont trust robots. you are better off learning how to trade than to rely on a robot that doesnt adapt well to changing market behaviors in the long run.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,392
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:51pm Dec 19, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} why do i have a feeling that what you wrote there is just supporting my argument a few post back where i said the rate hike in US may not be a bad thing for the US economy but rather the emerging markets and europe may suffer? look rate hike in US is gona attract fund flows back to the US, so yes interest rates rise in US may cause a new financial crisis but may not necessarily be in the US.
Thats exactly what i was saying. So yes up to point.
  • #945,393
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:53pm Dec 19, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting santos23
{quote} Hey buddy, when are you releasing your money making robot you were promoting on babypips?
Santos its in development, robot is trading market sturctures and techincal sturctures, as soon as its ready to go i will let it be released. It has been in development for 1 year, developing EA based on solid technical rules takes a long time, thats why it took so long without solid release.
  • #945,394
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:55pm Dec 19, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Santos its in development, robot is trading market sturctures and techincal sturctures, as soon as its ready to go i will let it be released. It has been in development for 1 year, developing EA based on solid technical rules takes a long time, thats why it took so long without solid release.
im interested to know what type of techs is it based on?
cuz almost all tech based robots i have seen, even the ones in banks dont always get it right... heck some even make an amazing bomb to kill a firm... heard of Knight Capital?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,395
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:56pm Dec 19, 2014 2:56pm
Excellent , now that we are one family again , can we agree on parity by Q2 2016 , so I can start writing calls asap ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #945,396
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:00pm Dec 19, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Excellent , now that we are one family again , can we agree on parity by Q2 2016 , so I can start writing calls asap ...
well i dunno if fed is gona hike it to 3% at Q2 2016.
but you can get an idea here...
some people thought i was nuts to even suggests fed interest rates to get as high as 3%. but i guess the fed is as nuts as i am...
Attached Image

Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...bl20141217.pdf
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,397
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:05pm Dec 19, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} why do i have a feeling that what you wrote there is just supporting my argument a few post back where i said the rate hike in US may not be a bad thing for the US economy but rather the emerging markets and europe may suffer? look rate hike in US is gona attract fund flows back to the US, so yes interest rates rise in US may cause a new financial crisis but may not necessarily be in the US.
Thanks for your posts fxtyrant, please keep them coming, very interesting.

I only trade usdjpy at the moment, but come here mainly for your posts and the ones from the stalwarts such as gator, ptl, sisse etc.

Please keep up the good work.
  • #945,398
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:06pm Dec 19, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Thanks for your posts fxtyrant, please keep them coming, very interesting. I only trade usdjpy at the moment, but come here mainly for your posts and the ones from the stalwarts such as gator, ptl, sisse etc. Please keep up the good work.
much appreciated
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,399
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:06pm Dec 19, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im interested to know what type of techs is it based on? cuz almost all tech based robots i have seen, even the ones in banks dont always get it right... heck some even make an amazing bomb to kill a firm... heard of Knight Capital?
Its based on my own chart research, miles of charts. Pretty much everything that public net provides....debunked (simply becouse most is 50.-50). Then used my own rules to define. I dont want to define it properly becouse EA/indie is sell license to be planned which would make me full to describe it fully to be resold. Its based on structural PA analysis mostly (trend definition (conceptual+more precise lows highs)) . structural bottom/top definition based on non convetional rules, rally plunge rules of base creation of supply and demand after it, depending on supply and demand drainage and SL use of it, spring fbos, basic fbos, bounce fbos .

But dont jump onboard as non-described techs becouse i wont go in details. It would make sale go to 0 as i am sure you understand.
  • #945,400
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:09pm Dec 19, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Its based on my own chart research, miles of charts. Pretty much everything that public net provides....debunked (simply becouse most is 50.-50). Then used my own rules to define. I dont want to define it properly becouse EA/indie is sell license to be planned which would make me full to describe it fully to be resold. Its based on structural PA analysis mostly (trend definition (conceptual+more precise lows highs)) . structural bottom/top definition based on non convetional rules, rally plunge rules of base creation of supply and demand...
okay.
im just worried you maybe wasting your time in an endless project and realize by the time when its finally completed it may not be profitable because market behavior may have changed by the time you got it running.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
398 traders viewing now