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USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #53,181
  • Dec 10, 2014 9:30pm Dec 10, 2014 9:30pm
* Some investors see yen falling to 200, even 300 vs dollar

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0TU24M20141210

  • #53,182
  • Dec 10, 2014 10:00pm Dec 10, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting intj
* Some investors see yen falling to 200, even 300 vs dollar http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0TU24M20141210
you do realize that's like a 3 year forecast right? Lots of ups and down between then.
  • #53,183
  • Dec 10, 2014 10:11pm Dec 10, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} you do realize that's like a 3 year forecast right? Lots of ups and down between then.
and tons of blown accounts
As Above, So Below
  • #53,184
  • Dec 10, 2014 10:23pm Dec 10, 2014 10:23pm
had a buy limit waiting at 117.5 which opened up , looks like potential bottem imo, if it turns out not to be then it shouldnt have that much more down to go (116.9, 116.05, 115.6)

Fomc should give us new highs next week....
  • #53,185
  • Dec 10, 2014 11:12pm Dec 10, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Hey String, You trade Elliot wave theory right? I am not familiar with it. If the wave 5 chose to over extend, is there an average it usually overextends? Does that make sense?
Sunsilk,
Apologies for the late reply. I was AFK since i do not trade the retracements, i purposely stayed away from keyboard, coz i sometimes have itchy fingers
From the start of UJ's descend, all the waves have been just normal. Elliot says that one wave among all 5 will most probably extend, so in this case there is a high probability for 5th wave to extend as no other waves extended. The most likely target of an extended fifth wave is 100 % when you draw a fib expansion from start of wave 1 to end of wave 3 and then expand it to wave 4 ( chart below will explain better) sometimes it can extend to 161.8% as well, so you never can tell with wave 5. you just have to count the internal waves of the major 5th wave to be clear. Here is a chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ wave 5 ext.JPG Size: 146 KB
STING
  • #53,186
  • Dec 10, 2014 11:27pm Dec 10, 2014 11:27pm
Nice. Can't helped with my itchy fingers. Lol should've stayed away

Quoting stringfx
{quote} Sunsilk, Apologies for the late reply. I was AFK since i do not trade the retracements, i purposely stayed away from keyboard, coz i sometimes have itchy fingers From the start of UJ's descend, all the waves have been just normal. Elliot says that one wave among all 5 will most probably extend, so in this case there is a high probability for 5th wave to extend as no other waves extended. The most likely target of an extended fifth wave is 100 % when you draw a fib expansion from start of wave 1 to end of wave 3 and then expand...
  • #53,187
  • Dec 11, 2014 12:26am Dec 11, 2014 12:26am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} you do realize that's like a 3 year forecast right? Lots of ups and down between then.
Yeah, of course.

Can still trade against macro trends, like the current macro-based runup to 122 doesn't necessarily preclude catching 400+ pips back down.
  • #53,188
  • Dec 11, 2014 12:39am Dec 11, 2014 12:39am
NZD is just sick nasty. LOL...

Making my entire week on this pair
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #53,189
  • Dec 11, 2014 12:46am Dec 11, 2014 12:46am
Quoting smash1820
NZD is just sick nasty. LOL... Making my entire week on this pair
Gidday Smash

Keep eye on EUR/NZ

Its getting nice low again,caught 1.62

down at 1.58ish
  • #53,190
  • Dec 11, 2014 12:49am Dec 11, 2014 12:49am
Currently UJ,GJ,EJ,AJ all show same on the 1h,, stuck between a narrowing channel of the 5ma and 20ma,,, the decision will be soon, only NJ has broken out higher in a conclusive way.
  • #53,191
  • Dec 11, 2014 12:52am Dec 11, 2014 12:52am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday Smash Keep eye on EUR/NZ Its getting nice low again,caught 1.62 down at 1.58ish
Nice. Good luck to you bro. Also look at GBP/NZD if you want to short. GBP is a bit stronger than EUR, so it's probably a better trade imo. But they would both work well, as long as you get the entry right.

Not sure right now is the best place to get in the trade though...'

EDIT: Re-reading this statement, it seems I might have said it backwards. You are correct. Go with EUR instead of GBP. NZD is strong so you want to short it against a weak pair...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #53,192
  • Dec 11, 2014 1:16am Dec 11, 2014 1:16am
Quoting Liam0530
had a buy limit waiting at 117.5 which opened up , looks like potential bottem imo, if it turns out not to be then it shouldnt have that much more down to go (116.9, 116.05, 115.6) Fomc should give us new highs next week....
Why would you say FOMC would give us a new high? Other than NFP, most of the economic indicators have been weak for US. NFP printed higher number because a lot of temp hiring was done to accommodate the shortage of staff during the holiday season shopping, so that is not a figure we can base our assumptions. US index have shrunk a lot in the past few days, so IMO FOMC would declare that dollar is weakening and i suppose that should be enough for traders worldwide to sell the dollar again, in which case UJ will go down again. The next possible mid term support visible is 113.70 to 114.15.
Anyway there are bulls and there are bears. Just saying to keep an open mind and go with the direction of the trend.

I am not sure myself if this is a bearish trend myself but i have seen a 1 HR EW cycle complete with a bear trend, so i am expecting more to come and trying to reason with fundamentals as well. Please take this as a query only
STING
  • #53,193
  • Dec 11, 2014 1:59am Dec 11, 2014 1:59am
Quoting DailyChart
week ago i posted this chart formation and I think its almost valid {image}
I agree,I have marked the same canal on my chart for uj, considering the bull move this is a normal pull and it's got room for even more.
However, still it is a 400 pips bear move, rather strongly, that should not be taken lightly IMHO.
  • #53,194
  • Dec 11, 2014 2:47am Dec 11, 2014 2:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_H1,,.gif Size: 133 KB
  • #53,195
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:31am Dec 11, 2014 3:31am
looking to long here. LH and broke my R area any takes?
  • #53,196
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:39am Dec 11, 2014 3:39am
Quoting mk5
looking to long here. LH and broke my R area any takes?
i took , but dont know correct tp

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11des.png Size: 125 KB
  • #53,197
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:41am Dec 11, 2014 3:41am
Same here. My tp at 118.70 area I have a tighter stops at 118.25

Quoting jasakreatif
{quote} i took , but dont know correct tp {image}
  • #53,198
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:56am Dec 11, 2014 3:56am
Short @ 118.50 tp 117.30
Never follow/blame others,Patience is the key skill for Succesfull trading.
  • #53,199
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:05am Dec 11, 2014 4:05am
Quoting sgkrishn
Short @ 118.50 tp 117.30
are you sure?? i see 119.30 end of this day
  • #53,200
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:07am Dec 11, 2014 4:07am
Quoting sgkrishn
Short @ 118.50 tp 117.30
Strongly agree
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