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  • Post #78,041
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  • Dec 13, 2014 1:01pm Dec 13, 2014 1:01pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
AUDUSD Analysis:

Month
Price hit notable high, the one way off to the left on the chart. This is a significant price area. So, what comes next?
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Week
Not much to see here but perhaps one item. This last extensive run down at this point seems ripe for a reversal just by the measure of it. And the last three months of volume, while diminished from the volume of September, have been increasing as price has gone lower. Keep in mind that the volume for December is already more than the volumes of October and November, and it is only for the this first part of December. That means there is a whole lot of activity at these lowest prices.
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H4
The two interesting items here are that now we can see that the Robber Banks clearly loaded up for this last run down. So, they knew what they were going to do. And so far, there is not the volume one would expect if they were now equally loading up for a reversal. Their timing for that might be a ways off yet. The other thing of interest is that they are now ranging the price. This is what the Robber Banks do when they have huge short positions needing to be reversed. They range the price - lots of up/down price action - to deceive and confuse others while they close shorts and open longs. What shows of this might just be part of what the Robber Banks will continue on thru December and into the New Year, giving themselves plenty of time to deceive and thieve as they switch their positions from shorts to longs.
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However, this is just a viewpoint. The sad fact is that no analysis can divine how the Robber Banks will move price next, nor when trends will reverse. What we Sonicers can do is to stalk for our setups, and trade them with proper money management,....whether they agree or disagree with our analysis of the pair.

-tah
 
 
  • Post #78,042
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  • Dec 14, 2014 6:20pm Dec 14, 2014 6:20pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
Quoting traderathome
Disliked
EURJPY Short Trade Open: Scout entry in after hours based on the fact that the MMs are pushing up the prices in after hours on all the JPY pairs ahead of a JPY high impact release over the weekend. And based on the push up of this pair bringing the price back up into the zone where the MMs have previously accumulated shorts. {image}
Ignored
EURJPY Short Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 52.9 pips average, 264.5 pips total.
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  • Post #78,043
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  • Dec 14, 2014 6:21pm Dec 14, 2014 6:21pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
Quoting traderathome
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NZDJPY Short Trade Open: This is a Friday after hours re-entry of a Classic short setup. Of all the JPY pairs, this looks like it has the best pattern of highs on the Month chart for shorting. And it shows the weakest PA on the M15 chart. There is a JPY high impact release over the weekend. So this trade is a gamble that the MMs are pushing up all of the JPY pair prices now in Friday after hours trading in order to accumulate shorts ahead of the new week open. {image}
Ignored
NZDJPY Short Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 29.9 pips average, 149.5 pips total.
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  • Post #78,044
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  • Dec 14, 2014 6:29pm Dec 14, 2014 6:29pm
  •  qFish
  • Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 924 Posts
UJ Close, TP hit:
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
 
 
  • Post #78,045
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  • Dec 14, 2014 6:33pm Dec 14, 2014 6:33pm
  •  qFish
  • Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 924 Posts
Quoting traderathome
Disliked
{quote} NZDJPY Short Trade Closed: Closed for gain of 29.9 pips average, 149.5 pips total. {image}
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Kudos!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
 
 
  • Post #78,046
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  • Dec 14, 2014 8:26pm Dec 14, 2014 8:26pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
AUDJPY Long Trade Open/Closed:

Closed for gain of 48.3 pips average, 241.5 pips total.

This Scout trade was based on the fact of a quick take down of the price below the half number, which is an area of previous accumulation of longs.
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  • Post #78,047
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  • Dec 14, 2014 9:04pm Dec 14, 2014 9:04pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
EURAUD Short Trade Open:

M5 pre-LS Classic setup. No hard TP/SL at this time.
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  • Post #78,048
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  • Dec 15, 2014 1:10am Dec 15, 2014 1:10am
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
Quoting traderathome
Disliked
EURAUD Short Trade Open: M5 pre-LS Classic setup. No hard TP/SL at this time. {image}
Ignored
EURAUD Short Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 67.4 pips average, 674 pips total. I added to this trade when the price was pushed back up into the area where it seemed the MMs were accumulating shorts.
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  • Post #78,049
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  • Dec 15, 2014 2:28am Dec 15, 2014 2:28am
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
AUDUSD Long Trade Open/Close:

Closed for gain of 15.7 pips average, 472 pips total.

This is a pre-LS Scout only trade based on price being taken back down into the area it seems the MMs have used for accumulating longs.
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  • Post #78,050
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  • Dec 15, 2014 4:45am Dec 15, 2014 4:45am
  •  MrFxGuy
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Long Audusd London Classic Sonic R setup enter on retrace.
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  • Post #78,051
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  • Dec 15, 2014 5:48am Dec 15, 2014 5:48am
  •  J.welch
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
this one is wild..
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  • Post #78,052
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  • Dec 15, 2014 6:40am Dec 15, 2014 6:40am
  •  Ivanyo
  • | Joined Apr 2014 | Status: Member | 692 Posts
Has anyone from Australia had success with this method? I'm finding it quite hard to due to market being more active when it is real late at night here.
 
 
  • Post #78,053
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  • Dec 15, 2014 11:10am Dec 15, 2014 11:10am
  •  denmas
  • Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Member | 298 Posts
81 pips closed AU
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  • Post #78,054
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  • Dec 15, 2014 12:47pm Dec 15, 2014 12:47pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
NZDUSD Comment

Sonicers,

Double bottomed today on M15 and many times take below half number that has been an area of accumulation before. And in after hours now, the MMs are working the price below the half number. Not really aggressive selling, but a light volume manipulation downwards instead, which suggests they are doing two things: getting the price lower for ongoing accumulation of longs and exhausting all liquidity for getting long orders filled as they work the price lower. There is a NZD high impact release tomorrow, so the MMs might have plans to take the price higher and are loading up with longs ahead of that release.
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  • Post #78,055
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  • Edited at 1:46pm Dec 15, 2014 12:51pm | Edited at 1:46pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
Quoting traderathome
Disliked
NZDUSD Comment Sonicers, Double bottomed today on M15 and many times take below half number that has been an area of accumulation before. And in after hours now, the MMs are working the price below the half number. Not really aggressive selling, but a light volume manipulation downwards instead, which suggests they are doing two things: getting the price lower for ongoing accumulation of longs and exhausting all liquidity for getting long orders filled as they work the price lower. There is a NZD high impact release tomorrow, so the MMs might have plans to take the price higher and are loading up with longs ahead of that release. {image}
Ignored
AUDUSD Comment

Sonicers,

As with NZDUSD posted above, the MMs double bottomed this today and are working it back down in after hours. The AUD high impact release comes even sooner than the one for NZDUSD. You can see that the price-volume pattern on this one today is strongly suggestive of accumulation of longs by the MMs.
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In this picture, PVSRA is indicating first the closing of shorts on the first drive below the half number today, and then the opening of longs on the second drive below the half number today. Although, in reality there was most likely a mix of both operations going on during each event below the half number. In any case, it is clear that the MMs coveted lower prices today to do most of their trading. That is bullish.
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  • Post #78,056
  • Quote
  • Dec 15, 2014 12:59pm Dec 15, 2014 12:59pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
Quoting traderathome
Disliked
NZDUSD Comment Sonicers, Double bottomed today on M15 and many times take below half number that has been an area of accumulation before. And in after hours now, the MMs are working the price below the half number. Not really aggressive selling, but a light volume manipulation downwards instead, which suggests they are doing two things: getting the price lower for ongoing accumulation of longs and exhausting all liquidity for getting long orders filled as they work the price lower. There is a NZD high impact release tomorrow, so the MMs might have plans to take the price higher and are loading up with longs ahead of that release. {image}
Ignored
Quoting traderathome
Disliked
{quote} AUDUSD Comment Sonicers, As with NZDUSD posted above, the MMs double bottomed this today and are working it back down in after hours. The AUD high impact release comes even sooner than the one for NZDUSD. You can see that the price-volume pattern on this one today is strongly suggestive of accumulation of longs by the MMs. {image}
Ignored
AUDJPY Comment

And the same goes for this one, too! Look at the increase in volume as the US MMs whacked the price back below the whole number today!

BTW, all the JPY pairs look like the MMs have whacked them below key SR for accumulation of long orders.
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  • Post #78,057
  • Quote
  • Dec 15, 2014 1:14pm Dec 15, 2014 1:14pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
GBPUSD: Uniquely Bullish

Sonicers,

There are multiple GBP high impact releases coming within 24 hours. Look at this H4 chart. It is clear that the MMs have repeatedly whacked the price below the half number - and even further on a number of those occasions to below the lower whole number - on notable volume while keeping the price ranging. We know that when the MMs range price it can be a sign they are doing so to facilitate the closing of a finished position (in this case, shorts) and the opening of a new position (in this case, longs). These multiple GBP high impact releases might be what they plan as a "trigger" to start a bull swing. We simply cannot know how these Robber Banks will manipulate price, but this is worth keeping an eye on.
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  • Post #78,058
  • Quote
  • Dec 15, 2014 1:22pm Dec 15, 2014 1:22pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
EURUSD: Also Shows Signs of the bull

Sonicers,

There are multiple EUR high impact releases coming on this one, too. The H4 chart shows TL breaks and today the MMs have pulled the price back below the half number followed by heavy trading, presumably for the accumulation of long orders. This one is also worth keeping an eye on. I would not put it past these Robber Banks to whack it below the lower whole number - "liquidity creation" (deceiving & thieving) - before launching a bull swing.
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  • Post #78,059
  • Quote
  • Edited Dec 16, 2014 1:18am Dec 15, 2014 4:13pm | Edited Dec 16, 2014 1:18am
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
Quoting Gupito1508
Disliked
Exercise for 3 accident that might happened Yes, I provoke again. Many of us always taught about how to position corectly through classic and scout. Many other system taught their way to open position too. But no one teach how to accepting the loss. I give you one blow, Trading is a Looser game. Yes it is, no matter how big your capital, how experienced you with the market, you still on a looser side. Your percentage is 40/50. Compared into the Robber bank, market maker, you're deep down below "under capitalized". The Image of this word can be ilustrated...
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Quoting Gupito1508
Disliked
{quote} Example of how to accepting losses...? The order executed via limit order on friday (NFP release). Yet the execution is poorly timed... But, I know I have the altitude needed to landed safely (equity to hold the position - and have information about certain Price Manipulation on saturday by robber bank). On monday, I hold a little, let the loss reduced, and close quickly at BEP (minus commision). By this way, I landed the plane safely. Regards, -GP- {image}
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Quoting traderathome
Disliked
{quote} {quote} How to Face All Your Trades: Execution is the Key! Sonicers and Gupito1508, If I understand Gupito1508 correctly, the word "Execution" refers to capitalization, discipline and decision. In other words, do you have enough money in your account and do you size your trades properly to be able to handle the various "accidents" that can befall your trade if the trade is valid, and do you have the discipline to wait for proper setups, and do you have what it takes to accept when the trade is no longer valid and get out of it, which due...
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Quoting Gupito1508
Disliked
{quote} Correct prof... but let me add some, the word "E-X-E-C-U-T-I-O-N" also mean to jump into the market without hesitate, without procrastinate. As I mention before, it's a losser game. No matter how great the setup it is, before we jump, we never know the result and how to handle the accident. If the market prove your position wrong, exit immediately. Do not hold too long, because from the very beggining, it always a losser. Those who loss best, will achieve and survived through this dog eat dog market... Until market proved our position not...
Ignored
Trade Execution

Sonicers,

Gupito1508 has contributed greatly to this thread. What follows is really his work. I have only attempted to simplify and summarize. And I beseech everyone reading this to also read each of the related posts linked to this post. There is information throughout to stimulate your thinking and retention. We all owe a debt of gratitude to Gupito1508 for his presence on this thread and his generous heart. He has knowledge that could help every trader.

The following is a summary of this topic as discussed in the referenced previous posts. Proper "Trade Execution" is perhaps the most critical aspect of all in trading. So, what does it mean and how is it done properly for least risk of our trading capital?


What is "Trade Execution"?

Simply put, Trade Execution is the "why" and "when" you enter a trade, and the manner in which you respond to what happens next, which depends on your capitalization, trade size and discipline. Every trade, regardless of preceding analysis and point of entry, must be considered a losing trade. And with this mindset, we must have a plan for "why" and "when" we will exit the trade because it has thus proven it is a losing trade by this plan criteria, so far as we are concerned, no matter what price does next.

Why and when do we enter a trade? The "why" we enter a trade is because price action has created our trade setup, our Classic long or short setup at the right time during the current market session. The "when" we enter a trade is promptly! The setup exists and there is no reason to procrastinate. We assume the trade will be a loser. We have our exit plan. We make a proper sized entry to the trade based on our capitalization, and with discipline we properly execute the trade per our exit plan.

Gupito1508 has used the analogy of a plane taking off to describe the trade, a trade which we must presume will crash until is proves otherwise. So, immediately following entry (takeoff), and with little profit (little altitude), an accident can happen and the trade (plane) crashes. There is no time to look for a safe landing area. The plane is going down. Period. This is why we have an exit plan. It is in effect. We follow it. The trade has crashed and we are out with small damage, all in accordance with our exit plan.

On the other hand, the plane might gain more altitude (go into more profit) before the accident happens. Now the plane is suddenly diving, but we can see from this altitude the surrounding countryside and pick a place to try and land safely. This means we have the benefit of more price action to help us decide if to not immediately close the trade (bail out), but instead to ride the stricken trade (plane) towards a favored clearing and land it. So, we might hold onto the trade that has put us at a loss, anticipating that the price will turn to briefly favor the trade and permit an exit where the loss will be somewhat less than if immediately the trade were to be closed.

Finally, the plane might be well on to achieve the flight plan altitude (TP area) and so if at this stage the accident happens, we have more time and knowledge of the countryside to plan our crash landing. This simply means that we might not immediately seek to land but instead seek to glide for awhile, anticipating an opportunity to close the trade at a better level, to land the stricken plane in a better area. To hold the trade in anticipation of a bit more profit than if it were to be closed immediately.

Trade Execution means having a proper "why" and "when" to begin the trade, and having a "crash landing" plan at hand in case the trade quickly goes sour, and upgrading that plan if the trade matures instead. Trade Execution means keeping the mindset that the trade is a loser, that we have filed our "Crash Landing Plan" and we keep it updated, right on until the plane is landed,.....safely for nice profit, or otherwise. And Trade Execution means trading a wise size relative to our capitalization - not too large, too soon - so with that discipline our execution plan can incorporate the options to fold, hold, or add.


Aids to Proper Trade Execution

We Sonicers are fortunate to have an elegantly simple and effective method of trading, the Sonic R. System Classic trade setup. And we are also fortunate to have an elegantly simple and effective method of deriving indications as to the bull/bear status of the MMs, PVSRA. What we all tend to lack at times is proper management of a trade in the sense that we do not have a crash landing plan filed for our flight. Instead, we tend to think the plane is predestined to successful flight, and that if an accident happens,well......we will deal with that later, if and when it happens! And we sometimes enter too large, too soon! This is not a good mindset! We must seek the best trading opportunities that present themselves, but we must also do our best to protect our trading capital, and that means proper Trade Execution.

Thank you, Gupito1508.

Sincerely,
-tah

P.S: It is my intention that Gupito1508 read and approve or change this so that we can get one post like this linked in Post #1.

Quoting Gupito1508
Disliked
{quote} Yes prof... You describe my intention in easier word... Trully, I saw so many trader, hope their position is correct. They forget that from the beginning, it's losser. They do not have exit plan, do not anticipate the "what if?" factor. Sonic R system will be completed, if, trader also being taught how to deal with the accident too. The other system only taught about the positive result of the system, but no one taught us "how to deal with a losser position?" Yes, I approve it to be linked in post#1. It will be cool to see the other trader that struggle will develop to be better. Trading is a nasty bussiness. It's a wild west, with so many trap inside. Regards, -GP-
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  • Post #78,060
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  • Edited at 5:04pm Dec 15, 2014 4:46pm | Edited at 5:04pm
  •  traderathome
  • Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 22,542 Posts
USDCAD Comment

Sonicers,

The US MMs have been continuously active on this pair in after hours, maintaining trading levels similar to the first half of the LS! This is extremely significant! And also, because they have pushed the price above the half number to do this remarkable after hours volume of trading, there can be no doubt what the MMs are up to here, imho. This is a very clear PVSRA indication that the Robber Banks are accumulating short orders. and because they are doing this now, in after hours today, it could mean a bear swing starts tomorrow.
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Edit: About 15 minutes later, .......get a load of this current M15 chart...... hiking price and shorting this pair all the way to the end of the US session!
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