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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #2,561
  • Nov 18, 2014 9:23am Nov 18, 2014 9:23am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Hey Bartholemew, thanks for your input. I see what you are saying longer term trend-wise, but we are testing July highs on the daily chart at the moment. I don't advocate longs, but we know what can happen when highs get taken out...
For a short term trade, anything can happen. On a longer term fundamental view I think EUR has few if any reasons to trade higher against GBP. Maybe against JPY, but not against GBP.
  • #2,562
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:52am Nov 19, 2014 1:52am
hi friends any idea about this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #2,563
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:25am Nov 19, 2014 2:25am
Quoting lossertrader
hi friends any idea about this... {image}
Eur/Gbp has broken strongly out of a tight range to the upside, after a fake to the downside (15 minute chart). If that were my trade it would have been closed 30 minutes ago and I would be annoyed. Of course, I am frequently wrong.
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  • #2,564
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:38am Nov 19, 2014 2:38am
yeah I also closed the trade..And thanks for your advice.
  • #2,565
  • Nov 19, 2014 6:12am Nov 19, 2014 6:12am
Quoting lossertrader
yeah I also closed the trade..And thanks for your advice.
Hmm. Quite nasty price action following the MPC votes
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  • #2,566
  • Nov 19, 2014 10:38am Nov 19, 2014 10:38am
IMO EUR/GBP runup this time was fueled by GBP/USD downward momentum (no support levels nearby) as well as EURUSD wavering on the QE debate between ECB and Buba. But (again, IMO) EUR/GBP doesn't have a good reason to trend higher over the longer term (weeks to month). It's just that the countertrend rallies are sharp and unpredictable in timing and magnitude so they shake and fake people out (including me).
  • #2,567
  • Nov 19, 2014 6:38pm Nov 19, 2014 6:38pm
Eyeing the 0.8000 level in early Asian section. It is falling off from the 15M 200 SMA level.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
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  • #2,568
  • Nov 19, 2014 10:47pm Nov 19, 2014 10:47pm
We may need to see capitulation from the Bundesbank on EUR QE before this short trade can really work.

They could have their heads up a donkey's rear end and they'd probably say "hey, it's a little dark in here, but I'm pretty sure I see some inflation."
  • #2,569
  • Nov 20, 2014 1:19am Nov 20, 2014 1:19am
Classic flip - trend line test, break and retest on the H4 chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp141120h4.JPG Size: 83 KB


Seen here on the weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp141120w1.JPG Size: 101 KB
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  • #2,570
  • Edited 1:45am Nov 20, 2014 1:34am | Edited 1:45am
Just my opinion as always but I think technical analysis is just plain harder on pairs where the economies are tightly coupled (e.g. EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD, etc.) Longer term it's about relative monetary policy expectation and relative economic performance but short to medium term it's about the performance of the individual currencies relative to the majors. So GBP/USD apparently not having any support on the daily chart while EUR/USD is in congestion means that EUR/GBP can have its little fling above descending trend channel lines for as long as GBP can't catch a break. IMO EUR/GBP chart can never be used to trade technically just by itself - need to supplement with analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD charts.
  • #2,571
  • Nov 20, 2014 2:37am Nov 20, 2014 2:37am
Maybe the weak German PMI print just now will give the Buba a reason to finally not see inflation everywhere, just this once, at least for a little while.
  • #2,572
  • Nov 20, 2014 3:32am Nov 20, 2014 3:32am
Hot UK retail sales print just now drawing a contrast between EUR and GBP, hot stuff.
  • #2,573
  • Nov 20, 2014 4:01am Nov 20, 2014 4:01am
Quoting bartholemew
Hot UK retail sales print just now drawing a contrast between EUR and GBP, hot stuff.
I hope it sticks for you. .8000 was always going to be a tough level.
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  • #2,574
  • Edited 4:52am Nov 20, 2014 4:22am | Edited 4:52am
One other thing - the Fed is probably at least thinking about what would be the effects of an uncontrolled USD melt-up on the global system. They could theoretically send some of their doves out to make some soothing rate hike comments in an attempt to try to make the USD more of a two way trade. If this happened, I'd expect it to boost GBP/USD more than EUR/USD since clearly ECB has more stimulus work ahead of it than BOE, and GBP/USD has been nearly straight down for four months while EUR/USD has been lurching back up every few weeks as the dysfunctional family that is the Eurozone debates endlessly, while the economic data continues to roll in mostly weak.
  • #2,575
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:44am Nov 20, 2014 5:44am
I'm still holding some longs. You can see pretty convincing technical lines, yet to be confirmed as a break from the channel and thereby a trend change. I can wait.

From a fundamental aspect, I'm not happy that the UK election next year is going to be good for the UK or for the traditional parties. In the meantime, the markets are confirming their unease about the uncertainty. The UK is a part of what you describe as a "dysfunctional family". Unfortunately, the UK is behaving like the lary adolescent of the family at the moment, fuelled by distasteful anachronistic nationalist tendencies. Since Europe is our biggest trading partner and shows no sign of giving up on the EEC, I don't think any of this will be good for the pound. If I were an investor, I might be looking at other countries to place my risk. We have already seen signs of the UK creaking. The Scottish vote was by no means a landslide. Ulster can no longer fly the Union Flag. Wherever you look in England you see the George Cross more often than the Union Flag. Not healthy, in my opinion.
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  • #2,576
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:50am Nov 20, 2014 5:50am
Quoting smikester
I'm still holding some longs. You can see pretty convincing technical lines, yet to be confirmed as a break from the channel and thereby a trend change. I can wait. From a fundamental aspect, I'm not happy that the UK election next year is going to be good for the UK or for the traditional parties. In the meantime, the markets are confirming their unease about the uncertainty. The UK is a part of what you describe as a "dysfunctional family". Unfortunately, the UK is behaving like the lary adolescent of the family at the moment, fuelled by distasteful...
...Hello smikester, hope all is fine with you and yours.....
The Chonchy
  • #2,577
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:57am Nov 20, 2014 5:57am
Hi Chonchy. Thanks and the same to you.

And another thing. If we do short off .8000, I wonder what the target should be? Are we going to get stuck in the 2008 range?
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  • #2,578
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:47pm Nov 20, 2014 6:47pm
We had Eur/Gbp bouncing from the resistance yesterday, let's see what's next for this pair.
  • #2,579
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:14am Nov 21, 2014 3:14am
Quoting bartholemew
One other thing - the Fed is probably at least thinking about what would be the effects of an uncontrolled USD melt-up on the global system. They could theoretically send some of their doves out to make some soothing rate hike comments in an attempt to try to make the USD more of a two way trade. If this happened, I'd expect it to boost GBP/USD more than EUR/USD since clearly ECB has more stimulus work ahead of it than BOE, and GBP/USD has been nearly straight down for four months while EUR/USD has been lurching back up every few weeks as the dysfunctional...
OK, I'm convinced.
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  • #2,580
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:36am Nov 21, 2014 3:36am
Convinced of the price move, I presume? My comments about what the Fed might do were purely hypothetical. But I think at the last Jackson Hole shindig with Bernanke at the helm there were some papers aired about taking care not to cause too much emerging market volatility w/Fed QE exit and eventual tightening.
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