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  • #944,321
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:33am Dec 17, 2014 7:33am
well this shit going down, cpi -0.3% and it moved 10 pips... shorting now
  • #944,322
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:40am Dec 17, 2014 7:40am
Quoting RomanBubenik
well this shit going down, cpi -0.3% and it moved 10 pips... shorting now
This isn't going anywhere until FOMC. Also negative CPI would make it LESS likely for the FED to hike rates...Which would push EURUSD up...
  • #944,323
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:41am Dec 17, 2014 7:41am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} This isn't going anywhere until FOMC. Also negative CPI would make it LESS likely for the FED to hike rates...Which would push EURUSD up...
meh...I think everyone knows the rate hike isn't coming. (Chances are slim)
  • #944,324
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:44am Dec 17, 2014 7:44am
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} meh...I think everyone knows the rate hike isn't coming.
no one knows anything...which is why the market isnt traveling in one direction...If you know the direction then put your money down. Until then anything can happen don't say something is fact yet when it is not. But yes rate hike very unlikely but not impossible.
  • #944,325
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:44am Dec 17, 2014 7:44am
5h left.. a 2507 drift is possible prier
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #944,326
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:45am Dec 17, 2014 7:45am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} This isn't going anywhere until FOMC. Also negative CPI would make it LESS likely for the FED to hike rates...Which would push EURUSD up...
nah, if u look back and take whole previous month:

Building Permits - positive
Ratail Sales - positive
Unemployment - positive
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - positive
Manufacturing PMI - positive
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - PMI
Non-farm Employment Change - positive

there were much more positive like negative data
  • #944,327
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:45am Dec 17, 2014 7:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not sure myself. i see your point and agree with 262x and even near 2800 is possible. my entries and stops are atm in green. as in the plan to look for shorts 2480/2599 for weeks.. i wanted to place a bigger short near 2599.. it never happened. my plan is to ride this to 2125, subject to change.
I got the play for the same swing but I am flat after the last breach 1.248x. I lost confidence on the shorts right now cause the Ruble and the flows to Euro. However, a deeper retrace to 1.26xx/1.27xx will be a lot healthier for a break beyond 1.215x in the next leg ....

Techincally, and shorter term I will only consider playing the long to 1.265x after a test to at least the low of the 1.24 handle. A breach below 1.238x will make me miss the train to the down side... I will make my final decision with the FED.

Let see how it pans out.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #944,328
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:49am Dec 17, 2014 7:49am
Quoting RomanBubenik
{quote} nah, if u look back and take whole previous month: Building Permits - positive Ratail Sales - positive Unemployment - positive Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - positive Manufacturing PMI - positive ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - PMI Non-farm Employment Change - positive there were much more positive like negative data
Dude inflation is the biggest factor in raising or lowering interest rates. You can't do anything without it...
  • #944,329
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:51am Dec 17, 2014 7:51am
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD 1.2448 is the only level I am interested in, that is .786 Ret H1, the last hope for reversal.
EURUSD
This level held, 1.25 is next level where shorts could be added for move to 1.2370.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #944,330
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:51am Dec 17, 2014 7:51am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Dude inflation is the biggest factor in raising or lowering interest rates. You can't do anything without it...
You can adjust inflation to show as much as you want your rate policy to become. Bam.
  • #944,331
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:55am Dec 17, 2014 7:55am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} You can adjust inflation to show as much as you want your rate policy to become. Bam.
Doesn't change the fact that inflation is the biggest factor in when to raise/lower rates??? Don't see the point in your post. Whether or not the numbers are made up or not the inflation #'s are what a central bank are looking at when they decide to expand or constrict the money supply? Simple Econ 101.
  • #944,332
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:56am Dec 17, 2014 7:56am
so everyone here is looking to short eurusd. therefore, my bet is that at FOMC today it will go up
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #944,333
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:57am Dec 17, 2014 7:57am
Bounce off bottom of upward channel on 4hr. 1.245 looks like holding could go back inside channel and stay around there until FOMC.
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  • #944,334
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:59am Dec 17, 2014 7:59am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} This isn't going anywhere until FOMC. Also negative CPI would make it LESS likely for the FED to hike rates...Which would push EURUSD up...
true , not expecting rates to be hiked until next year winter , any time before that will really be a surprise
  • #944,335
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:00am Dec 17, 2014 8:00am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Let's see. A close above the cross and I'm intraday long with targets at 2508 and 2532. {image}
Didn't happen.

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Still haven't worked out a scenario for longs on FOMC. A close below 2430 for the week and I'm still interested in the lows of this swing. I'll be accept the bottom only once 2520 is taken.
  • #944,336
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:00am Dec 17, 2014 8:00am
Quoting leeon
so everyone here is looking to short eurusd. therefore, my bet is that at FOMC today it will go up
you sure you talked to everyone?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #944,337
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:01am Dec 17, 2014 8:01am
Quoting gatorinla
5h left.. a 2507 drift is possible prier
1.2041 to 1.3992 up move retraced more than %76.4. %75 retracement is about 1.2529 %76.4 is about 1.2501. It looks like those numbers become resistance now.
  • #944,338
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:01am Dec 17, 2014 8:01am
Quoting leeon
so everyone here is looking to short eurusd. therefore, my bet is that at FOMC today it will go up
Not necessarily, even if price is going to move up a touch lower is only logical, 1.2370 would be good.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #944,339
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:03am Dec 17, 2014 8:03am
1.2423 first before 1.2606
If You Can't Join Them, Beat Them!
  • #944,340
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:06am Dec 17, 2014 8:06am
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