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EURUSD

  • #944,821
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:44am Dec 18, 2014 5:44am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Euro is pegged with the Swiss Franc at 1.2 if SNB drops interest rates, puts pressure for ECB to drop their as well to keep EURCHF at 1.2
That is rather incorrect. There is no peg, its only "preffered" floor. Peg means CB has two boundries at which sells and buys certain pair to keep it in narrow range, SNB only is maintained to buy. Cut of interest rates for SNB puts no pressure on ECB, it actually lifts the pressure, becouse with QE approaching ECB knows it will put strong pressure on ECHF floor as EUR will drop, therefore rate cut for SNB was rather expected thing to do to give ECHF room to breath once ECB unleashes hell.
In any case SNB rate cut is signal i was waiting for to confirm my QE view. Its coming in January in my analysis.
  • #944,822
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:45am Dec 18, 2014 5:45am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Didn't held the roll so noise to come until is solved... In any case, as expected from yesterday FED, setting the low of the year in play. Last full week of trading too so only monthly levels in action after the daily breach 1.237x. sisse
2323.5 is 1/2 way between 2606 and 2041.. atm we are below what bulls need to cross starting at 2335.. atm all this with trend, is good for bears.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #944,823
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:46am Dec 18, 2014 5:46am
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD 15 Mins Bfly Looks like this move will target 1.2366 at least. {image}
Yes indeed open now shorts is risky.

Maybe in a couple hours when usa data is coming out.
  • #944,824
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:49am Dec 18, 2014 5:49am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} That is rather incorrect. There is no peg, its only "preffered" floor. Peg means CB has two boundries at which sells and buys certain pair to keep it in narrow range, SNB only is maintained to buy. Cut of interest rates for SNB puts no pressure on ECB, it actually lifts the pressure, becouse with QE approaching ECB knows it will put strong pressure on ECHF floor as EUR will drop, therefore rate cut for SNB was rather expected thing to do to give ECHF room to breath once ECB unleashes hell. In any case SNB rate cut is signal i...
someone needs a spanken. i didnt get the memo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #944,825
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:49am Dec 18, 2014 5:49am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Cable trying to reverse ... momentum there still down also, but generally bears getting weaker on cable ..

if I get a chance at 5687 I might try there...

edit, 5691 might even be better...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #944,826
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:54am Dec 18, 2014 5:54am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} Yes indeed open now shorts is risky. Maybe in a couple hours when usa date is coming out.
Second low of the pattern is invalidation point and can be used to trade in case of failure, generally when they fail, they fail miserably!!
Yes I agree, a higher point to sell would be better, preferably according to a plan so you can get out in case that plan doesn't confirm.
Watch this low 5 min chart, if that holds we are good for that level.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #944,827
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:55am Dec 18, 2014 5:55am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} if I get a chance at 5687 I might try there... edit, 5691 might even be better...
what about 5595 you got anything there ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #944,828
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:59am Dec 18, 2014 5:59am
EU M30

selling force absorption. not a good idea to short now.

http://i61.tinypic.com/qojeqq.jpg
  • #944,829
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:03am Dec 18, 2014 6:03am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} if I get a chance at 5687 I might try there... edit, 5691 might even be better...
That is looking good to me. Sharp pullback after bearish moves ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #944,830
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:04am Dec 18, 2014 6:04am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} what about 5595 you got anything there ...
for longs, no, I don't favor them right this second....if you put a gun to my head, and I had to pick a spot for a cheap flyer, thing I would look at 5608/15
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #944,831
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:07am Dec 18, 2014 6:07am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} That is looking good to me. Sharp pullback after bearish moves ...
It's starting to not look like a pull-back anymore ... they're trying hard to roll it over ... still on the edge tho.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #944,832
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:08am Dec 18, 2014 6:08am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} That is rather incorrect. There is no peg, its only "preffered" floor. Peg means CB has two boundries at which sells and buys certain pair to keep it in narrow range, SNB only is maintained to buy. Cut of interest rates for SNB puts no pressure on ECB, it actually lifts the pressure, becouse with QE approaching ECB knows it will put strong pressure on ECHF floor as EUR will drop, therefore rate cut for SNB was rather expected thing to do to give ECHF room to breath once ECB unleashes hell. In any case SNB rate cut is signal i was waiting...
lots of room.. 5k worth, scaling in
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 18 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #944,833
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:09am Dec 18, 2014 6:09am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} That is looking good to me. Sharp pullback after bearish moves ...

but it looks like its been played before there, still might have some play, other wise 5709/12 is another spot to lay some cheese down...or call it 5704/12...yea, the more I look, that would be a nice spot, prolly some stops in the area just below there...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #944,834
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:10am Dec 18, 2014 6:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} lots of room.. 5k worth, scaling in {image}
Yes on upside.
  • #944,835
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:12am Dec 18, 2014 6:12am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} but it looks like its been played before there, still might have some play, other wise 5709/12 is another spot to lay some cheese down...or call it 5704/12...yea, the more I look, that would be a nice spot, prolly some stops in the area just below there...
Thanks for sharing your experience with me mate. That gives good food for thoughts.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #944,836
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:15am Dec 18, 2014 6:15am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} for longs, no, I don't favor them right this second....if you put a gun to my head, and I had to pick a spot for a cheap flyer, thing I would look at 5608/15
right , 5609 was where it bounced off of after the figures ... if it goes to 5680-95 , hourly TL (5670) will have been broken...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #944,837
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:19am Dec 18, 2014 6:19am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Thanks for sharing your experience with me mate. That gives good food for thoughts.
anytime bro..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #944,838
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:20am Dec 18, 2014 6:20am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes on upside.
i see that.. no retrace after b/o is my concern
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #944,839
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:23am Dec 18, 2014 6:23am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} right , 5609 was where it bounced off of after the figures ... if it goes to 5680-95 , hourly TL (5670) will have been broken...
problem is, its still all in the shadow of the large FOMC down bar, if that means anything to you, however, the one thing is has going for it, is that its in the bar that took 5601 out, the high of the post fomc bounce, which held for a dozen hours or so, plus that bar is wickish also...so I have mixed feelings...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #944,840
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:25am Dec 18, 2014 6:25am
double bottom
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