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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,301
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:07pm Dec 11, 2014 9:07pm
Perhaps too many have become bearish on a bullish a trend, as this pair just doesn't seem to give up (unless it comes crashing down later on).
  • #53,302
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:08pm Dec 11, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Or the c wave starts right here
looks like it
  • #53,303
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:11pm Dec 11, 2014 9:11pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Or the c wave starts right here
You could be right, hard to work out that corrective b wave. Anyway I've set a price alert as soon as it drops below a.
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  • #53,304
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:21pm Dec 11, 2014 10:21pm
My current trade and outlook for USDJPY going into end of December:

I am short @ 119.050 SL 120 TP 116.8. I see further downside to end out the year in December I am targeting 116.8 level as bottom/end of correction here and will look to load back up long there. This is of course a big countertrend trade but I believe the long USDJPY position is severely overcrowded at this time and a correction is indeed due(as evident in the PA). If I am proved to be wrong and my SL is hit at 120 I will most likely reassess and proceed to go long in accordance with the overall trend.

(My SL is now BE in accordance to my trading rules http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=515955&page=2 +40 pips letting it ride out)
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  • #53,305
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:40pm Dec 11, 2014 10:40pm
guessing many that are stilll holding their shorts have no idea tt jpn elections are on sunday. with consensus tt abenomics will continue for nxt 2 years.
  • #53,306
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:44pm Dec 11, 2014 10:44pm
BNP Paribas is out with its top FX trades for 2015.

BNPP 2015 Top Trades: Buy USD/JPY Targeting 128

Trade#3: Buy USD/JPY targeting 128.
Rationale:
1- Despite the fact that USDJPY has already rallied substantially, we believe there is more to come in 2015. The BoJ’s ‘shock and awe’ approach has been effective in triggering quick JPY sell-offs.

2- However, the underlying story of Japanese investor outflows, driven by increasingly negative interest rates at home, is only starting to play out and should drive the yen lower, even in the absence of further BoJ policy action.

3- The risk is that the move becomes too fast for the MoF’s liking, but as we saw in late 2014, mild jawboning merely slows the USDJPY uptrend.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #53,307
  • Edited 11:09pm Dec 11, 2014 10:52pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting Bicarus
guessing many that are stilll holding their shorts have no idea tt jpn elections are on sunday. with consensus tt abenomics will continue for nxt 2 years.
Nah...that's been known for awhile...Trade the price. Think like a greedy ass banker.

If you look at the price say on a 5 minute. The angle/steepness that price has been falling in relation to the rises is pretty evident right now. Big reason I took the short. I am of course extremely long biased USDJPY without a doubt. Just short makes sense to me right here based on the PA. It was the same when prices were rising on the left. Price going up = steeper than falls.

If 118.6 falls we are in for a big drop good support right now.
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  • #53,308
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:21pm Dec 11, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
BNP Paribas is out with its top FX trades for 2015. BNPP 2015 Top Trades: Buy USD/JPY Targeting 128 Trade#3: Buy USD/JPY targeting 128. Rationale: 1- Despite the fact that USDJPY has already rallied substantially, we believe there is more to come in 2015. The BoJ’s ‘shock and awe’ approach has been effective in triggering quick JPY sell-offs. 2- However, the underlying story of Japanese investor outflows, driven by increasingly negative interest rates at home, is only starting to play out and should drive the yen lower, even in the absence of further...
Thank you. Good tp to take position for.....while lots of work in the mean time.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #53,309
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:29pm Dec 11, 2014 11:29pm
Pay attention to the Chinese news coming in 1 minute (ex: industrial production. Chinese renminbi (yuan) = competitor of U.S. dollar. If China's news = bearish, it's good for the dollar = good for USD/JPY.

The news won't make a massive immediate impact, but it can serve as a gradual starter of bullish momentum upwards again (intraday)

Have fun.
  • #53,310
  • Dec 12, 2014 12:12am Dec 12, 2014 12:12am
I'd say the underbelly effect of Too Cheap Oil will destroy the Yen mid term when the U.S. government can't bail out the HUGE ENERGY Junk bond market implosion thats looming near.

Vast amounts of Cheap money went to fund the Oil Fracking Stunt over the past few years. paybacks are defaulting in value.

Opec is smarter than anticipated and magically still in price control. They keep over producing oil to drawn out all the small cap oil companies into bankruptcy. This underworld Cheap money contagion is spreading into everything.

Typical negligent thought out move the Fed played paving the way for this new kind of bubble. One big thing is they forgot Fracking would not sustain to give the U.S. oil independence entangled in a GLOBAL ECONOMY.


Japan is a net oil importer, when cheap oil flips the script again becoming for a period of time a good $150+ a barrel That happily in house devalued YEN currency wont afford any gasoline for the local Folks! This is a Trojan Horse. Wake Up Japan That "Little America" Stunt Your pulling is Going To jack-Knife Your Grill.

fellow traders I have trader Treasury Futures for several years, and have recently noticed unusual behavior. This fresh big deal disaster is growing by the day.

The underside freak show is going to shake the entire "Money Tree" Think wisely trading everything it's not all about the Yen The other majors are in play for Shock-N-Awe.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #53,311
  • Dec 12, 2014 12:55am Dec 12, 2014 12:55am
more down to come
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As Above, So Below
  • #53,312
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:27am Dec 12, 2014 1:27am
Quoting tashkent
more down to come {image}
Possible, but not for now. There's strong support at the major "xxx"JPY" pairs on the Dec 12 lows, and we haven't quite finished the intraday bullish momentum; there's a definite chance of retesting 119.55 within today. I myself am leaning towards the bulls for Friday with the current state of things so long as the 184.5 holds up

But it really boils down to stimulus; bullish news for the dollar would all but guarantee that spike up. And if it's bearish, say hello to 117.5

Of course, after that, I'm lying flat until I see a clear direction on the decision point.

Kent, are you an intraday, short term, medium term, or long term trader?
  • #53,313
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:50am Dec 12, 2014 1:50am
Quoting AdelPC
USDJPY coming down to test 117.94, perhaps?
So it did broke 117.94 ... went down to 117.43, then shot back up to 119.55.
But now USDJPY appears not knowing which way to go.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #53,314
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:59am Dec 12, 2014 1:59am
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} So it did broke 117.94 ... went down to 117.43, then shot back up to 119.55. But now USDJPY appears not knowing which way to go.
we're at the pivot point now. we'll see something. I don't know what, but it's something.
  • #53,315
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:02am Dec 12, 2014 3:02am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Nah...that's been known for awhile...Trade the price. Think like a greedy ass banker. If you look at the price say on a 5 minute. The angle/steepness that price has been falling in relation to the rises is pretty evident right now. Big reason I took the short. I am of course extremely long biased USDJPY without a doubt. Just short makes sense to me right here based on the PA. It was the same when prices were rising on the left. Price going up = steeper than falls. If 118.6 falls we are in for a big drop good support right now. {image}
Looking good so far...let see... gotta hold below the trendline...
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  • #53,316
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:04am Dec 12, 2014 3:04am
It's testing 61.82 retracement near bottom channel line before the advance - that's usually the case at the beginning of a 5th wave.
Stay long or a good place for entry with sl under channel line.
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  • #53,317
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:17am Dec 12, 2014 3:17am
i hope you long people have some sl's in place .. many accounts are going to the slaughter house today.
STING
  • #53,318
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:20am Dec 12, 2014 3:20am
looks like its going down for now

http://s2.postimg.org/pk4vmnrzd/sell2.png
Profit is on the other side of your mind
  • #53,319
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:20am Dec 12, 2014 3:20am
Quoting skyhok
It's testing 61.82 retracement near bottom channel line before the advance - that's usually the case at the beginning of a 5th wave. Stay long or a good place for entry with sl under channel line. {image}
What happens if 117.4 gets taken out??????
  • #53,320
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:24am Dec 12, 2014 3:24am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Looking good so far...let see... gotta hold below the trendline... {image}
OUT +68
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