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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,441
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:48pm Dec 13, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting stringfx
Not sure I understand your "end of trend" question? As a day trader I don't really trade (or even see) "trends". I see ranges occurring at different levels and I trade them both ways. That said, I do of course keep the overall "position trader's" trend in mind. As mentioned above, when I'm all growed up I'll trade positions. All sharks leave a wake when they swim. Like drafting in NASCAR, tuck yourself tight enough in behind and let them tow you along. Thanks and nicely put
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,442
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:48pm Dec 13, 2014 10:48pm
What I am wondering about is the TRUE reason why Abe called a early election. Is it to get a mandate to for new changes and drop a shocker like Karudo did a few weeks back or am I just paranoiac??
  • #53,443
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:55pm Dec 13, 2014 10:55pm
I've found seeking "truth" in politics will leave you in an endless and frustrating cycle of nothingness. Thank God for charts! ... lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,444
  • Dec 13, 2014 11:07pm Dec 13, 2014 11:07pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Dear Mk5, If you check my earlier posts, i had mentioned that wave 5 of major wave 1 ended exactly at 61.8 expansion and was due for a retrace. Now this retrace is the 2nd wave up. Elliot says 2nd waves can go until the top of 1st wave (rare) but usually it retraces to 50% to 61.8%. It does this retracement in a 3 internal wave cycle which is the a-b-c. I believe the 'a' and 'b' are over and the 'c' wave which is the last one is yet to be made. Once the C wave completed which is normally 100% of wave a, then we start the major wave 3 down....

thank you string ! appreciate that quick response ! =) cheers !!
  • #53,445
  • Dec 13, 2014 11:24pm Dec 13, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting LouiseZA
What I am wondering about is the TRUE reason why Abe called a early election. Is it to get a mandate to for new changes and drop a shocker like Karudo did a few weeks back or am I just paranoiac??
The official reason given by Abe has the economy in mind(3rd arrow) :

"At a nationally televised news conference, the prime minister delivered his decision on the tax increase. “To ensure the success of Abenomics, I’ve concluded that it shouldn’t be carried out next October and instead should be postponed by 18 months,” he said.
“The postponement is a grave decision, and I believe going to the people with this decision is not only natural but the right way for a democracy,” he said."

...but,

the political pov :

"Takao Toshikawa, author and editor-in-chief of Tokyo's Insideline, a respected political publication, who spoke at the same conference as Cucek, suggested it is a way to promote leadership longevity."

"By choosing to hold an election when polls overwhelming favour his party and are predicting a landslide victory, Abe should easily be able to ride his success and retain the LDP presidency in next September's leadership vote, which is held every three years."
  • #53,446
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:43am Dec 14, 2014 4:43am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Because the stock (Dow and Nikkei) was falling.
and those fell because of Oil.
  • #53,447
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:56am Dec 14, 2014 4:56am
last year when Abe called elections and won I went and opened a long position. I lost a lot of money because markets bought the rumor and sold the fact. Looks like Abe will win again this time. This time I am watching on the sidelines.
  • #53,448
  • Dec 14, 2014 5:23am Dec 14, 2014 5:23am
Quoting kweiss10
last year when Abe called elections and won I went and opened a long position. I lost a lot of money because markets bought the rumor and sold the fact. Looks like Abe will win again this time. This time I am watching on the sidelines.
was there an election last year as well? are the elections a yearly thing in Japan? I thought it happens once in 4 years.
STING
  • #53,449
  • Dec 14, 2014 5:24am Dec 14, 2014 5:24am
Quoting mk5
{quote} thank you string ! appreciate that quick response ! =) cheers !!
STING
  • #53,450
  • Dec 14, 2014 5:43am Dec 14, 2014 5:43am
Political situation in Japan is quite complex and it can be very interesting if Japanese will choose Abe again, they are in quite tough situation and even very improbable scenarios can materialize. Nevertheless, Yen will not going to strengthen in the nearest future too much.
  • #53,451
  • Dec 14, 2014 6:04am Dec 14, 2014 6:04am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} was there an election last year as well? are the elections a yearly thing in Japan? I thought it happens once in 4 years.
Hmm interesting you comment on what I have to say yet not up to date on current affairs...especially when it impacts the pair you're trading.
  • #53,452
  • Dec 14, 2014 6:27am Dec 14, 2014 6:27am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} was there an election last year as well? are the elections a yearly thing in Japan? I thought it happens once in 4 years.
it was the upperhouse election if I recall. Nevertheless the main topic was Abe's economical policies.
  • #53,453
  • Dec 14, 2014 6:29am Dec 14, 2014 6:29am
My own "system" is to every time keep in mind the "big" picture... which in the case of USD/JPY is growth and tightening in US push the USD up and the politic agenda of ABE with the hep of the BOJ is to stimulate the economy via easing. As long as this frame stay in place, USD/JPY will continue to climb, it can only have interferences by ther minor ideas/ concepts which drag it down such : global perceptions of a USD pullback / retracement, hesitations of BOJ to keep going, the agenda of ABE dow not work, etc...

By every time:

wait for a retracement to enter into such a trend

or

focuse to much on small intermediaries details

I very often miss the big move I was looking for.

So now I am thinking, and that my homework of the weekend, "what the hell!", as long as the big idea (concept) is in place and as long as I see the market being supported by some price level on the down side I keep buying or I stay with my position, unless I see coming a problem regarding this concept.


Please tell me what you think about it and try to oppose me as much as you can so I can see if my ideas can be debunked...

Thanks!
  • #53,454
  • Dec 14, 2014 7:04am Dec 14, 2014 7:04am
Lets face it, a combination of Oil, and US Budget fears rattled the market and forex market... It happened the last time there was a pending government shut down as well.

The fundamentals of USD vs JPY are very different as the US numbers are very strong and Japan just entered a recession. Maybe we see some more sell off this coming week from weaker hands or triggered stops, I can't imagine much at this point. But the long term vision is clear, and the divergence should ensure the pair moves up for a long while. I view this entire correction as buying opportunity.

Large spec hasn't changed much, retail had a lot of broken stops this week, and I suspect minor spec did too, but the squeeze should be close to over, and there's not a good reason to bet against the pair in the long run. I should also add survey of larger spec show long term holding still on this pair, and I'd guess their loading up right now just like the last minor corrections this pair.
  • #53,455
  • Dec 14, 2014 7:06am Dec 14, 2014 7:06am
Abe Set for Victory in Japan Election With Commanding Majority

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iMPP1T1xomMA.jpg
  • #53,456
  • Dec 14, 2014 7:20am Dec 14, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Ken A
Abe Set for Victory in Japan Election With Commanding Majority {image}
  • #53,457
  • Dec 14, 2014 8:09am Dec 14, 2014 8:09am
Quoting Ken A
Abe Set for Victory in Japan Election With Commanding Majority {image}
So how this affects the uj pair? Up or down?
  • #53,458
  • Dec 14, 2014 8:11am Dec 14, 2014 8:11am
"Announcements of QQE2 by the BoJ and reallocation by the GPIF on Oct 31 strongly confirmed the acceleration and sustainability of USD/JPY’s uptrend. The expected victory of the Prime Minister Abe-led coalition in the Lower House election on Dec 14 will further reinforce the rise of USD/JPY and Nikkei under Abe-nomics."

"The US economy is a main driver of USD/JPY higher and is expected to keep growing at +3%. We see USD/JPY reaching 125 by end-2014 and 130 by end-2015. While the recent rapid rally of USD/JPY will have to correct at some point, it will be firmly supported by Japanese investors buying-on-dips and importers who have not secured sufficient amounts of USD yet."
  • #53,459
  • Dec 14, 2014 8:19am Dec 14, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Hmm interesting you comment on what I have to say yet not up to date on current affairs...especially when it impacts the pair you're trading.
Oh you got me !

i really was not aware of last year's election . but the really really current affairs, i do breeze through. Not much into news or fundamentals if you have noticed so far or maybe you didn't. I put charts up and not links to news sites. maybe i should brush up on my fundamental readup as well .

I am close to 50 years old and it's nice to see young people stalking my posts for finding some errors especially after waking up with my cuppa from an afternoon snooze.
STING
  • #53,460
  • Dec 14, 2014 8:41am Dec 14, 2014 8:41am
Quoting skyway
{quote} The official reason given by Abe has the economy in mind(3rd arrow) "Takao Toshikawa, author and editor-in-chief of Tokyo's Insideline, a respected political publication, who spoke at the same conference as Cucek, suggested it is a way to promote leadership longevity." "By choosing to hold an election when polls overwhelming favour his party and are predicting a landslide victory, Abe should easily be able to ride his success and retain the LDP presidency in next September's leadership vote, which is held every three years."
Thanks Skyway. It make sense to me!
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