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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,241
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:17am Dec 11, 2014 9:17am
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Hey String, thanks for the reply. I trade other pairs as well. Just UJ interested me a lot more before the drop lol. GU and EU I trade too. EU looked bullish but now am not sure. December is a crazy month anyway, never really sure what to expect. I use a journal so normally I look for certain criteria and base my probability off that. I find writing it down helps (not all the time) to stick to certain rules. Need to get my discipline spot on though. How long have you been trading for?
I've been trading these markets for 12+ years. I joined FF in 2006 but am not an active member. Last week i noticed a trend change and when i checked, i saw a lot of people going long. so i thought i will put in my 2 cents to convince them to short. Most of my posts are with chart explanations (if you check my recent posts).

Uj is on the way to 50% and also EU. From now( i.e 50%) onwards, i will short UJ at every important fib level and put my SL 3 pips above the high.
STING
  • #53,242
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:21am Dec 11, 2014 9:21am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Why would you say FOMC would give us a new high? Other than NFP, most of the economic indicators have been weak for US. NFP printed higher number because a lot of temp hiring was done to accommodate the shortage of staff during the holiday season shopping, so that is not a figure we can base our assumptions. US index have shrunk a lot in the past few days, so IMO FOMC would declare that dollar is weakening and i suppose that should be enough for traders worldwide to sell the dollar again, in which case UJ will go down again. The next possible...
good stuff, thank you, although i still believe US most important growth indicators are rising at a moderate pace, (in line with feds objectives) and from the last few meetings, the fed has been mostly hawkish, and expect some revision of the policy statement (and think about it, what can they possibly say that will make dollar go down? given that nothing has changed since last meeting- and only gotten better) i expect them to take "considerable time" out of language which that alone is big because it can show rate hikes sooner then later (possibly) and this UJ trend is still bullish, this week was the correction everyone was waiting for, no reversal - a reversal would need some drastic changes in US growth... monetary policy divergence between eurozone, japan, and US will keep dollar strength against majors (assuming continuing good data)

oh and my next possible support is at 116.9 but we can forget about that for now
  • #53,243
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:21am Dec 11, 2014 9:21am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I've been trading these markets for 12+ years. I joined FF in 2006 but am not an active member. Last week i noticed a trend change and when i checked, i saw a lot of people going long. so i thought i will put in my 2 cents to convince them to short. Most of my posts are with chart explanations (if you check my recent posts). Uj is on the way to 50% and also EU. From now( i.e 50%) onwards, i will short UJ at every important fib level and put my SL 3 pips above the high.

never felt better. enlighten me further with 3pips above the high. which high are you talking about?
that days high +3 or 50% level high +3
  • #53,244
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:23am Dec 11, 2014 9:23am
119.6 must be broken and closed above to give me more conviction ....
  • #53,245
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:40am Dec 11, 2014 9:40am
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Hey String, thanks for the reply. I trade other pairs as well. Just UJ interested me a lot more before the drop lol. GU and EU I trade too. EU looked bullish but now am not sure. December is a crazy month anyway, never really sure what to expect. I use a journal so normally I look for certain criteria and base my probability off that. I find writing it down helps (not all the time) to stick to certain rules. Need to get my discipline spot on though. How long have you been trading for?
I've been trading these markets for 12+ years. Joined FF in 2006 but not an active member. I do my trading mostly in silence. Last week i noticed a trend change is possible and while checking through these forums, i found so many people thinking this could be a retracement and going long, so i thought i would give my 2 cents to convince some of them to go short instead. Although i gave chart explanations in most of my post, it was not helping.
Anyway i have been wrong many times as well, so didn't want to stress a lot. Markets are so unpredictable these days. I also know i still could be wrong. Unless UJ breaking the low and EU breaking the high, anything can happen.
Trade safe ... remember 95% lose money in forex and it's really tough to be among the 5%, so when you do get an opportunity, grab it!!!

THis post is a repeat coz my internet got a bit stuck in between, so i had to retype it.
STING
  • #53,246
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:46am Dec 11, 2014 9:46am
Quoting mk5
{quote} never felt better. enlighten me further with 3pips above the high. which high are you talking about? that days high +3 or 50% level high +3
3 pips above the highest high in UJ 121.86 . I trade very low leverage, forex is not a get rich quick scheme. make your money slowly but consistently.
STING
  • #53,247
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:49am Dec 11, 2014 9:49am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} 3 pips above the highest high in UJ 121.86 . I trade very low leverage, forex is not a get rich quick scheme. make your money slowly but consistently.
wow ! correct me if im wrong. thatd be 200pips away from 50%
  • #53,248
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:56am Dec 11, 2014 9:56am
tped both positions at 2375. phew
  • #53,249
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:57am Dec 11, 2014 9:57am
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} good stuff, thank you, although i still believe US most important growth indicators are rising at a moderate pace, (in line with feds objectives) and from the last few meetings, the fed has been mostly hawkish, and expect some revision of the policy statement (and think about it, what can they possibly say that will make dollar go down? given that nothing has changed since last meeting- and only gotten better) i expect them to take "considerable time" out of language which that alone is big because it can show rate hikes sooner then later...
Liam,

You might be right, but just be careful when you notice a possibility of a trend change. Fundamentals will follow technicals but it will take some time to sink in. I read in some site that the smart money had already started selling dollar 3 weeks back. It's us retailers pushing the price up.

In UJ chart check it closely. DO you notice a divergence in the oscillators on 1 hr. Here is chart.. this can drop drastically anytime. I am using stochs 21,3,3
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 1hr divergence.JPG Size: 172 KB
STING
  • #53,250
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:01am Dec 11, 2014 10:01am
Liam, according to S&R , the next support is 116.45 and then 115.49 but once this retracement is over, fibs can calculate almost precise targets using fib expansion.

Us index has just hit 50%. Lets see if it will go to 61.8. The new 4 hr candle has just started..
STING
  • #53,251
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:02am Dec 11, 2014 10:02am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I've been trading these markets for 12+ years. I joined FF in 2006 but am not an active member. Last week i noticed a trend change.
This forum and we people needed you why you were silent ? Please teach us how to trade more rationally and whatever knowledge and experience you've got in the mean time worth sharing.
The master knows exactly the right time to do nothing.
  • #53,252
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:05am Dec 11, 2014 10:05am
Quoting Au.trader
{quote} This forum and we people needed you why you were silent ? Please teach us how to trade more rationally and whatever knowledge and experience you've got in the mean time worth sharing.
speak for yourself
As Above, So Below
  • #53,253
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:17am Dec 11, 2014 10:17am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} speak for yourself
Well that was not a serious post just making mock out of it
The master knows exactly the right time to do nothing.
  • #53,254
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:19am Dec 11, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Au.trader
{quote} Well that was not a serious post just making mock out of it
misunderstanding. sorry
As Above, So Below
  • #53,255
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:20am Dec 11, 2014 10:20am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Liam, You might be right, but just be careful when you notice a possibility of a trend change. Fundamentals will follow technicals but it will take some time to sink in. I read in some site that the smart money had already started selling dollar 3 weeks back. It's us retailers pushing the price up. In UJ chart check it closely. DO you notice a divergence in the oscillators on 1 hr. Here is chart.. this can drop drastically anytime. I am using stochs 21,3,3 {image}
good analysis
  • #53,256
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:34am Dec 11, 2014 10:34am
Quoting Liam0530
had a buy limit waiting at 117.5 which opened up , looks like potential bottem imo, if it turns out not to be then it shouldnt have that much more down to go (116.9, 116.05, 115.6) Fomc should give us new highs next week....
How did you get to the decision of buy limit at 117.500...is it afib level?
Whenever i buy the price goes up & whenever i sell the the price goes down!
  • #53,257
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:27am Dec 11, 2014 11:27am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Liam, You might be right, but just be careful when you notice a possibility of a trend change. Fundamentals will follow technicals but it will take some time to sink in. I read in some site that the smart money had already started selling dollar 3 weeks back. It's us retailers pushing the price up. In UJ chart check it closely. DO you notice a divergence in the oscillators on 1 hr. Here is chart.. this can drop drastically anytime. I am using stochs 21,3,3 {image}
Trading for 12 years and the conclusion;

1. Fundamentals will follow technicals
2. Retailers are moving forex market
3. Price will move because indicators say so

  • #53,258
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:29am Dec 11, 2014 11:29am
time to buy e dip. next target 123.4ish.
  • #53,259
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:36am Dec 11, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Trading for 12 years and the conclusion; 1. Fundamentals will follow technicals 2. Retailers are moving forex market 3. Price will move because indicators say so

You just made the precise point.
The master knows exactly the right time to do nothing.
  • #53,260
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:48am Dec 11, 2014 11:48am
UJ 15M Chart:
[Had to revise the previous count]
Cheers, U2

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7938269
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