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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #52,921
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:16pm Dec 9, 2014 12:16pm
question. Finally, if we ABC correction waves 4 and another 5? if ABC - Finally, we go to 121 121 50
  • #52,922
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:18pm Dec 9, 2014 12:18pm
I'll ask here, only because this is related to trading UJ, but where/when did people 'switch' and see this being a retrace to trade (or potentially a reversal?).

I've come to learn that I have a natural bull bias and once I am in long, I can't seem to 'see' the bear trade happening...but only view it as a bull retrace, retrace, pullback...oh no, I should have sold? Why didn't I?

I use ichimoku and thus should have an easy indicator of when to switch to sell mode, but I haven't been able to decide which TF to 'trust' and help me make a firm decision when to switch sides.

Anyone feel like reviewing this last big move down and give an indication about where they started to really see the bull fade and the bear rise up?
  • #52,923
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:34pm Dec 9, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Rizmeister
Sorry I am not upset nor mad. I have netted far more than 60 pips today. Just figured someone should tell you to add something more than images...maybe explanations or plans. Your risk vs reward and the probabilities of your setups...maybe how tight your stop losses...something other than an image. TO BE HONEST I couldn't care less either way. Have a nice day sir
now thats more like it instead of mouthing off and calling names...
This is a discussion thread and not a system forum that i should explain what i do... it's a unique time in UJ with good volatility which calls for some quick scalping and that's what i was doing posting it live.
if you had ask nicely of course I would have explain.. the picture speaks for itself.. it's buying the dips for small gain with tight stop and TS. no one asked anything.

anyways no worries, it's all good.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #52,924
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:35pm Dec 9, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting Nefser
I'll ask here, only because this is related to trading UJ, but where/when did people 'switch' and see this being a retrace to trade (or potentially a reversal?). I've come to learn that I have a natural bull bias and once I am in long, I can't seem to 'see' the bear trade happening...but only view it as a bull retrace, retrace, pullback...oh no, I should have sold? Why didn't I? I use ichimoku and thus should have an easy indicator of when to switch to sell mode, but I haven't been able to decide which TF to 'trust' and help me make a firm decision...
To me, that area up there at ~ 121.8 was a poor place to buy in terms of R/R, so wasn't going to buy up there - as I would say many others wouldn't have.

Liam0530 mentioned that USD/JPY selling may continue into the Asian session, which I found interesting.

During the Asian session, the pair was looking extremely overcrowded to me. The pair was climbing rapidly for no justifiable reason, despite this strong trend ( at least to me).

In terms of first physically noticing a fade, it's when that Japanese data came out towards end of the Asian session, that I was quite surprised. This seems to be where the selling was initiated. I personally wasn't going to enter the market with this data looming.

Another thing that I was/am concerned about is USD/GBP's trend. It effectively hasn't really progressed for a month or so.

Just some random notes.

Cheers
  • #52,925
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:39pm Dec 9, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting Nefser
No need to throw your toys out of your pram. Yes, it's an open forum, so it was ok to comment on Riz's post, yes? And about yours, yes? You only posted images suggesting you'd grabbed some pips from point A to point B. Ok, but why? How did you judge your timings? Was there something you did to assess the earlier candles, or the current one? How could we emulate the same thing? I'm very happy to learn how to scalp...but you only seemed to be posting chart snapshots of trades, with one or two trades gained.
go to my scalper thread where i have presented various versions of scalping if your really interested as you stated.
The reason i did not elaborate much bcz i was busy actually executing trades, its fast pace, and the image itself explains a lot when you see the series of them.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #52,926
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:01pm Dec 9, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting Dano12
question. Finally, if we ABC correction waves 4 and another 5? if ABC - Finally, we go to 121 121 50
Hi Dano,

(this info is purely based on a subjective topic called EW or elliot wave theory)

I have been providing the chart of Us dollar Index (dollar strength against any currency). WE have noticed a big bull run on dollar from 4th of may 2014 which has destroyed most of the other pairs related to dollar and also the fundamentals of other currencies have not been the best.

According to EW on weekly Us dollar Index, a reversal was due and here are the reasons:
1) we have clearly seen 5 waves from may 4th. (check chart provided. Fractals define wave and also fibonacci)
2) wave 5 normal target is 61.8 of the entire move from wave 1 to 3. WE have achieved that as well.
Since we have seen these 2 factors, on a purely technical point of view, a reversal was expected unless the 5th wave extended further than 61.8. (the possibility of this was less as we already have an good extension on wave 3 which has gone beyond 161.8% of wave 1.)


Now if US index is having a reversal, then obviously, all related pairs also will have reversals. In which case we can expect a trend to develop which can last for several weeks. so there will be retracements but i feel that generally this reversal will keep the trend of UJ down. I will only be looking for sell signals unless UJ goes and breaks the top in which case the bull run on US dollar is not yet over.

Nefser,

Most indicators lag so you cannot time your entries when trend changes unless a lot of pips have gone against you, you will not realize the trend change. If you use fibonacci ratios along with fractals and have a general understanding of the wave theory, you can probably forecast trend changes with minimum slippage.

My Us index weekly charts :
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US index weekly 1.JPG Size: 157 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: us dollar weekly 2.JPG Size: 129 KB
STING
  • #52,927
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:05pm Dec 9, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} go to my scalper thread where i have presented various versions of scalping if your really interested as you stated. The reason i did not elaborate much bcz i was busy actually executing trades, its fast pace, and the image itself explains a lot when you see the series of them.
Ok, the posts 52,901 and 52,902 are 30 minutes apart. From the initial trade, I don't know why you didn't hold it. The next few candles gave no real indication the were dropping significantly, yet a few candles later, you shorted, then close it quickly for a loss.

Therefore, you are willing to accept a small loss in these trades, so why were you not willing to hold the trade from 52, 901 for longer?

I don't understand why you are 'scalping' these trades...rather than take slightly larger chunks out. If it's just "the way you trade", then I guess that's all there is to say.
  • #52,928
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:11pm Dec 9, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting Nefser
{quote} Ok, the posts 52,901 and 52,902 are 30 minutes apart. From the initial trade, I don't know why you didn't hold it. The next few candles gave no real indication the were dropping significantly, yet a few candles later, you shorted, then close it quickly for a loss. Therefore, you are willing to accept a small loss in these trades, so why were you not willing to hold the trade from 52, 901 for longer? I don't understand why you are 'scalping' these trades...rather than take slightly larger chunks out. If it's just "the way you trade", then...

you surely lack the understanding of quick scalp. I am not in it to catch the whole load.. I am in it for just quick clean winners for a multiple time when PA is moving fast, its a repetition. in less than hour made 66 pips... If i hold one it may give me 600, it may turn for a loss it may give me nothing etc,... I don't bet on what it may do or not.. I scalp, I create my own sum.. that is why is called scalp.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #52,929
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:16pm Dec 9, 2014 1:16pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #52,930
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:24pm Dec 9, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} you surely lack the understanding of quick scalp. I am not in it to catch the whole load.. I am in it for just quick clean winners for a multiple time when PA is moving fast, its a repetition. in less than hour made 66 pips... If i hold one it may give me 600, it may turn for a loss it may give me nothing etc,... I don't bet on what it may do or not.. I scalp, I create my own sum.. that is why is called scalp.
Ok, so it's are you saying only candle to candle? Right.

So, in post 52,900. You don't take the short scalp that looks possible between your first and second trades. You don't scalp for the two blue candles after your second trade. You don't short the second to last and last candle. Why?

Why did you take the trades you did, vs the ones that didn't seem to look right?


Yes, you might have grabbed 60 overall, but you just ignore the fact that there was probably another 60-120 available to you just by scalping a little bit more (double or triple your result), but you couldn't "be bothered" to take them? I don't know...not sure it makes sense to me.


Edit: FSEmpire - I will take a look at your other thread and see what you've posted there. Maybe it will help give me insight about how/why you take the trades you do and you won't need to repeat anything here (and slightly derail this thread).
  • #52,931
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:26pm Dec 9, 2014 1:26pm
next week with fomc we will have new highs.. This sell off makes me think they might have surprises for us

Not to mention japans elections also.. Lets see what retail sales did for nov (most importantly black friday)

Overall, Imo if you havent gotten in long yet. You still can catch the train .. Choochoo
  • #52,932
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:40pm Dec 9, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Hi Dano, (this info is purely based on a subjective topic called EW or elliot wave theory) I have been providing the chart of Us dollar Index (dollar strength against any currency). WE have noticed a big bull run on dollar from 4th of may 2014 which has destroyed most of the other pairs related to dollar and also the fundamentals of other currencies have not been the best. According to EW on weekly Us dollar Index, a reversal was due and here are the reasons: 1) we have clearly seen 5 waves from may 4th. (check chart provided. Fractals define...

look toward the indexes, SP500 and the Nikkei, USD JPY RISK RISK OFF ON
we have the end of the year, so after this correction, and before the Fed and the EU - EUR printing - printing JPY

USD should continue to grow stronger for January
  • #52,933
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:42pm Dec 9, 2014 1:42pm
gold is also on high rise.
  • #52,934
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:08pm Dec 9, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting Nefser
{quote} Ok, so it's are you saying only candle to candle? Right. So, in post 52,900. You don't take the short scalp that looks possible between your first and second trades. You don't scalp for the two blue candles after your second trade. You don't short the second to last and last candle. Why? Why did you take the trades you did, vs the ones that didn't seem to look right? Yes, you might have grabbed 60 overall, but you just ignore the fact that there was probably another 60-120 available to you just by scalping a little bit more (double or triple...
i can tell you this: most of the time i do scalp and the way i do is a little different than others. the scalping is basically disbelieve in certainty and synchronization with the rhythm of the price. scalper has no idea where exactly price will be, rather they only feel the "move" and swim in the direction of the flow. i do not think anybody can explain you exactly why scalper took that trade or did not take the other trade. it is difficult to explain the thought train and emotional condition of a scalper while he is taking a trading decision. this does not have to do only with specific setups. there is more to it, as they call it the "gut feeling" which of course come only with experience and lots of screening time.
as i said, people scalp because they consider market random to a large extent and nothing guaranteed. therefore you take what market gives you all along your trades. scalping is about grabbing every single pip market offers and being grateful for it.
As Above, So Below
  • #52,935
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:16pm Dec 9, 2014 2:16pm
Time for random rerun Japanese headline to send USDJPY surging
  • #52,936
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:18pm Dec 9, 2014 2:18pm
go 120
  • #52,937
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:19pm Dec 9, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Dano12
Time for random rerun Japanese headline to send USDJPY surging
Haha! I would love to see a new high! 123.x
  • #52,938
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:29pm Dec 9, 2014 2:29pm
Hi - low 280 pips range, not bad

Congrats to those shorts
  • #52,939
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:35pm Dec 9, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting Dano12
{image}
nice chart..is it possible for you to share your green red zigzag indicator ...it is really clearly showing up dn and retrace.thanks in advance
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #52,940
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:37pm Dec 9, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Haha! I would love to see a new high! 123.x
Resistance


USD JPY = SP500
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_H1,,.gif Size: 158 KB
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