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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,621
  • Dec 15, 2014 8:04pm Dec 15, 2014 8:04pm
It's gonna head down more as part of the retrace
  • #53,622
  • Dec 15, 2014 8:12pm Dec 15, 2014 8:12pm
If close below 117.30 - I am out
  • #53,623
  • Dec 15, 2014 8:13pm Dec 15, 2014 8:13pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Thin market plus all the data on wed...they moving the markets which ever way they want...LOL They do not want any retailers on this move up thats for sure.
At this point, all I can say is squeeze 10~30pips on the bounce/correction back from psychological supports and resistance. That's the only thing that's working so far; forget fibonacci pivot points. They're getting rejected left and right.

I'm looking for price to dip lower at this rate-unless of course, the news data for the british pound in 2 hours and 46 minutes changes things.
  • #53,624
  • Dec 15, 2014 8:35pm Dec 15, 2014 8:35pm
one for sure....this correction is a great opportunity for having a good profit in the near future...

fall baby fall

venceremos
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #53,625
  • Dec 15, 2014 8:42pm Dec 15, 2014 8:42pm
Folks,

Good morning . Just read all the previous posts and that has made me write these few lines.
Gj has broken the low. EJ has broken the low and now UJ has broken the low. For me it's a confirmed bear trend. I have sold my first small position on UJ.
I have been screaming 'Bear" right from the start when us dollar index started it's reversal but all the perpetual bulls in the forum is trying to find some fundamental reason to buy this pair. First it was the japan election. Landslide victory yet UJ did not even budge a little, didn't even break the previous retracement high. ( frankly i thought it will do at least 10 pips above so that i can short it. didn't give me that opportunity). Now it is the FOMC. Just how is the FOMC going to push the dollar up? for the last 2 weeks the index is struggling with weak dollar.
For those who are aware of the carry trade will know exactly that wednesdays are usually bullish on yen pairs as it's a triple interest day, so many traders would like to long the yen pairs with higher interest rates like the NZ/JPY, so i am also expecting that from the start of wednesday, we will see Uj going up until the evening but FOMC might drop a bomb in the meeting which could bring this pair down a lot, so please don't rely just on FOMC to save your longs.
Anyway, these are my 2 cents as usual. Please take this in the right spirits or as ramblings of an old man.. regards
STING
  • #53,626
  • Dec 15, 2014 8:57pm Dec 15, 2014 8:57pm
I'm short. There's a lot more where this came from.
  • #53,627
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:13pm Dec 15, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting stringfx
Folks, Good morning . For those who are aware of the carry trade will know exactly that wednesdays are usually bullish on yen pairs as it's a triple interest day, so many traders would like to long the yen pairs with higher interest rates like the NZ/JPY, so i am also expecting that from the start of wednesday, we will see Uj going up until the evening but FOMC might drop a bomb in the meeting which could bring this pair down a lot, so please don't rely just on FOMC to save your longs. Anyway, these are my 2 cents as usual. Please take this...
Wow. Never heard of this. Thanks.
  • #53,628
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:39pm Dec 15, 2014 9:39pm
Since Uj has broken the low.. Here is my technical view:

we have seen a major waver 1 and was looking for a retracement in wave 2. The best confirmation that the wave 2 completion is the break of low of the 1st wave. Now since the 1st wave low is broken, it's time to sell small.. there will be retracements up due to the oversold conditions. this will give more opportunities to sell. This chart will give a better picture.

The first chart is a medium term bearish view.

The second chart is for short term bearish view.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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STING
  • #53,629
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:50pm Dec 15, 2014 9:50pm
ooops, forgot to mention that the previous technical analysis is my 2 cent view. please take it with some grains of salt. Trade safe and put your SL in place. It's not a carved or etched in stone stuff. I could be completely wrong and the big boys can reverse the tables anytime...
STING
  • #53,630
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:53pm Dec 15, 2014 9:53pm
This has been the experience of the classic "Buy the rumor Sell the fact scenario" Awaiting the next Drama scenario to dribble the ball North again.

I preached the reversal on this idiotic run up for several weeks, I got bored with my own doctrine and very short term flipped the script.

Selling the USDJPY has become the evident obvious action, and the cool thing is you don't even need a chart to trade it down either!
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #53,631
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:59pm Dec 15, 2014 9:59pm
cast joking aside though. This is an odd time frame to ponder action from yet I have seen it be the show stopper before.
*Consider the 12HR chart is showing price has entered the "Kumo Cloud" within the hour.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #53,632
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:02pm Dec 15, 2014 10:02pm
Think there will be more downward move, but not even venturing to predict price. Last night I was convince it will bounce at 117.42 Looking at daily chart this morning, 116.5 looks possible.
  • #53,633
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:02pm Dec 15, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
cast joking aside though. This is an odd time frame to ponder action from yet I have seen it be the show stopper before. *Consider the 12HR chart is showing price has entered the "Kumo Cloud" within the hour.
Appreciate if you can you please put a chart up. I'd love to see other technical analysis as well.. Reading is no fun. Picture speaks 1000 words.Thanks
STING
  • #53,634
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:04pm Dec 15, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} On weekly - (mine closes 2 hours into Sunday night ) we have a near perfect hit and rejection of the last major swing's 161.8 extension. Again a good sign. If the pattern holds by the ratio (they do more often than not) I'd expect an overall primary target of 111.803 with a rather strong reaction at 114.865. Should that give way, test and hold the primary target is likely with a potential extension to SR at 110.615. {image} On daily - We have a range of 118.940 to 117.223. Fib of the last major daily swing puts the 61.8...
Should be interesting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,635
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:04pm Dec 15, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
This has been the experience of the classic "Buy the rumor Sell the fact scenario" Awaiting the next Drama scenario to dribble the ball North again. I preached the reversal on this idiotic run up for several weeks, I got bored with my own doctrine and very short term flipped the script. Selling the USDJPY has become the evident obvious action, and the cool thing is you don't even need a chart to trade it down either!
....you got the charts the wrong side up.....

Jokes aside, can you post your ichi charts pls. tq
  • #53,636
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:13pm Dec 15, 2014 10:13pm
check this weekly performance of the major currencies. If you notice, Jpy is the best performer in the week and cad is the worst. Now take a chart of cadjpy or gbp/jpy and check it. you will have a good edge as to which yen pair to trade. Now together with EW, the possibilities are better to improve on your winnings. In fact the usd jpy is the worst of the pairs to trade according to this report. Food for thought ??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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STING
  • #53,637
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:13pm Dec 15, 2014 10:13pm
Option expiries 10AM EST New York Cut:

USDJPY 117.00 (USD 2.7bln) 118.00 (USD 1.7bln) 119.00 (USD 1.3bln) 120.00 (USD 3.68bln)








**Notice: This is a Futures Yen Chart and is reversed to the Spot FX USDJPY however the action is an equivalent mirror image.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-16-TOS_CHARTS.png Size: 69 KB
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #53,638
  • Edited 10:29pm Dec 15, 2014 10:15pm | Edited 10:29pm
Getting interesting now... First scale in for me is around the 116.6 area that would make a 500pip retrace from previous highs at 121.6-8 and match up with previous large retrace of 500 pips from 110 to 105. We can still most definitely go lower of course, but i see that as a logical bounce area or at least pivot point. I will target another scale in around 115.3 fib level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,639
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:24pm Dec 15, 2014 10:24pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
Option expiries 10AM EST New York Cut: USDJPY 117.00 (USD 2.7bln) 118.00 (USD 1.7bln) 119.00 (USD 1.3bln) 120.00 (USD 3.68bln) **Notice: This is a Futures Yen Chart and is reversed to the Spot FX USDJPY however the action is an equivalent mirror image. {image}
i SEE you are pilot.
  • #53,640
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:24pm Dec 15, 2014 10:24pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
Option expiries 10AM EST New York Cut: USDJPY 117.00 (USD 2.7bln) 118.00 (USD 1.7bln) 119.00 (USD 1.3bln) 120.00 (USD 3.68bln) **Notice: This is a Futures Yen Chart and is reversed to the Spot FX USDJPY however the action is an equivalent mirror image. {image}
Thanks for the chart. For it to cross this humongous cloud the selling has to be pretty sustained effort. Not that it is not possible but with the fomc coming up this wed......, my view is the tenkan will wrap around the kijun at some point with the kijun flat on the left at the day separator as a strong resistance level, which points to today or about now. Btw I watch ichi n fibs for levels.
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