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  • #941,941
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:41pm Dec 8, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting iwishtowin
I think this is ideal time to sell EURUSD because now when it will start falling, it will not stop at anything.
And what is your shred of evidence?
  • #941,942
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:42pm Dec 8, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting mond33
{quote} exactly! {image}
Good luck with that wild ass guess.
  • #941,943
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:43pm Dec 8, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting mond33
{quote} exactly! {image}
uj has a similar perspective..can anyone say deflation? on world, less so on u.s, gb.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,944
  • Edited 3:42pm Dec 8, 2014 1:48pm | Edited 3:42pm
Quoting pedro319
I like 1.2339 and 1.2357 for shorts. The first is where price is going next.
Closed longs from 1.23 and opened shorts risking very little at the top. If price takes out the highs H1 will look into the second level to short.
ABCD H4 still in play.
Trading plan here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post7926602
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #941,945
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:51pm Dec 8, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting rehorst
{quote} And what is your shred of evidence?
umm maybe the fact that the overlying downtrend we've been in for the last few months has yet to be broken? Or even hinted at being broken. Only reason for going long is if your trying to take on extreme risk and time the bottom off of a technical level. Totally in disregard for the fundamental factors at play here. Just because you can draw a line between 3 points doesn't mean the market is just going to stop and do a 180 at your "special line". Please give me 1 GOOD reason why anyone should be long the euro besides trying to time/catch a bounce they have no clue is even going to happen? The FACTS are the US and EU monetary policies are going in opposite directions. You can't bet against a central bank that controls the money...you will lose. Just look at what happened in Japan.
  • #941,946
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:59pm Dec 8, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} umm maybe the fact that the overlying downtrend we've been in for the last few months has yet to be broken? Or even hinted at being broken. Only reason for going long is if your trying to take on extreme risk and time the bottom off of a technical level. Totally in disregard for the fundamental factors at play here. Just because you can draw a line between 3 points doesn't mean the market is just going to stop and do a 180 at your "special line". Please give me 1 GOOD reason why anyone should be long the euro besides trying to time/catch...
That's more like it, Thegmann. You provided your reasoning.
  • #941,947
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:01pm Dec 8, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote}
You can't bet against a central bank that controls the money...you will lose. Just look at what happened in Japan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros
few and far between.. thats why yen watching is a hobby
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,948
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:09pm Dec 8, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 12/4 h closed below and 1h above, it never made 2362.. so i am still on the side. i may sit this out till 2480 attempt.
another h close above
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,949
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:14pm Dec 8, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros few and far between.. thats why yen watching is a hobby
The trend is your friend. Don't bet against a government/central bank that wants a lower currency value .

Was expecting a retests of at least 1.236 1.238 but if this h4 closes the way it is right now 1.234 might be all we get :/.
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  • #941,950
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:45pm Dec 8, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} The trend is your friend. Don't bet against a government/central bank that wants a lower currency value . Was expecting a retests of at least 1.236 1.238 but if this h4 closes the way it is right now 1.234 might be all we get :/. {image}

i wouldnt underestimate gatorinla.... and even if he is not right dont forget we are in december.... very very very strange month....
  • #941,951
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:55pm Dec 8, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} The trend is your friend. Don't bet against a government/central bank that wants a lower currency value . Was expecting a retests of at least 1.236 1.238 but if this h4 closes the way it is right now 1.234 might be all we get :/. {image}
trends are friends. there are many trends, including retraces. to blindly think a direction alone is the trend, is ignoring other trends. its why so many got burned at 3993.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,952
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:01pm Dec 8, 2014 3:01pm
In this situation the best way is to stay away from the market with all the noise today.
  • #941,953
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:03pm Dec 8, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
i missed the boat on loading shorts. my possible chance may be approaching. time will tell. it has made a new LL 2260. chart is 2125 path.. 2257 um, 2243 mid, 4229 Lm clearly on eu chart.. 2184 is not, but part {image}
other trends before after, more trends then i will ever see.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1418026304
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,954
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:06pm Dec 8, 2014 3:06pm
Check out the COT Report the Non Commercial numbers which are the big institutional holders for the EURO FX

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

More shorts than longs
  • #941,955
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:08pm Dec 8, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} i wouldnt underestimate gatorinla.... and even if he is not right dont forget we are in december.... very very very strange month....
Im not underestimating him? He sent a link to soros who bet on the FUNDAMENTALS of the yen? How is that going against anything I said, US and EU diverging this is happening at a point where we are coming up to an important monthly trendline. Throwing longs up without any proof that we are in fact respecting the line is gambling. Fundamentally the US and EU are diverging... I have been short for a long time and still see no reason to load longs, haven't and won't until I can be even slightly convinced on a time frame higher than 1hr. I personally don't try and catch the pullbacks I only sell at the top much better r/r. Until that top is broken and price is sustained above it for a significant amount of time I will continue to do so...No I am not placing any orders until at least we retest 1.236-38 and a clear 4hr rejection candle forms. Until then I will happily hold my shorts. If we break above 1.238-1.24 and close above there I will gladly close my shorts or let myself get stopped out at my stop of 1.245 no sweat off my back and wait and see. If we never retouch 1.24-45 then even better. I will continue shorting on continued retest of the long term downward trend line.
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  • #941,956
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:11pm Dec 8, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Im not underestimating him? He sent a link to soros who bet on the FUNDAMENTALS of the yen? How is that going against anything I said, US and EU diverging this is happening at a point where we are coming up to a important monthly trendline. Throwing longs up without any proof that we are in fact respecting the line is gambling. Fundamentally the US and EU are diverging... I have been short for a long time and still see no reason to load longs, haven't and won't until I can be even slightly convinced on a time frame higher than 1hr. I personally...

to his merit he didnt mention anything about longing (from what i have noticed lately) ... do i agree with him...well personally i am only shorting at this stage

but on the other hand longing or shorting is all about personal choices .... many times i wish i had longed after seeing where the price have gone... but on the other hand for me its the risk that i am not willing to take... others can take ... i -at this stage- cant
  • #941,957
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:47pm Dec 8, 2014 3:47pm
If 4hr closes the way its looking like it will I will be going short on a the next break of 1.23, target 1.21.
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  • #941,958
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:47pm Dec 8, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Im not underestimating him? He sent a link to soros who bet on the FUNDAMENTALS of the yen? How is that going against anything I said, US and EU diverging this is happening at a point where we are coming up to an important monthly trendline. Throwing longs up without any proof that we are in fact respecting the line is gambling. Fundamentally the US and EU are diverging... I have been short for a long time and still see no reason to load longs, haven't and won't until I can be even slightly convinced on a time frame higher than...
[/font]
i was commenting on the yen only (i quoted yen portion only). just like techs, an individual picks and chooses what techs he is using. fundamentals are not solely what a c bank is doing. when one picks the c bank part and ignores the rest, he is not getting a full picture. case in point was Soros. he ignored the banks, and bet on a fundamental flaw opposite of what most thought as not wise in real time. to bet solely on the boj, and not acknowledge the debt to gdp as well as energy is an omission of other fundamentals. as is not allowing for a retrace on tech reasons. there is no black or white answers.
c banks act when there is a problem,
japan is broke., but most of the world cant afford them to be bankrupt.

anyone have the high and low for October 2, 2008? and October 3, 2008 and October 4, 2008
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,959
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:48pm Dec 8, 2014 3:48pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
In light of the ugly looking 4HR reversal candle I'm considering closing my short term, small positioned, small target, risky, counter trend trade & seeking short entry with 1st & 2nd targets at the 127 & 141 FIB Extensions at .2185 & .2160 respectively.... I know counter trend trades create a shit storm here so please spare me the rhetoric. Thanks

EDIT may hold out for the Asia fade move & maximize profit... there's no need getting hasty.
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  • #941,960
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:49pm Dec 8, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}[/font] i was commenting on the yen only (i quoted yen portion only). just like techs, an individual picks and chooses what techs he is using. fundamentals are not solely what a c bank is doing. when one picks the c bank part and ignores the rest, he is not getting a full picture. case in point was Soros. he ignored the banks, and bet on a fundamental flaw opposite of what most thought as not wise in real time. to bet solely on the boj, and not acknowledge the debt to gdp as well as energy is an omission of other fundamentals. as is not allowing...
Which pair?
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