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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,761
  • Dec 16, 2014 12:26pm Dec 16, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} OANDA US platform. Anyway, this is one looks interesting {image} {image}
I will stay away from NOK, SEK, TRY, RUB, .....

It's too late now, shoulda long from mid 2014 .... but the negative swaps are crazy
  • #53,762
  • Dec 16, 2014 12:28pm Dec 16, 2014 12:28pm
dang went to bed 2 hours later price shoots more down and almost touches the 115.3-4 level...congrats to those that longed it there...great price.
  • #53,763
  • Dec 16, 2014 1:30pm Dec 16, 2014 1:30pm
Gidday Yen

Gave the YEN tree a prune

top heavy

carrying to many lemons

Gave back a couple weeks of profit

Still holding longs

In a short to 115
  • #53,764
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:10pm Dec 16, 2014 2:10pm
Would not be surprised to have tomorrow see more USD selling, a "Christmas surprise". USD/JPY to 115, EUR/USD to 1.26.

Cannot see the fed becoming too hawkish tomorrow with the way things are going right now. They'll end up keeping considerable time and saying they will re-assess the situation early next year, but since oil keeps going down, and stock markets aren't doing so hot, if they remove it tomorrow they could crash the stock market and wreak havoc on the rest of the world.

A good time to bust out the old crystal ball..
  • #53,765
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:39pm Dec 16, 2014 2:39pm
seems like asia will attempt to test 115
As Above, So Below
  • #53,766
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:42pm Dec 16, 2014 2:42pm
The bears are strong with this one
  • #53,767
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:42pm Dec 16, 2014 2:42pm
Can anyone elaborate why Asia should test the 115 level? I see people mentioning it, but despite recent past reaching this level I do not see any other justification why should we see 115 level matched again. Your constructive insights are much appreciated.
  • #53,768
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:49pm Dec 16, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting paka
Can anyone elaborate why Asia should test the 115 level? I see people mentioning it, but despite recent past reaching this level I do not see any other justification why should we see 115 level matched again. Your constructive insights are much appreciated.
Too

Exactly because of this. Many do not expect it, and all the furious buying from 115.50 to 117 today also left a trail of stop losses right to 115.

If the stock markets keep going down, people buy the jpy because it is somehow a "safe haven" asset. I read an article yesterday that claimed the yen is strengthening because oil is dropping and people hedge their oil trade risk by buying yen.

I think many of these are excuses and people like to gun for stops because once you start triggering some, it's easy money cause it just keeps falling and triggering more. Then you also get everyone starting to short/buy and this just helps more. The overall momentum is still down right now. And since the world markets seem so shaky, others are probably starting to decide that the FOMC minutes tomorrow may still turn out dovish wishy-washy, and considerable time may not be removed just yet.

Another guess I would take is that the USD is falling across the board lately because people are taking profits on trades they entered last spring/during the summer that are very profitable. And since the USD keeps falling, more of these people may decide to take their profits while they still can, in case the dollar doesn't rebound as fast as expected. It is also almost year end and this could be another reason for booking some profits.

example: look at what happened as soon as it crosses 117, massive stops triggered. Let's see what happens if it gets back to 116.50 and crosses that lol.
  • #53,769
  • Dec 16, 2014 3:23pm Dec 16, 2014 3:23pm
gps please

http://s21.postimg.org/u6u7irrnr/uj17_12_14.png

[/url]screen shot windows
  • #53,770
  • Dec 16, 2014 4:01pm Dec 16, 2014 4:01pm
back in 116.6 after having perfect entry at 117.3 and canceling it at BE because of consolidation.... This is looking like going to 115 for sure.
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  • #53,771
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:03pm Dec 16, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting thegmann
back in 116.6 after having perfect entry at 117.3 and canceling it at BE because of consolidation.... This is looking like going to 115 for sure. {image} {image}
got stopped out BE after being up around +20-30 pips looked promising for breakout...may still happen, but ill be watching other S/D zones.

117 looking interesting.
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  • #53,772
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:04pm Dec 16, 2014 6:04pm
ahhhh USDJPY is tanking badly this weekkkk....
  • #53,773
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:07pm Dec 16, 2014 6:07pm
Usd/Jpy broke below several support levels and hit as low as 115.55 despite US data today. Let's see U/J would break the important psychological level of 115.00.
  • #53,774
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:08pm Dec 16, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting peeterwoolf
Usd/Jpy broke below several support levels and hit as low as 115.55 despite US data today. Let's see U/J would break the important psychological level of 115.00.
It might happen in less than 24 hours now! =)
  • #53,775
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:51pm Dec 16, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote}Too Exactly because of this. Many do not expect it, and all the furious buying from 115.50 to 117 today also left a trail of stop losses right to 115. If the stock markets keep going down, people buy the jpy because it is somehow a "safe haven" asset. I read an article yesterday that claimed the yen is strengthening because oil is dropping and people hedge their oil trade risk by buying yen. I think many of these are excuses and people like to gun for stops because once you start triggering some, it's easy money cause it just keeps falling...
Thanks for the update!

I am a little bit mixed on FOMC. That is a real game changer. Guess we will just have to wait and see.
  • #53,776
  • Edited 7:28pm Dec 16, 2014 6:54pm | Edited 7:28pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} got stopped out BE after being up around +20-30 pips looked promising for breakout...may still happen, but ill be watching other S/D zones. 117 looking interesting. {image} {image}
^
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  • #53,777
  • Dec 16, 2014 8:01pm Dec 16, 2014 8:01pm
Bearish: Mthly candle Wkly candles support my decision

$ near 2007 June hi @ 124.13
RSI ob @88.7(Mthly)

SL @125
  • #53,778
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:40pm Dec 16, 2014 11:40pm
Before the pair regains some clear trend, I slowly refocus to a different pair. Current USDYEN situation is more like a lottery. The confirmation of this, in past days, are all the losses many of you have taken. For the moment, EURUSD bear seems more predictable.
  • #53,779
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:54pm Dec 16, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting paka
Before the pair regains some clear trend, I slowly refocus to a different pair. Current USDYEN situation is more like a lottery. The confirmation of this, in past days, are all the losses many of you have taken. For the moment, EURUSD bear seems more predictable.
?? they're both in the same exact situation. Taking a position now until FOMC (unless we see some clear cut signal or your scalping) is gambling on either EU or UJ. Both pairs can either go up or down very quickly depending on CPI and FOMC tomorrow. FOMC should give us direction of trends listen for the "considerable time" key words if you hear them EU going up UJ going down. If you don't and language is more hawkish we could see resumption of trends EU down UJ up. If FOMC decides to f*ck the free world (pardon my french) and raise rates tomorrow . Expect MASSIVE sell off of EU and HUGE jump in UJ. GL
  • #53,780
  • Dec 17, 2014 12:22am Dec 17, 2014 12:22am
Option Expiries 10AM EST New York Cut:

USDJPY 115.00 (USD 500m) 116.25-30 (USD 440m) 116.50 (USD 1.6bln) 116.75 (USD 410m) 117.00 (USD 603m) 117.20 (USD 560m) 118.25 (USD 1.4bln) 119.50 (USD 4.8bln)

The unit has been dancing in the clouds for a good 6 Hours now.
Anticipate a break to the upside, though all action Above: 117.00 USDJPY / Below: JPYUSD (6JH5) so far has been stalled out.
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"Look Left Think Right"
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