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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,501
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:28pm Dec 14, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting Vermillion
The "xxx/JPY" pairs are unknown for intraday trend. Ask the veteran users of Forex Factory; many of them have wide ranges and are staying back to see how the market reacts on Sunday. This is because practically everyone expected Abe Shinzo to win, with a record low turnout for voters. Everything fell exactly into place as expected. Now, before any one of you newcomers decide to go crazy for longing the USD/JPY as soon as the market starts, remember these key points: 1) The major financial institutions that run the forex volatility are well aware...
Plenty of people have turned there attention short as well remember. There might be a bearish sentiment about the markets at the moment with some analysts claiming it could go 113 and below. This week will be interesting though
  • #53,502
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:29pm Dec 14, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Oil prices have domino effects - not as simple as it sounds Just trying to stay with the market and avoiding personal bias
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=517611

Just an other reason to go SHORT on Oil, isn't it?
  • #53,503
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:30pm Dec 14, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Oil prices have domino effects - not as simple as it sounds Just trying to stay with the market and avoiding personal bias
Of course not, never said it was. But Oil has definitely thrown a spanner in the works.

Like I said If this thing closes below 117.25 then I will look at opportunities to go short. It is not personal bias but more that the overall longer trend has still yet to be broken.
  • #53,504
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:55pm Dec 14, 2014 1:55pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Already short from 104.xx China's GDP Growth to Slow to 7.1 Percent Next Year, PBOC Economist Says < --- UJ spike down to 118.448
Nice.
  • #53,505
  • Edited 2:24pm Dec 14, 2014 2:09pm | Edited 2:24pm
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coalition cruised to a big election win on Sunday, ensuring he will stick to reflationary economic policies and a muscular security stance....."

...market reaction is muted.....and will remain so for a while.....go fishing. Recency bias dominates all round as usual.

Edit : If it doesn't break out of this, nothing is happening yet either way...

http://i.imgur.com/2rF9cGX.png
  • #53,506
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:10pm Dec 14, 2014 2:10pm
We have a significant dip in prices within the first 10 minutes...unfortunately, most of my shorts are a bit lacking in profit, seeing as how my broker's spread just jumped to 8 pips in the GBP/JPY.

At least its leverage is high and its data & withdrawals are trustworthy. I guess they have to squeeze a few bucks somewhere.

But all in all this is VERY good news for USD/JPY longs in the med-term. Time to stock on for 2015 first quarter, when the yen jumps 125+. I think most banks are looking around the 145 mark and possibly beyond for 2015.
  • #53,507
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:35pm Dec 14, 2014 2:35pm
damn, stop run maybe? pretty hard drop within first half hr of opening....

still in longs.. need to see 120 and up
  • #53,508
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:44pm Dec 14, 2014 2:44pm
whatever happens all stops ar green now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.PNG Size: 62 KB
just do it
  • #53,509
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:49pm Dec 14, 2014 2:49pm
am still bullish on uj
  • #53,510
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:50pm Dec 14, 2014 2:50pm
Mr Abe's won the Japan's elections will be seen as positive for this pair, the Prime Minister as he retains further 4 more years, will enable him to complete his economic reform and that should continue to weigh on the Yen.
  • #53,511
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:55pm Dec 14, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Liam0530
damn, stop run maybe? pretty hard drop within first half hr of opening.... still in longs.. need to see 120 and up
I have two words for you, Liam: Scottish Referendum. This Japanese election reminds me of just that: predictable results, and opposite movement just following the results of the votes. I think the market makers already cashed in and are trying to set new lows before creating new yearly highs.

I expect some support on 117.50, but I personally think that the optimal place to reload would be 117. Of course, I could very well be wrong; all I can guess (correction: have guessed) is that we'll go down to at least 117.70/30.
  • #53,512
  • Dec 14, 2014 3:08pm Dec 14, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting peeterwoolf
Mr Abe's won the Japan's elections will be seen as positive for this pair, the Prime Minister as he retains further 4 more years, will enable him to complete his economic reform and that should continue to weigh on the Yen.
I agree, UJ will probably continue the upside.
  • #53,513
  • Dec 14, 2014 3:15pm Dec 14, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting csc2009
{quote} I agree, UJ will probably continue the upside.
Probably? No, it's guaranteed. Japan's parliament already acknowledged that on T.V.; go look up Abe Shinzo's pre-election interviews and T.V. media appearances.

The problem for retail traders here is that most people think it'll go up automatically.

I think that some people in this forum (i.e. those screaming "buy now! buy now!") are forgetting that the market makers are watching this as well, and they also knew Abe Shinzo was going to win. They'll also look forward to buying the USD/JPY, but they'll need sellers who'll sell the pair to them. After all, they only buy in bulk. They'll want to squeeze as much short term intraday bulls as they can before buying it right back up.

The thing is, it doesn't matter if our fundamentals and technicals are right during moments of volatility like these. If only for a moment, they can just shove their vast quantities of funds from their war chest and knock us out of the market. It's big business strategy 101: Use your bigger size and weight as an advantage over smaller competitors. If you think I'm lying, look up all the cases where big banks like Barclays, HSBC, Bank of America, CitiBank, and dozens more are indicted yearly for manipulating the forex market.

Edit: Oh, hello, 117.00. We've just touched slightly below 118.00.
  • #53,514
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:07pm Dec 14, 2014 4:07pm
l o n g 117.8x - stops in green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,515
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:10pm Dec 14, 2014 4:10pm
Market is super thin as you all can tell. Rough conditions up ahead.
  • #53,516
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:17pm Dec 14, 2014 4:17pm
http://www.livetradingnews.com/usdjp...mics-87360.htm

Something to think about at least in the short term
  • #53,517
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:25pm Dec 14, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting iNSIELD
http://www.livetradingnews.com/usdjp...mics-87360.htm Something to think about at least in the short term
...reason that I was looking for.
  • #53,518
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:45pm Dec 14, 2014 4:45pm
117.8x is still holding
  • #53,519
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:47pm Dec 14, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting Ken A
117.8x is still holding
Possibly a retest? The market is out of whack right now.

We're seem to be in for a correction, but bulls seem to be fighting to keep this area alive.
  • #53,520
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:47pm Dec 14, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Possibly a retest? The market is out of whack right now.
Its not out of wack...its called a thin market...
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