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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,421
  • Dec 13, 2014 3:44pm Dec 13, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Dear friend, my 12 years experience is a laughing matter for most of you. I never bragged about it, neither did i disturb any peace with my views. So far i have just stated my views with some charts. In these 12 years, i have blown countless accounts and gave given a good share of my hard earned money to this market, so i know how it feels when people lose money which is why i am giving my 2 cents worth to people who wants to take it. Please do ignore my views if you feel offended that i do not have the same view as yours. I mention 2 cents...
i am not laughing at anything. i think i did not express myself clearly. most of the time i try to stay unbiased and be able to trade both directions. when we are too convinced about the levels we become traumatized and can't react properly when something unexpected starts to unfold. therefore i avoid from getting married to a position and try to be able to see the market from both directions.
what happened this week can be a start of something significant or not. that is all we know. everybody has an opinion, thought, his own analysis and all that means absolutely NOTHING. this is all just a big noise.
market moves the way it has to and good traders moves along with it with empty and clear mind.
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As Above, So Below
  • #53,422
  • Edited 4:16pm Dec 13, 2014 4:03pm | Edited 4:16pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Your chart clearly shows bearish momentum. reached 61.8 resistance level and has turned down with a bearish doji. Is that supdem in your chart defining the resistance? your rsi is clearly in overbought area. Although it's too early to say it is a reversal, how much of retrace do you think this pair would go ? do you have other charts with retracement levels? appreciate if you could share it. Thanks
Hello stringfx, Well that's a monthly chart so a long way to close yet but it's a good sign of retrace. Yes that is the supdem. I find it rather good at marking SD for quick visual reference. The RSI is there for observational purposes (I'm not much of an indie guy) but I have watched it for some time and I'm "beginning" to detect patterns within it. Of course these are just my views and as we know, nothing is carved in stone.

On weekly - (mine closes 2 hours into Sunday night ) we have a near perfect hit and rejection of the last major swing's 161.8 extension. Again a good sign. If the pattern holds by the ratio (they do more often than not) I'd expect an overall primary target of 111.803 with a rather strong reaction at 114.865. Should that give way, test and hold the primary target is likely with a potential extension to SR at 110.615.
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On daily - We have a range of 118.940 to 117.223. Fib of the last major daily swing puts the 61.8 right about at the primary ratio target. Should the upper range hold and lower give way, test and hold the primary target is very likely overall. Keep in mind this is a daily and up view. I haven't broken down my day trading levels as I can't until we see PS form in an open market.
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However the 4H does show a bearish structure "as of now" and is under SR and the 50 & 100emas. Again, good signs. Conclusion, I'll be looking for shorts to complete the pattern until the market proves me wrong. Of course everyone needs to trade what they see and by their own plan. This is simply my view as of now. The market is fluid and we must be as well.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,423
  • Dec 13, 2014 4:09pm Dec 13, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} I second
As always, time will tell and we shall see.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,424
  • Dec 13, 2014 5:51pm Dec 13, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting Forexgogo
I would never go long for a while. The election will not push it up -- the market already pushed it up, knowing Abe would win. So Abe's winning doesn't do much. I see a big pin bar on the weekly (consider the last two weeks as one bar). It's just my two cents... {image}
I agree with you, it seems we are in the early stages of a much needed correction.
  • #53,425
  • Dec 13, 2014 6:15pm Dec 13, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting peeterwoolf
{quote} I agree with you, it seems we are in the early stages of a much needed correction.
Pure curiosity only, is there a specific reason behind this correction besides the obvious offered so far? Cause without any sigficant change on the fundamentals front nothing changes much. What I am getting at is the overall equilibrium has changed somewhat as compared to nfp week. By the time that becomes norm view in the future we will find ourselves behind the curve. Not that I need know all this as I make intraday trades for the odd 50 pips or so but this will be very relevant for position traders. My 2 cts.
  • #53,426
  • Dec 13, 2014 9:09pm Dec 13, 2014 9:09pm
Quoting Forexgogo
I would never go long for a while. The election will not push it up -- the market already pushed it up, knowing Abe would win. So Abe's winning doesn't do much. {image}

That's interesting, so you think the market's already incorporated the election expectations? But then why did it spend the week right before the election falling? If it was preparing for an imminent result I would've thought it would've kept rising.

I tend to think the election will have an effect, because although we can be pretty sure that he'll win, we don't know how many seats his party will win. So this will be like a normal high priority news event, where the result is sized up based on expectations. But I think the election overall is a Bullish event.

Plus, based on a new mandate and new confidence there's no telling what new measures the BOJ/Abe could come up with. If they were at all shy of public opinion before, that will be gone after the election.
  • #53,427
  • Edited 9:29pm Dec 13, 2014 9:19pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting Nilfmonkey
{quote} That's interesting, so you think the market's already incorporated the election expectations? But then why did it spend the week right before the election falling? If it was preparing for an imminent result I would've thought it would've kept rising. I tend to think the election will have an effect, because although we can be pretty sure that he'll win, we don't know how many seats his party will win. So this will be like a normal high priority news event, where the result is sized up based on expectations. But I think the election...
Exactly.....which brings us back to why uj fell last week post nfp...... and will it keep falling in the week[s] ahead ? ......again out of curiosity only.

Edit : Notice this is a dollar strength correction that's not isolated to the yen weakness.....so the query in my post above.
  • #53,428
  • Edited 9:54pm Dec 13, 2014 9:41pm | Edited 9:54pm
Hi all,

interesting points of view. I still see this as bullish overall. Daily hasn't broken 117.25 yet which would indicate that this is still bullish. If it does break 117.25 then I will look at taking positions short as the trend would have broken from the loss of that level. I think the correction is just that, a correction and not some kind of reversal.

Personally until it breaks that level I will not at shorting it. If this breaks through 119.55 and creates a new high then that indicates that uptrend is in tact to me and I will continue to look for opportunities to go long.

I still personally think the overall fundamentals of the market (to me are important) will have no choice but to drive this pair up. USD interest rate hikes are a positive sign for the currency and wouldn't expect dollar to be in a negative spiral against a recession hit yen.

At some point Oil will stop falling and go back up, people will stop taking their money out of it and putting it into the safe haven yen. Also if Abe carries on his Abenomics then that system will devalue the yen by default. To me a currency cannot get stronger if you are printing more of it. Japan are wanting to stop deflation by inflation. Coupled with US economy doing pretty well I would say it won't get anywhere near the 110 mark some of you are saying. (The euro is also getting propped up and that should also drop with the intro of QE).

My view is that price got rejected multiple times at 117.50 for good reason and didn't even touch the low of 117.25. Obviously this can still happen but I think we should be on our way to creating a new high and potential retest of 120/121 next week. Will have to reassess it after then. If Oil drops further we could see this sink a bit more but at 57 dollars a barrel I am wondering how much lower it will go.

That is my view of it next week but obviously can be wrong. Could have a drop and retest lower levels. Just the nature of the market. It is definitely interesting though.

Cheers

S
  • #53,429
  • Dec 13, 2014 9:51pm Dec 13, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting don555
What is the best timeframe to trade this pair and the reason for your answer ?
To be honest with you mate, there are so many opinions on this it is a difficult pair to trade at the min. It is kind of in a corrective period but no one knows for how long or what is going to happen

I would say that if you are not in this already then probably best to sit it out until either bears or bulls have taken control. At the moment with FOMC and elections it is very much in the balance and I wouldn't recommend getting stuck in the wrong side.

How long have you been trading? If you are experienced (in which case, I am not sure you would be asking this question) then probably a good scalping exercise. Other than that I would wait until it hits a new high or a new low.

The time frame is subjective to your type of trading. Do you want to do intraday or end of day? Are you a frequent trader or not. Do you trade technicals, fundamentals or Price Action? There are so many factors to getting trading right for you. I don't think anyone give you a definite answer to your question without knowing a bit about what you do already.

Hope that helps,

S
  • #53,430
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:05pm Dec 13, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} My Dear friend, There is no need of any name calling here. We have just stated our view. Laugh if you must as i mentioned earlier. There are options in FF to ignore people who does not support your view. What will you call yourself if Usd/jpy will not break the high and instead breaks the low. Think about it. If you are confident about your analysis, do your name calling after you have proved your point. Anyway elections are just around the corner, so you will get your answer on Monday morning. According to me, there is a c wave pending...
ive got long on the pending C wave. tp 119.30. if i may ask after C wave is formed, what happens after usually? like a new start of EW again likely ?
  • #53,431
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:09pm Dec 13, 2014 10:09pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Dear friend, my 12 years experience is a laughing matter for most of you. I never bragged about it, neither did i disturb any peace with my views. So far i have just stated my views with some charts. In these 12 years, i have blown countless accounts and gave given a good share of my hard earned money to this market, so i know how it feels when people lose money which is why i am giving my 2 cents worth to people who wants to take it. Please do ignore my views if you feel offended that i do not have the same view as yours. I mention 2 cents...
well said. i dont see any bragging anyway. still looking forward on ur techs chartings.
  • #53,432
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:37pm Dec 13, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting Nilfmonkey
{quote} But then why did it spend the week right before the election falling?
Because the stock (Dow and Nikkei) was falling.
  • #53,433
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:56pm Dec 13, 2014 10:56pm
Abe leading. US Senate passes spending bill, keeping USA open for business. Yes, big budget should be crappy for USD, and Abe should be priced in, but knowing both answers big unknowns for the U/J pair. I own the pair from last week, and intend to hang on for awhile. I will punt below 117 though.

Cheers
  • #53,434
  • Dec 13, 2014 11:53pm Dec 13, 2014 11:53pm
Dear Albchr,

Thank you very much for sharing your analysis. Great charts. Just a few questions to clarify .

In the supdem, on your monthly charts, you are using a lower timeframe SD. Is it daily or weekly ?
On your daily and 4 hr chart there is a yellow dotted line next to your 61.8 retracement value ? is that some sort of pivot or SR line. If so is it a monthly support?
you also have some orange dotted lines ? DO you keep lower Tf rolling pivots and SR as well in you higher TF charts?
Lastly with fxcm Mt4, does it use GMT time or GMT + or - ... if so how many hours behind or forward is it ?
Do you only use fib retracement only or expansion as well?
UJ pair has been a long time bull. In your research, how do you usually make out an end of a trend?
I clearly understand that it is a personal view of yours just as mine. Individual traders like us are like minnows in the ocean of forex. The big boys can turn the table in any direction whenever they wish. They already have pre-determined levels carved out but we can carve out some technical levels to swim along with the sharks. Anyway great analysis. Thank you again
STING
  • #53,435
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:08am Dec 14, 2014 12:08am
Dear TashKent,

Point taken. I am only posting here to help other and myself. I get comparative analysis and i try to reason out my own view with others view. In the end we are all trying to take a piece of this huge forex cake. appreciate the clarification. Thanks
STING
  • #53,436
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:15am Dec 14, 2014 12:15am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Pure curiosity only, is there a specific reason behind this correction besides the obvious offered so far? Cause without any sigficant change on the fundamentals front nothing changes much. What I am getting at is the overall equilibrium has changed somewhat as compared to nfp week. By the time that becomes norm view in the future we will find ourselves behind the curve. Not that I need know all this as I make intraday trades for the odd 50 pips or so but this will be very relevant for position traders. My 2 cts.
If you need a purely technical view from my side, please check post # 52927. Just my 2 cents. You can take what you feel from it.
STING
  • #53,437
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:24am Dec 14, 2014 12:24am
Quoting mk5
{quote} ive got long on the pending C wave. tp 119.30. if i may ask after C wave is formed, what happens after usually? like a new start of EW again likely ?
Dear Mk5,

If you check my earlier posts, i had mentioned that wave 5 of major wave 1 ended exactly at 61.8 expansion and was due for a retrace. Now this retrace is the 2nd wave up. Elliot says 2nd waves can go until the top of 1st wave (rare) but usually it retraces to 50% to 61.8%. It does this retracement in a 3 internal wave cycle which is the a-b-c. I believe the 'a' and 'b' are over and the 'c' wave which is the last one is yet to be made. Once the C wave completed which is normally 100% of wave a, then we start the major wave 3 down. we can calculate the wave 3 only after 2nd wave completes. Now if we are going to go above the first wave, then my count is absolutely wrong and i have to go to the drawing board again. So if the fundamentals break the high, then i am totally wrong. Other wise it's a pure bear trend all the way to 102. Good luck!
STING
  • #53,438
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:34am Dec 14, 2014 12:34am
Quoting stringfx
Dear Albchr, Thank you very much for sharing your analysis. Great charts. Just a few questions to clarify . In the supdem, on your monthly charts, you are using a lower timeframe SD. Is it daily or weekly ? On your daily and 4 hr chart there is a yellow dotted line next to your 61.8 retracement value ? is that some sort of pivot or SR line. If so is it a monthly support? you also have some orange dotted lines ? DO you keep lower Tf rolling pivots and SR as well in you higher TF charts? Lastly with fxcm Mt4, does it use GMT time or GMT + or - ......
The supdem would be a weekly. I don't view the monthly too often except to keep a view of price in overall range. I trade weekly and under as I'm not a position trader ... yet.

If you refer to the yellow dotted line that stretches the whole chart, that simply marks the overall ratio target. When ratios fall near fib levels it's a nice confluence.

Yes, the red dotted lines mark 4H and under SR levels and I do roll them into the upper TF's for reference.

On the fibs? Yes. I seek overlapping levels (confluence) from recent swings so both are used. This can be done all the way down to a 1M if one wishes.

As of now it's GMT. However I've just been informed fxcm will be moving to NY time (GMT+2) as of Dec. 15th for the daily close. I don't really care which as all it does is change the shape of the sticks. Price is price and levels are levels.

Not sure I understand your "end of trend" question? As a day trader I don't really trade (or even see) "trends". I see ranges occurring at different levels and I trade them both ways. That said, I do of course keep the overall "position trader's" trend in mind. As mentioned above, when I'm all growed up I'll trade positions.

All sharks leave a wake when they swim. Like drafting in NASCAR, tuck yourself tight enough in behind and let them tow you along.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #53,439
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:38am Dec 14, 2014 12:38am
Just a chart for monday.

THis is how i see it. Wave 1 ended at 117.46 wave 2 'a' and 'b' done. waiting for completion of c wave which i feel will end at Fe 100 (120.15) .. may overshoot to weekly pivot line at 120.33. If it decides to go further than that, at no point it should break the high of 121.83. if that's the case, then i am totally wrong in my count. Good luck and trade safe. On a retracement point of view, Fe 100 lies exactly on 61.8 retracement.
Here is a chart.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Uj wave c target.JPG Size: 165 KB
STING
  • #53,440
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:44am Dec 14, 2014 12:44am
Not sure I understand your "end of trend" question? As a day trader I don't really trade (or even see) "trends". I see ranges occurring at different levels and I trade them both ways. That said, I do of course keep the overall "position trader's" trend in mind. As mentioned above, when I'm all growed up I'll trade positions.

All sharks leave a wake when they swim. Like drafting in NASCAR, tuck yourself tight enough in behind and let them tow you along.

Thanks and nicely put
STING
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