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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #2,581
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:40am Nov 21, 2014 1:40am
nice day, eh?
  • #2,582
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:41am Nov 21, 2014 1:41am
Note that Weidmann is on the mic in about 30 minutes.
  • #2,583
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:37am Nov 21, 2014 2:37am
Quoting bartholemew
Convinced of the price move, I presume? My comments about what the Fed might do were purely hypothetical. But I think at the last Jackson Hole shindig with Bernanke at the helm there were some papers aired about taking care not to cause too much emerging market volatility w/Fed QE exit and eventual tightening.
Yes. I closed and reversed but I was surprised at the momentum. I tend to trade technically, break outs mostly, and the tight range leading up to the conference was a typical set up for me. However, it is always interesting to learn about fundamentals and so thank you for your input.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,584
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:42am Nov 21, 2014 2:42am
This morning I am seeing support for the Euro coming from the SNB, presumably. The price is wavering above the 1.2 peg but I think they are using Cad, Aud and Nzd as levers.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,585
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:51am Nov 21, 2014 2:51am
Thanks for reminder on SNB floor proximity. EUR/CHF is such a slow motion trade that I seldom look at it.
  • #2,586
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:56am Nov 21, 2014 2:56am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Yes. I closed and reversed but I was surprised at the momentum. I tend to trade technically, break outs mostly, and the tight range leading up to the conference was a typical set up for me. However, it is always interesting to learn about fundamentals and so thank you for your input.
I'm mostly technically oriented as well, however as I mentioned before I've been burned in the past trading pairs like EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD based only on those charts w/out analyzing the crosses vs. the majors. To me, a EUR/GBP chart is more twitchy and unpredictable than a EUR/USD chart. Yet the fundamental contrast between EUR and GBP is reasonably stark IMO to expect the EUR/GBP longer term downtrend to continue. Looks like an easy 0.7900 short term, a retest of 0.7800 in a few days/weeks at most, and lower if we get a one two punch of a conciliatory Buba and more hot UK economic prints.
  • #2,587
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:27am Nov 21, 2014 3:27am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Yes. I closed and reversed but I was surprised at the momentum. I tend to trade technically, break outs mostly, and the tight range leading up to the conference was a typical set up for me. However, it is always interesting to learn about fundamentals and so thank you for your input.
Well done on close and reverse - it's psychologically difficult for some to do. It's important to purge any emotional baggage (positive or negative) from closed trades quickly, and look at each new trade with fresh new eyes. The market doesn't know or care what it is doing to your individual account or your individual psyche.
  • #2,588
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:57am Nov 21, 2014 3:57am
Quoting bartholemew
{quote} Well done on close and reverse - it's psychologically difficult for some to do. It's important to purge any emotional baggage (positive or negative) from closed trades quickly, and look at each new trade with fresh new eyes. The market doesn't know or care what it is doing to your individual account or your individual psyche.
Thanks. I agree. I'm still getting used to the market taking those decisions for me. I tend to use stop orders for this reason.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,589
  • Nov 21, 2014 5:05am Nov 21, 2014 5:05am
Short EUR/AUD looking interesting again too w/overnight surprise China stimulus goosing the AUD. Currently at support level but the market loves to break support levels.
  • #2,590
  • Nov 26, 2014 2:03pm Nov 26, 2014 2:03pm
My long term view.

We could have completed wave 2.
The red line has to be broken to invalidate count.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If it does, this is my prefered count.
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  • #2,591
  • Nov 27, 2014 5:12am Nov 27, 2014 5:12am
Happy Thanksgivings to all americans....

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/i...WT_SWVlS-HKrlZ
The Chonchy
  • #2,592
  • Dec 1, 2014 3:38pm Dec 1, 2014 3:38pm
EUR/GBP long targeting 0.7950... Let's make this thing move!
Attached Image
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #2,593
  • Dec 7, 2014 12:00am Dec 7, 2014 12:00am
I'm planning to take a short at 0.79480 with a 10 pip stop.
Target 1 will be 30 pips away.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,594
  • Dec 11, 2014 7:20am Dec 11, 2014 7:20am
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  • #2,595
  • Dec 12, 2014 12:47am Dec 12, 2014 12:47am
Quoting zenoniel
I'm planning to take a short at 0.79480 with a 10 pip stop. Target 1 will be 30 pips away. {image}
Haha! Great.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,596
  • Edited Dec 16, 2014 3:01am Dec 15, 2014 11:08pm | Edited Dec 16, 2014 3:01am
Took another set-and-forget short. It opened on 16/12, around midnight SGT.

Timeframe: 4H

Entry: .797
Stop: 16 pips
Target: .793

Log

16/12, 0000 - Trade live
16/12, 1445 - Moved stop to .79625
16/12, 1500 - GBP Bank Stress Test Result (Doesn't seem to be affected much?)
16/12, 1600/1630 - EUR Flash Manufacturing reversed this and stopped me out for 7.5 pips profit. :/ meh
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp stopped out.PNG Size: 51 KB
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  • #2,597
  • Dec 16, 2014 1:27am Dec 16, 2014 1:27am
We overshot your number but I think the 09:30 might reverse this?
Gone to a better place
  • #2,598
  • Dec 16, 2014 3:02am Dec 16, 2014 3:02am
Quoting smikester
We overshot your number but I think the 09:30 might reverse this?
It sure did!
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  • #2,599
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:48am Dec 16, 2014 6:48am
Last week's high here at .7950. When this goes it could open the flood gates. I wonder if people are selling roubles and buying pounds?
Gone to a better place
  • #2,600
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:02pm Dec 16, 2014 11:02pm
Looks like a leading diagonal [i] pointing to the upside. If it stays above or not too far from 61.82% area, expect good upside potential. While the invalidation point of this view is around 0.7842.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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