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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,461
  • Dec 14, 2014 10:45am Dec 14, 2014 10:45am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Oh you got me ! i really was not aware of last year's election . but the really really current affairs, i do breeze through. Not much into news or fundamentals if you have noticed so far or maybe you didn't. I put charts up and not links to news sites. maybe i should brush up on my fundamental readup as well . I am close to 50 years old and it's nice to see young people stalking my posts for finding some errors especially after waking up with my cuppa from an afternoon snooze.

Its nothing about getting anyone....how can a trader say he doesn't consider fundamentals, not even consider?...that has to be one of the silliest and moronic things I have ever heard...yes 50 years old and lacking in many areas...I think one most revisit economics 101. Cheers buddy.
  • #53,462
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:18am Dec 14, 2014 11:18am
Quoting Rizmeister
....how can a trader say he doesn't consider fundamentals, not even consider?....
Really, why do you need fundamentals?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #53,463
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:23am Dec 14, 2014 11:23am
Would it not be a fair statement that : every singe moves are driven first of all by fundamental reasons, so much that it make us some times understand nearly nothing because it is just to huge to understand the whole game at the perfection.... so after some say "fundamentals do not matter"...
  • #53,464
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:24am Dec 14, 2014 11:24am
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Its nothing about getting anyone....how can a trader say he doesn't consider fundamentals, not even consider?...that has to be one of the silliest and moronic things I have ever heard...yes 50 years old and lacking in many areas...I think one most revisit economics 101. Cheers buddy.
Silliest and moronic may be in your view. I see it differently. I only believe in technical trading with a 2% of news reading thrown in. I have my SL in place for any news driven volatility and i have been quite successful so far. So i don't want to change that but thanks for the remark. Regarding the things i lack ... there is quite a lot to list... let's not even go there.
STING
  • #53,465
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:26am Dec 14, 2014 11:26am
Technical and fundamentals are the two side of the same coin... Technical is a view of the fundamental assessment of a fundamental picture.
  • #53,466
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:29am Dec 14, 2014 11:29am
I try to incorporate everything in my trading techniques.
  • #53,467
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:30am Dec 14, 2014 11:30am
Quote
I try to incorporate everything in my trading techniques.

So inside is the fundamental picture
  • #53,468
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:37am Dec 14, 2014 11:37am
USDJPY...continuation bull..to test 120.20..the strength and length of the daily and /or bi-daily candlestick(s) at daily close will determine whether it will hold and overcome 121.9 eventually or it will retrace again downwards.

EURUSD...should retrace downwards tomorrow searching first for 1.2380 and 1.2360,if it closes below 1.2360 on daily candlestick then expect some fieworks..USDCHF..should retrace upwards for 0.9700

KEY THEME...Brace this December for volatility all through unlike in the past when traders could walk away from screens due to the holidays.

KEY THEME...Wednesdays FOMC statement and economic outlook might prove to be the TRUE bull in the china shop(excuse the pun) hehe

Best JPY pairs to play in my IMHO for this particular point...USDJPY,GBPJPY & SGDJPY
Carpe Diem
  • #53,469
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:38am Dec 14, 2014 11:38am
Even in the case of a pullback, imagine a big one, it is a fundamental reason behind it, it is just maybe not a global-macro fundamental reason...
  • #53,470
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:40am Dec 14, 2014 11:40am
The FOMC should be the driver this week of an USD which goes higher, but I am a bit worry about the CPI, it could also influence USD to the down side...

Any thoughts....?
  • #53,471
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:42am Dec 14, 2014 11:42am
Quoting Rizmeister
I try to incorporate everything in my trading techniques.
That would be difficult for me at times because sometimes my technical analysis gives me a direction but fundamentals tells opposite. for this instance. I am more biased short in my technical view but election result can boost the price up, so i have to stand aside until the fundamental situation has passed else i have to make my technicals go along with the upcoming fundamental news which could turn in any direction, so i stick to my technical view which gives me precise targets and my SL is in place in case of any problems. Again my 2 cents.
STING
  • #53,472
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:53am Dec 14, 2014 11:53am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} That would be difficult for me at times because sometimes my technical analysis gives me a direction but fundamentals tells opposite. for this instance. I am more biased short in my technical view but election result can boost the price up, so i have to stand aside until the fundamental situation has passed else i have to make my technicals go along with the upcoming fundamental news which could turn in any direction, so i stick to my technical view which gives me precise targets and my SL is in place in case of any problems. Again my 2...

Technical is great because it offers an orientation and a method to know how to put yourself in market, but the fundamentals and the "big picture" that is driving this market the way it is is essential to look at.
  • #53,473
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:55am Dec 14, 2014 11:55am
Quoting stringfx
Just a chart for monday. THis is how i see it. Wave 1 ended at 117.46 wave 2 'a' and 'b' done. waiting for completion of c wave which i feel will end at Fe 100 (120.15) .. may overshoot to weekly pivot line at 120.33. If it decides to go further than that, at no point it should break the high of 121.83. if that's the case, then i am totally wrong in my count. Good luck and trade safe. On a retracement point of view, Fe 100 lies exactly on 61.8 retracement. Here is a chart. {image}
Curious,

Your chart shows a, b, c correction to 120.15 area, but your chart shows a sell position at current price?
Thanks for your response in advance
  • #53,474
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:59am Dec 14, 2014 11:59am
Quoting bccorp
{quote} Technical is great because it offers an orientation and a method to know how to put yourself in market, but the fundamentals and the "big picture" that is driving this market the way it is is essential to look at.

Keeping in mind also that there are overtime the fundamental group of the buyers and the one of the sellers.

For instance, in the case of USD/JPY, the "buyer" group are looking at the continuing of the US economic and FED forces to apply and the ABE politic to be pursuing.

The "seller" group is looking at a possible pullback of the USD because of an over stretched situation and because of the end of the year, a possible disapointment of Yellen / FED in the statement, and an eventual disappointment of the ABE agenda so the expectation of less measure (which could by the way put Japan in the hole)

So which one has the hand on the game?
  • #53,475
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:04pm Dec 14, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote}how can a trader say he doesn't consider fundamentals, not even consider?.
....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,476
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:06pm Dec 14, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} ....

I understand the choice to do like that, but what is the sound reason?
  • #53,477
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:07pm Dec 14, 2014 12:07pm
gap only 20-30 pips http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart...Set=JPY_majors
  • #53,478
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:08pm Dec 14, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting melvyn
{quote} Curious, Your chart shows a, b, c correction to 120.15 area, but your chart shows a sell position at current price? Thanks for your response in advance

I am flat in my live account. Standing aside until i see the opening price . The account you see is a $200,000 demo account with Alpari and sometimes i use GCI Mt4 demo as well where i am doing a test of EA with relative currency strength.

I am biased short so i took that position when the market was volatile. I will be taking another short at the technical levels mentioned in the chart that you saw. I can afford to lose money in demo, so i go a bit crazy .

I have this itchy fingers which makes me hit the buttons too often, so i put the demo in front of me to satisfy my mind and fingers.
STING
  • #53,479
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:11pm Dec 14, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting bccorp
{quote} I understand the choice to do like that, but what is the sound reason?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post7942358

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post7942541

Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,480
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:12pm Dec 14, 2014 12:12pm
Gapping up currently. 119+

Edit: We will see once opens. Definitely going to get interesting.
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