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  • #943,041
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:33pm Dec 11, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting cspip
{quote} Read somewhere that the Arab countries can be 'alright' with the lower oil prices, even abit more.....but a couple of the OPEC countries like Iran are losing money on each barrel of oil priced below $70.......at $70 they break even and anything above is profit.....
Look, Arab country is Iraq, Libya and Algeria but they need much higher price than today. You think on Persian gulf Arab despots, partly true. Small countries(like Qatar, gas export, or UAE) can survive longer on this price, even lower, but SA can play this game around year, eventually two in best case, but they lose money on protection same level of currency. Just go and see charts of that nations currencies and you will see that they are straight even oil price fall nearly 50%. Look and norwegian krone, ruble or even canadian dollar, fall 25%-50%, in range with oil fall. That is normal.
I read some propaganda nonsense in western media about russian budget on $100 foot barrel. True, on 33 ruble for one $ but with 55 for $ , this price for oil is not problem, pure math. On other hand inflation will be higher, from 6-7% to 10-12%, but that is temporarily.
  • #943,042
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:34pm Dec 11, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Reached $16 late 90s and has served as a perfect benchmark for almost every single economic peak and valley cycle in the last century. Mid $40s / $50s is the real comparable price in todays price. Below $70 for extended time will put Venezuela, Russia and Nigeria under severe pressure and operating almost at lost (given the huge public dependency on oil). Below $60 for a long time will put almost all new shale in the US out of business and cancel any new exploration/extraction except for the super efficient cheap producer in the M. East....
now price in the reset, w/o gulf wars.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,043
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:37pm Dec 11, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Gold down down...
its not for scalping. reread
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,044
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:39pm Dec 11, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} btw i dont know what world u live in. i live in reality, u.s. energy production up. so w/o the added cost of war added to a barrel of oil, its much cheaper. even cheaper then the price reflects. putin knew this, that why he supports some of the crazies killing there own people
Not sure if i got this right, you are saying Putin supports war in Ukraine, becouse he benefits from low Oil prices?
  • #943,045
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:40pm Dec 11, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its not for scalping. reread
Ofcourse, i am well aware of that.
  • #943,046
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:41pm Dec 11, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} now price in the reset w/o gulf wars.
Coincidentally (or maybe not) the quarter after the end of both wars price is in exactly the same place (mid $60s). Without taking into account any other factors If history repeat itself price should drop at least 40% from war to peace time. Adjusted to inflation we should be looking at high $30s by the end of next year ...je je ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #943,047
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:42pm Dec 11, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Not sure if i got this right, you are saying Putin supports war in Ukraine, becouse he benefits from low Oil prices?
no,, gulf oil. prier to ukrain
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,048
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:43pm Dec 11, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} btw i dont know what world u live in. i live in reality, u.s. energy production up. so w/o the added cost of war added to a barrel of oil, its much cheaper. even cheaper then the price reflects. putin knew this, that why he supports some of the crazies killing there own people
I live in world when one country creates wars on pure lies. In what world you live?
US oil and gas production is up because two reasons:
1) because oil price was high, but even on that price us shale company have negative cash flow
2) because FED manipulate with market and use QE and ZIRP to lower interest rates. That is case for nat. gas and oil in USA.
That FED policy lead to bubbles, like was housing bubble with low interest rates in Bush 2 era after dot-com bubble.
  • #943,049
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:50pm Dec 11, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting Nexon
{quote} I live in world when one country creates wars on pure lies. In what world you live? US oil and gas production is up because two reasons: 1) because oil price was high, but even on that price us shale company are negative cash flow 2) because FED manipulate with market and use QE and ZIRP to lower interest rates. That is case for nat. gas and oil in USA. That FED policy lead to bubbles, like was housing bubble with low interest rates in Bush 2 era after dot-com bubble.
ok, and is the price of oil/energy down? even with all this inflationary easy money?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,050
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:55pm Dec 11, 2014 3:55pm
caged dog wants a bone..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,051
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:04pm Dec 11, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ok, and is the price of oil/energy down? even with all this inflationary easy money?
Can i ask something: what is so fundamentally change that in june 2014 brent was $115 and now is $64? There must be something really big, like 2008, global recession for that move, not several hundreds barrels of oil lower in demand, what is cover by cut of some OPEC members. Tell me what you think?
  • #943,052
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:04pm Dec 11, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looking at the second part now. when the uj reaches 119.88.. the eu may bounce some. (maybe 2430). time will tell us if it shakes the correlation. too early for a real st speculation.. a 243x bounce before the drop aims at a LL
2432ish w/o a hh
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,053
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:09pm Dec 11, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting Nexon
{quote} Can i ask something: what is so fundamentally change that in june 2014 brent was $115 and now is $64? There must be something really big, like 2008, global recession for that move, not several hundreds barrels of oil lower in demand, what is cover by cut of some OPEC members. Tell me what you think?
no. supply up drops price. OPEC monopoly irrelevant. Stronger usd drops price.
look at the rise in reverse. weaker usd. running out of oil propaganda. 2 wars..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,054
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:09pm Dec 11, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting janpec1000
EU wants some mid term up move at moment. http://prntscr.com/5frixq
Done.
  • #943,055
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:12pm Dec 11, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} no. supply up drops price. OPEC monopoly irrelevant. Stronger usd drops price. look at the rise in reverse. weaker usd. running out of oil propaganda. 2 wars..
Reasons for oil price drop:

1.Extensive supply (USA+OPEC)
2.USD strenght

Enough said.


What is the most irational part of news comments on price drop is "decrease of demand" on oil. How can one call decrease of oil if China swallows any extended supply that world gives at lower price???
  • #943,056
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:16pm Dec 11, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Reasons for oil price drop: 1.Extensive supply (USA+OPEC) 2.USD strenght Enough said. What is the most irational part of news comments on price drop is "decrease of demand" on oil. How can one call decrease of oil if China swallows any extended supply that world gives at lower price???
china demand dropped... search copper under me
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,057
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:19pm Dec 11, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}something stinks. china #s dont match copper or iron. if china pmi #s are correct. the aud would not have fallen so much. metal prices are showing a shift opposite of what china is selling.
clues of bs
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #943,058
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:24pm Dec 11, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} china demand dropped... search copper under me
Might be in last few days.

As for AUD drop it came from CB mostly. Aussie CB wants it lower, therefore it lead to drop i dont think any hidden parts of metal had to do with it. Just look at that surprising quick drop on it on comments of CB. They target 7500, which might as well bring rate cut next year.
  • #943,059
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:26pm Dec 11, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} no. supply up drops price. OPEC monopoly irrelevant. Stronger usd drops price. look at the rise in reverse. weaker usd. running out of oil propaganda. 2 wars..
Oil propaganda?
Supply are known in june. That is not reason. Wars are still there, USA bomb ISIS in Iraq. Quite contrary, attack on ISIS start in second half of 2014, which was bullish for oil but oil not jump.
  • #943,060
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:28pm Dec 11, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Reasons for oil price drop: 1.Extensive supply (USA+OPEC) 2.USD strenght Enough said. What is the most irational part of news comments on price drop is "decrease of demand" on oil. How can one call decrease of oil if China swallows any extended supply that world gives at lower price???
Supply was known in first half of 2014 and price go up.
Yes, you begin to think, demand is quiet stupid reason to justify fall of 50%.
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