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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,381
  • Dec 12, 2014 11:24am Dec 12, 2014 11:24am
Thank you so much sir. It helps !


Quoting stringfx
{quote} Lack of patience and itchy fingers ... been there done that! Never gonna waste hard earned money that way again. Please apply discipline. It's the only way to fight this vicious markets and improve equity. take it from an old man.
  • #53,382
  • Dec 12, 2014 11:29am Dec 12, 2014 11:29am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Looks like it's defended .... Just about the same time we saw UJ spike down, Crude also drop to $57 then suddenly back up again and spike everywhere for XXXUSD pairs including Gold.
true I saw that, some bear usd momo got us real hard but check out $DXY holding that bottom like a champ.

What really is going through mi mind is that if we donīt lift off soon I wonīt be able to hold this during the weekend
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  • #53,383
  • Dec 12, 2014 12:25pm Dec 12, 2014 12:25pm
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/down...3225&mode=view
  • #53,384
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:11pm Dec 12, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting Ken A
Looks like 118.00 will hold ..... {image}
  • #53,385
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:15pm Dec 12, 2014 1:15pm
Closed some for +50 pips - not bad

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  • #53,386
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:16pm Dec 12, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Ken A
Closed some for +50 pips - not bad {image}
Nice

You leaving anything open over the weekend Ken?
  • #53,387
  • Edited 1:33pm Dec 12, 2014 1:21pm | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Nice You leaving anything open over the weekend Ken?
Yep, always have .....

Fresh longs not including the old one

Edit: delete details

Attachment
  • #53,388
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:27pm Dec 12, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yep, always have ..... Fresh longs not including the old one {image}
Wow nice one on that 114 though. Real Gem that one.

How do you manage your profit, since you dont move your stop up?
  • #53,389
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:38pm Dec 12, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Been riding XXXJPY from Oct 2012 - still got from 96.5x ... I usually open multiple orders so close one then let the other run ... But since we are nearing the top of the range just open one or two then partial profits to cover the stops in case I decide not to move them.
Impressive.

What kind of trader are you and what is your secret?

S
  • #53,390
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:44pm Dec 12, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No secret - but trade small - this is not to get rich quick business
Agreed. Long term consistency beats short term irrationality.

So do you usually look for a certain percentage or pips per month/year/decade lol
  • #53,391
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:46pm Dec 12, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Agreed. Long term consistency beats short term irrationality. So do you usually look for a certain percentage or pips per month/year/decade lol
No not worried about that ........

Get the market direction right then the pips and $$$ will follow ....
  • #53,392
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:50pm Dec 12, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No not worried about that ........ Get the market direction right then the pips and $$$ will follow ....
So in your opinion what factors do you think drives the markets?

How important are the following to you. Fundamentals, technicals, price action. I am guessing that daily news is just noise to your trading? How would you determine your entry?

I feel like I am getting an education. Blessed.
  • #53,393
  • Dec 12, 2014 2:13pm Dec 12, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yields. Market always go for profits and safety. {quote} Eco data is important to me as to market - for some they are noises but it helps me to enter or get out of market in case positions are against the data. Central Banks policies are important to follow ..... Technicals and PA are important at the least historical of the charts. But hey everyone is different, some say technicals drive fundamental, price will drop because MACD crosses or divergence .... bla bla bla
Thanks man.

Really interesting.

Agree everyone is different. I look at long term economic conditions of the markets, then look at daily trend, then drill down to H1/4 explore the technicals of the markets like key support, then I drill down to PA and daily news to find entries. I am trying to adapt my journal to help quantify this a bit better. Markets are all about probability but I don't want to do that analysis paralysis thing so trying to make sure that I keep to the basics.

Appreciate your time mate.
  • #53,394
  • Dec 12, 2014 6:15pm Dec 12, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Have a suggestion but that will go against risk management - so probably not .... {quote} There's one and only reliable source in this market dynamics - the rest are fakes
Ken & Tashkent,

my ass is still in one piece

moved Stops!
just do it
  • #53,395
  • Dec 12, 2014 9:17pm Dec 12, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting thodie
{quote} Ken & Tashkent, my ass is still in one piece moved Stops!
I was preparing for this:

Shinzo Abe and the Japanese election – the Guardian briefing

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  • #53,396
  • Dec 12, 2014 9:23pm Dec 12, 2014 9:23pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I was preparing for this: Shinzo Abe and the Japanese election – the Guardian briefing {image}

So if he loses jpy might slip even further ?
  • #53,397
  • Dec 12, 2014 10:16pm Dec 12, 2014 10:16pm
Got in bullish to prepare for Abe win. Prepared for volatility with no SL.

Factors in favor of bullishness:
1. Abe re-election reaffirms Abenomics and QE
2. BOJ statement reaffirms QE
3. Strengthening USD data and Fed QE wind down

Factors for bearishness:
1. If Abe doesn't win as many seats as expected, could lead to jpy appreciation
2. After a huge jump from 107-121, the pair may need more time to relieve bearish pressure

Neutral Factors:
1. Falling oil prices have an appreciating effect on both currencies, but probably more for JPY as Japan's not an oil producer
  • #53,398
  • Dec 13, 2014 1:36am Dec 13, 2014 1:36am
[quote=Nilfmonkey;7941921]Got in bullish to prepare for Abe win. Prepared for volatility with no SL. Factors in favor of bullishness

Did the same. Don't want to be stopped out before fun starts and of late one does not know how far down it may spike. Good luck to all.
  • #53,399
  • Dec 13, 2014 1:48am Dec 13, 2014 1:48am
Guess this is the fun part of trading good luck to all
  • #53,400
  • Dec 13, 2014 3:12am Dec 13, 2014 3:12am
I would never go long for a while. The election will not push it up -- the market already pushed it up, knowing Abe would win. So Abe's winning doesn't do much.

I see a big pin bar on the weekly (consider the last two weeks as one bar).

It's just my two cents...
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