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EURUSD

  • #941,741
  • Dec 7, 2014 2:40pm Dec 7, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} closed the week strong bear, its early week. last weeks close may still give 2362.8/67 ish.. 100+ pips below 2467/2480 norm.. no way to know if it will attempt,, pre nfp close was 2362, same as the weeks pmc at 2462.... its weird Fridays close gives 2362 the spotlight twice as a pmc anf the close pre nfp.. another bear close indicates selling spikes is a better r/r.. 3 times if u use 2363 mid of the high/low late last week.
Hey Gator

Looking @ yearly candles, this ones a whopper, candles like this years haven't been seen since pre 2008 in fact they were the norm pre 2008, since then every candle has a leg, this baby right now has no leg, 8th of Dec dosnt leave much time for a pull back, as you know I am a super bear on this trollop, but I have been closing my longer term shorts over the last 2 months (even runners)
There has been very little over this period to even consider a short i am more keen to temporarily swap camps and catch a bounce
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  • #941,742
  • Dec 7, 2014 2:50pm Dec 7, 2014 2:50pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Really interested whats going to happen at this level
  • #941,743
  • Dec 7, 2014 2:53pm Dec 7, 2014 2:53pm
EURUSD
Harmonic view
I am looking at 1.2190 to close in profit and scalp long, this level is confluence of several harmonic patterns completion H4, D1 and Monthly .618 minor Extension, R:R is very good, as usual we want to see some sort of rejection (stops below) and because it's against the main trend my plan is to scale in small and add after first retracement down that doesn't take the lows obviously. If price takes out the extensions then we would be looking at 1.21 MS3, in that case this plan becomes invalid as I don't intend to chase price.
I have ABCD H4 1.618 sligthly below WS1 and MS2 and same thing on D1 as you can see on the charts below.
Once price reaches this area I will switch to H1 and check confluence Fibonacci + Daily pivots, same method as per last short position, you can even use 15 mins chart and H4 pivots which results in smaller stops and less risk.
The red circle is the invalidation point for ABCD H4 and taking out those highs before reaching targets down would look very suspicious according to logical market mechanics.
I am adding a H1 chart with possible move in which the WPP is tested before move down, in this case I will add short positions with very small stops. My level of choice is 1.2357 WPP + .447 Ret H1, there might be other possibilities.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4 ABCD.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD D1.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurh1.png Size: 47 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #941,744
  • Dec 7, 2014 2:57pm Dec 7, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting chimex
I am currently looking for a motive wave towards 1.2606 maybe higher to confirm the eventuality of 1.2984 after correction cheers..
You may get the 1.26 next dec 11th, only if those events will combine together in one day "TLTROs positive results, us goverment shut down, snb cut rate so chf Is no longer to be save haven.. And most importantly ECB dovish scum speakers to keep their mouths shut for at least one week
  • #941,745
  • Dec 7, 2014 3:01pm Dec 7, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting mond33
{quote} I agree, but it's early to talk about these levels..
within the next 2 days we should see where it trades.
  • #941,746
  • Dec 7, 2014 3:41pm Dec 7, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} Hey Gator Looking @ yearly candles, this ones a whopper, candles like this years haven't been seen since pre 2008 in fact they were the norm pre 2008, since then every candle has a leg, this baby right now has no leg, 8th of Dec dosnt leave much time for a pull back, as you know I am a super bear on this trollop, but I have been closing my longer term shorts over the last 2 months (even runners) There has been very little over this period to even consider a short i am more keen to temporarily swap camps and catch a bounce
when dragis goes to .25% rate.. and the fed 4%+.. it still will suck for ecb (all heavy industrial countries ) because its members will still pay more for energy comparably. its just the way it is.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,747
  • Dec 7, 2014 3:46pm Dec 7, 2014 3:46pm
Anyone shorting ej?
  • #941,748
  • Dec 7, 2014 3:48pm Dec 7, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting mond33
{quote} You may get the 1.26 next dec 11th, only if those events will combine together in one day "TLTROs positive results, us goverment shut down, snb cut rate so chf Is no longer to be save haven.. And most importantly ECB dovish scum speakers to keep their mouths shut for at least one week
sounds a little biased,, when in Rome, eat whats served. dont try to tell Rome what to eat. You cant afford it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #941,749
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:18pm Dec 7, 2014 4:18pm
When dollar index breaks this blue trendline the the cycle from 1.40 in the EURUSD will be over http://gyazo.com/403c7a9e1328d66d2fd254dcf1c8701d
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #941,750
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:19pm Dec 7, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting Sants
Anyone shorting ej?
Yea i am, but not too happy about it yen easing looks stronger than the euro weakness
Ill have to figure a way to hedge the yen risk
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #941,751
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:23pm Dec 7, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Yea i am, but not too happy about it yen easing looks stronger than the euro weakness Ill have to figure a way to hedge the yen risk
I notice on friday when the nfp came out surprisingly, eu dirrct down, but ej is not even touch lower. Its printed higher ans higher till 149.4x. Looks like eu cash moved to ej?people sell eur buy us but buy another eur by sold jpy?
  • #941,752
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:26pm Dec 7, 2014 4:26pm
hmmm...decent rejection off 1.23....may throw up a risky sell limit there...seems its become a nice little resistance zone.
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  • #941,753
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:27pm Dec 7, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} I notice on friday when the nfp came out surprisingly, eu dirrct down, but ej is not even touch lower. Its printed higher ans higher till 149.4x. Looks like eu cash moved to ej?people sell eur buy us but buy another eur by sold jpy?
No its not so much about the euro ...
When NFP came out immediate you see all risk pairs like eurusd gbpusd and audusd nzdusd they all fall on dollar strength but risk pairs themselves did not fall much if u look at eurx Problem with the yen pairs is then the yen weakness is driving everything agains the yen stronger.... Japan is still easing

Ps. Meant to write back to you but had a busy weekend, will write back as soon as i get back to office
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #941,754
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:41pm Dec 7, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} No its not so much about the euro ... When NFP came out immediate you see all risk pairs like eurusd gbpusd and audusd nzdusd they all fall on dollar strength but risk pairs themselves did not fall much if u look at eurx Problem with the yen pairs is then the yen weakness is driving everything agains the yen stronger.... Japan is still easing Ps. Meant to write back to you but had a busy weekend, will write back as soon as i get back to office
let us hope eu does the qe asap, cashflow supposed to be much much bigger than jpy qe, drop on ej. Anw, before that time, can I safely assume ej will continue up? Me shorting ej as well.waiting for your reply. Posting a thread with phone, no idea how to enter the next line of typing lmao:|
  • #941,755
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:47pm Dec 7, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} let us hope eu does the qe asap, cashflow supposed to be much much bigger than jpy qe, drop on ej. Anw, before that time, can I safely assume ej will continue up? Me shorting ej as well.waiting for your reply. Posting a thread with phone, no idea how to enter the next line of typing lmao:|
Yes the eurjpy is likely going to go up, may touch 152
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #941,756
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:48pm Dec 7, 2014 4:48pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Yea i am, but not too happy about it yen easing looks stronger than the euro weakness Ill have to figure a way to hedge the yen risk
not a big fan of hedging, but watching Kiwi(exotic) and Aussie(Haven) as they are very closely linked to yen they will gives signs on time if not slightly early, both are being hunted by sellers, looking @ daily charts, they are both @ support, so any drop should be violent albeit same for pop, long would be anti trend with associated risk, shorting is selling support with associated risk, either way any movement will be closely corelated to yen, hedging by watching only, much much cheaper
any attempt at buying would be medium term - long term trade plan bottom picking, killed most times but when they pay off they pay off big:nerd:
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  • #941,757
  • Dec 7, 2014 5:01pm Dec 7, 2014 5:01pm
EURJPY medterm first target 166 then long term 186
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #941,758
  • Dec 7, 2014 5:37pm Dec 7, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Yes the eurjpy is likely going to go up, may touch 152
looks like im going to obey your first ground rules in forex: dont fight the trend; even for this month only or till eu qe announcement. Cut my short approx -30pips in average lot and switch to long @149.28 till perhaps middle of the month or tp 150 hit
  • #941,759
  • Dec 7, 2014 5:44pm Dec 7, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting LCForex
EURJPY medterm first target 166 then long term 186
I dont think we could breached 155+. Qe is coming, eventhough the news says many things about uncertain ecb for sovereign purchase, anw thats going to happen because the only thing eu must do is qe. No further nego or meeting or anything. Oh I got another way better than qe. Find people outside the eu to open jobs and find people outside the eu to do the jobs, everything about inflation stimulation.If this month inflation data is nearly zero, qe will be in q1 2015
  • #941,760
  • Dec 7, 2014 5:47pm Dec 7, 2014 5:47pm
Top of the morning from London hope everyone has a great trading week!!
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