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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,321
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:30am Dec 12, 2014 3:30am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} OUT +68 {image}
nice
  • #53,322
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:31am Dec 12, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} What happens if 117.4 gets taken out??????
Look for 115.28-50 for next support
STING
  • #53,323
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:37am Dec 12, 2014 3:37am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Look for 115.28-50 for next support
I see 116.7 as low before push back upwards. Coincides with last major pullback of about 500 pips back in October.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 86 KB
  • #53,324
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:40am Dec 12, 2014 3:40am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} What happens if 117.4 gets taken out??????
That's why I use sl 117.86 where it invalids the count breaking bottom channel line, with a small loss if I'm wrong.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #53,325
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:44am Dec 12, 2014 3:44am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Look for 115.28-50 for next support
considered finishing B wave?
  • #53,326
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:54am Dec 12, 2014 3:54am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} That's why I use sl 117.86 where it invalids the count breaking bottom channel line, with a small loss if I'm wrong.
I very much beg to differ. You present your short TF wave counts and indicate strongly that the plan will map out as stated. Many people on public forums will take your statement as being well considered and follow. I have said to you many times that one must always present an alternate count. You know enough about waves to know that there are multiple options - and presenting a short TF count has little impact when we're talking (here) about daily or weekly time frames.

For what it's worth, I would not be surprised to eventually see that UJ et al are actually in a large triangle formation, rather than plain bearish to new lows in one move.
  • #53,327
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:57am Dec 12, 2014 3:57am
Guys,

This market turned bearish when it failed to hold above the 200 SMA twice. Keep selling rallies until we hold and close above the 200 SMA. Simple.
Time waits for no one
  • #53,328
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:28am Dec 12, 2014 4:28am
Quoting mk5
{quote} considered finishing B wave?
I will not risk until the low is taken out coz 50% was not touched. it can make a high above 119.55 imo. so be careful. The 1 HR si in oversold territory.. long way to go in 4hr.
STING
  • #53,329
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:31am Dec 12, 2014 4:31am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I will not risk until the low is taken out coz 50% was not touched. it can make a high above 119.55 imo. so be careful. The 1 HR si in oversold territory.. long way to go in 4hr.
right. didnt take notice that. thanks mate !
  • #53,330
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:31am Dec 12, 2014 4:31am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} I see 116.7 as low before push back upwards. Coincides with last major pullback of about 500 pips back in October. {image}
What support is that 116.7 line in your chart?
STING
  • #53,331
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:37am Dec 12, 2014 4:37am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I very much beg to differ. You present your short TF wave counts and indicate strongly that the plan will map out as stated. Many people on public forums will take your statement as being well considered and follow. I have said to you many times that one must always present an alternate count. You know enough about waves to know that there are multiple options - and presenting a short TF count has little impact when we're talking (here) about daily or weekly time frames. For what it's worth, I would not be surprised to eventually see that...
I've only spoken to you once or twice, but please explain How "one must always present an alternate count".
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #53,332
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:40am Dec 12, 2014 4:40am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} What support is that 116.7 line in your chart?
Just taking the high and low of the last major retrace and moving it onto the previous high. If history repeats itself I would expect at least the same amount of pullback.
  • #53,333
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:47am Dec 12, 2014 4:47am
Folks,

My 2 cents view,

If 2nd wave or B wave is over (didn't touch 50% by 3-4 pips) then the next support or TP (take some off) is at FE 38.2 fib (117.88 in my chart). Once the low is taken out, next target is FE 61.8 (116.84) and then FE 100 which could be a turning point for 1 more retrace. currently i am still under the impression that there will be a bounce from 38.2 for a high above 119.55 (possibility) .. If it takes the low out then we go into complete Bear outlook in my opinion.
Here is a chart..

Stochs show 1 hr in oversold area but that does not mean a thing ... it can just plummet down. Look for the low to be taken out now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hr UJ.JPG Size: 163 KB
STING
  • #53,334
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:02am Dec 12, 2014 5:02am
Quoting goodthings
Do not have the statistical probabilities on this but the UsdJpy normally retraces to atleast the 23.6 level of the weekly highs and lows. Obviously there is a very strong uptrend.



http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1182127637
Nice .....
  • #53,335
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:13am Dec 12, 2014 5:13am
Similar to stringfx
IMHO we have just entered the long-entry zone.
Stop at 117.5 or perhaps a bit below.
If 117.5 does not hold we are going down.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014_12_12_UJ_1hr.png Size: 20 KB
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #53,336
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:20am Dec 12, 2014 5:20am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Nice .....
. Tells you something about a day in the market when hyperbusy Ken A. digs up posts from 2007...

But obviously we are in a very strong uptrend...
Fail better.
  • #53,337
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:23am Dec 12, 2014 5:23am
Quoting Exodus
Similar to stringfx IMHO we have just entered the long-entry zone. Stop at 117.5 or perhaps a bit below. If 117.5 does not hold we are going down..... {image}
agreed. see a poss 80-100 pip bounce, perhaps on the back (or front) of solid US data later.
  • #53,338
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:23am Dec 12, 2014 5:23am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} . Tells you something about a day in the market when hyperbusy Ken A. digs up posts from 2007... But obviously we are in a very strong uptrend...
This is one hell of good analysis .....

Btw, have a look at EURNZD

Quoting cesarnc
{quote} Look out your window. If you see one of this, then you can get back to that chart.

http://www.searchingforagem.com/FlyingPig.gif​
  • #53,339
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:31am Dec 12, 2014 5:31am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} This is one hell of good analysis ..... Btw, have a look at EURNZD {quote}
Just had a look at UsdTry and EurTry: turkish lira in freefall? Friday is a good time for intervention...
Fail better.
  • #53,340
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:39am Dec 12, 2014 5:39am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Just had a look at UsdTry and EurTry: turkish lira in freefall? Friday is a good time for intervention...
Yes, along with RUB, NOK, etc ... Crude Oild related

Didn't touch TRY lately - having difficulty closing order without suffering crazy spreads ....

Attached Image
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