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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #2,661
  • Dec 5, 2014 1:30pm Dec 5, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} As for this Indy yep I think its good in a range too, because I think its aimed at rangy charts...
I noticed it would just keep producing arrows until price went moved away from the arrow. I changed the TF and then put it back again and all the arrows, except the correct one, went away. I think I might shy away from this indie and trust my own knowledge of PA and the CCI. Do you know what this indie is measuring?
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #2,662
  • Dec 5, 2014 2:41pm Dec 5, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting capstone
{quote} I noticed it would just keep producing arrows until price went moved away from the arrow. I changed the TF and then put it back again and all the arrows, except the correct one, went away. I think I might shy away from this indie and trust my own knowledge of PA and the CCI. Do you know what this indie is measuring?

Nope no idea at the moment but when I get the source code might have a better idea, I've noticed that too but it still seemed ok when used in a strong trender because then it didn't get too many of the pullback type signals so seemed a little better then... But like you I guess theres nothing to match true price action and a little bit of common sense.

Also I don't think we can do much better than our CCI do you?? It shows the waves up beautifully in this mornings strong trender GBPJPY...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cci as reliable as ever in strong trender.png Size: 76 KB


Also added to that these higher timeframe pivot levels etc are really playing out nicely with some great breakouts and break and retest entries. In fact this whole GBPJPY move started with a reversal off of yesterdays low and the S1 level.. Gonna have to keep an eye on these levels obviously a lot of the big boys money is coming to the market around them...

Something else I'm noticing is that when I play around testing entries etc when the markets quiet my strategy is not a lot of good as price just floats about aimlessly. I think we need to adhere to market open times strictly unless you've got one pair trending a lot stronger than all the others eg a strong reading on the TTindy..

Well thats it for another week will post a bit over the weekend about these key levels and how they're playing a big part from now on plus how we might identify a runner very simply from the 1 min and 5 mins on TTindy agreeing like they did today on GBPJPY....

catch you later...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,663
  • Dec 5, 2014 5:54pm Dec 5, 2014 5:54pm
Hi Clive

I've been following in silence and apologies for sounding critical (I'm not in the position to be).

I don't think your system needs another indicator; you're nailing excellent entries without this indicator. I haven't had a good experience with the Super Indicator. It does repaint, but that's not even relevant here. Why do you need it?

You've got your "ins" sorted, you just need to sort your "outs" and how I see it you just need to make a call on one of two and run with it. 1) If you're grabbing runs of 20 pips, you'll be successful. If you decide to go this way, don't look back at what you've left on the table. 2) If you're going for the big runs, you'll be successful. Accept that there will be days where you will walk away with practically nothing, but there will be enough days where you make good returns. If you decide to go this route, take a longer term view, not just a daily view.

I cringe when I see you whinging about a 20 pip day; when you started off this latest journey, would you have scoffed at making a consistent 20 pips every day? It seems like you'll be able to make 20 pips a day without any major sweat. If I can make a consistent 20 pips a day with an average stop-loss of 10 pips, I will be trading full-time within 10 weeks (and I don't have a huge live account) Through hard work and determination you've got something really good; don't doubt yourself, just decide you "outs", stick to it for a couple of weeks and then make a call if you need to make changes.

I'm trading your method at times when all the good moves have mostly happened, but if I cut out my one bad entry a day, I will be successful with your method as well. As soon as I get consistency, I'll start posting charts as well.

Cheers,

Kobie
  • #2,664
  • Dec 5, 2014 9:57pm Dec 5, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Morning Mr V I see GBPJPY has been running this morning?? Have you caught any of it?? I certainly haven't so whats all that about??? Perfect top trender on 1 min and 5 min gone nearly 200 pips this morning yet haven't caught a bean??? what the hells going on here???? Lets have a chat about it sometime soon I'm starting to despair over it all.... Anyway on another subject altogether., your pivot indy... I see theres quite a few pivot indys on your first post which would you recommend for trading around on these 1 minute charts? What time...
Its 5.37am here, been up for 2 hours already. Mrs V and I watched the latest episode of the Walking Dead after the satellite was installed yesterday. For the next couple of hours we are taking off the previous owners curtain rails etc etc (we prefer blinds) unpacking boxes (how many books and dvd's can a person collect). Now you have had the important news from our side.

Clive a little homework for your weekend. Put the 6 charts up gbpnzd, gbpjpy and gbpaud and of course the eur pairs. The only thing you cannot have is the TT indi but the lwma visible angle should give a good idea. Now what pairs had system trades first, what pairs were system 100%? What pairs were agreeing eg gbp strong across the board, or jpy weak gj and ej?

Were you perhaps distracted by the new indi that (no surprise here) added nothing as it looks like its a classic repainting waste of time. You have been strict on keeping out the diversions. First question to anyone giving something new is have you done your homework to show its better.

Clive your system works FULL STOP. Pivots work, strong/weak pairs agreeing works, LO US open works. If we are going to tweak it with ha renko 3 brick candles so be it. Hopefully I'll be back Monday and from there we focus on method, getting what we want to do in writing.

A dream is a goal with a plan.

As many have said here we're there, now its just implementing.

OK the pivots from 1st post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=108544

Pivots is for D pivots (use mid pivots option) with days open prev days high low.
Pivot points multitimeframe if for the W pivots also use mid pivots option. I use this on my trading charts.
Pivot points weekly has historical pivots so good for back checking but unfortunately doesn't have mid pivots, so I only use when looking back for research.
  • #2,665
  • Dec 6, 2014 5:26am Dec 6, 2014 5:26am
Quoting Kobiet
Hi Clive I've been following in silence and apologies for sounding critical (I'm not in the position to be). I don't think your system needs another indicator; you're nailing excellent entries without this indicator. I haven't had a good experience with the Super Indicator. It does repaint, but that's not even relevant here. Why do you need it? You've got your "ins" sorted, you just need to sort your "outs" and how I see it you just need to make a call on one of two and run with it. 1) If you're grabbing runs of 20 pips, you'll be successful. If...
Hi Kobie

Many thanks for that post I really appreciate you taking time out to post....

Actually you've made me realise this is a good strategy as it is and you're quite right I don't need any more indicators or anything else just need to have the belief and faith in my own system and as you again quite rightly say, theres 2 ways to trade forex, one is to grab each momentum run and the other is to hold for the longer trend. (enter and hold on the 100lwma slope changes)

I must decide which one I'm doing and then accept the results as they are. There will be good days better suited for each system....Interestingly enough though as I type that I realised that grabbing the momentum runs works well on both types of days doesn't it??? Also trading the trend always gives you that mindset of "what am i possibly missing out on" or "what have I left on the table" . Both of those thoughts make it hard to take profit and that at the end of the day is all I'm interested in. Making money. Being right or wrong is irrelevant its just about making money...

I'm also swayed one way or the other by the type of day I've just experienced. if I have a rangy day then I assume the next day will be the same but its invariably not so I grab orphans then feel bad because I've missed out on a strong move or vice versa... Either way I feel like I've failed... Strange when I'm making pips practically everyday.... So the problem lies in my the mindset at the start of the day....

First of all I need to accept that I don't know what type of day lies in front of me but whatever it is I will trade to the best of my ability and just accept the results whatever they are. Some days I will get it spot on and some days I won't simple as that. It doesn't make me a bad trader to have a losing day. I need to take my entries as per normal then make a decision based on the prevailing market conditions at that time, but most importantly I need to accept whatever the outcome is....Win or lose, orphan or runner, just accept I made decisions based on the market conditions I perceived and live with the results...

Feel like I've just summarised "Trading in the zone by Mark Douglas". Its all about the mindset isn't it??? Take the trades as they setup, manage them as you see to fit the prevailing market conditions but most importantly accept the results whatever they are....

Now the bottom line is , can I apply it to my trading????

Thanks for that post Kobie its helped enormously....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,666
  • Dec 6, 2014 5:53am Dec 6, 2014 5:53am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Its 5.37am here, been up for 2 hours already. Mrs V and I watched the latest episode of the Walking Dead after the satellite was installed yesterday. For the next couple of hours we are taking off the previous owners curtain rails etc etc (we prefer blinds) unpacking boxes (how many books and dvd's can a person collect). Now you have had the important news from our side. Clive a little homework for your weekend. Put the 6 charts up gbpnzd, gbpjpy and gbpaud and of course the eur pairs. The only thing you cannot have is the TT indi...

Hi mr V.

Glad it all went well with the move, "Walking Dead"???? Are you sure????

Thanks for your thoughts , I think you're spot on about these distractions, I know guys mean to help but sometimes it distracts from the core strategy here, quite simply to identify strong trenders and enter on the pullbacks against that strong trend identified by our little CCI indy. Simple as that. Nothing more complicated than trading ABCD patterns in a strong trender.....

Lets keep it that simple....

Now as for my homework....:nerd:

Well funnily enough thats exactly what I had planned for my weekend (sad or what????).Mind you I'm not sure whats sadder? Studying Forex or watching Walking Dead episodes?? I'm going to study our top pairs and how they react at market opens, see if I can spot any regular setup that kicks off these runners.. Gonna look at where they start, are they regularly kicking off from these higher timeframe pivot points??? Are they starting with breakouts of the overnight ranges from Asia.?? What time do they generally start??? Like you say is there a general strength or weakness across the board anywhere??? etc etc Just study the LO and NYO characteristics that show themselves time after time...

One other thing I want to touch on when it comes to identifying a runner so then deciding whether to hold or fold??? I think if the 1 min pair is just showing itself in the 1 min TTindy then I will grab orphans , but if it then starts to show up in the 5 min TTindy then look to hold, especially if it builds up one of those breakout levels, now thats a good time to look at a breakout as they tend to shoot off and kickstart the longer trend... So gonna checkout that first consolidation level as the decision area about holding or folding for the day...

Basically I 100% agree with what you're saying we just need to tweak the core strategy rather than rewrite the whole bloody thing every time something new comes along......

Anyway thanks again for all your help i feel we're getting a little closer everyday to the ultimate trading strategy...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,667
  • Dec 6, 2014 6:07am Dec 6, 2014 6:07am
Hi Clive

Somedays our fave pairs run before Frankfurt open, sometimes theres a Frankies half hour reversal, sometimes London open will have a great 70-ish pip move and drift, sometimes it will do nothing until after their news, if London does little then US session comes to the rescue. You never know when each day will give you a move.

Watching Walking Dead is never sad!!
  • #2,668
  • Dec 6, 2014 6:10am Dec 6, 2014 6:10am
What I meant by the previous post was you were unhappy about a 200 pip day and the lack of profits so do a look back at what trade-able pairs looked like and whether there was supporting info eg jpy weak, aud strong etc etc.
  • #2,669
  • Dec 6, 2014 6:19am Dec 6, 2014 6:19am
Quoting Vantage
What I meant by the previous post was you were unhappy about a 200 pip day and the lack of profits so do a look back at what trade-able pairs looked like and whether there was supporting info eg jpy weak, aud strong etc etc.
Yep got that boss

I'm on it!!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,670
  • Dec 6, 2014 6:28am Dec 6, 2014 6:28am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Clive Somedays our fave pairs run before Frankfurt open, sometimes theres a Frankies half hour reversal, sometimes London open will have a great 70-ish pip move and drift, sometimes it will do nothing until after their news, if London does little then US session comes to the rescue. You never know when each day will give you a move. Watching Walking Dead is never sad!!
What I'm hoping to do over the weekend is nail down a good morning analysis routine that will help us identify the Session runners or London breakout trade as its commonly known...

I'll workout how to identify the best ABCD setups to trade and I'll workout how to establish whether its a runner or not then go from there and trade accordingly. Some days we're get it spot on some days we won't simple as that, but I do believe it will be more about the amount of profit we can suck out of the session, the vast majority will be profitable its just a simple matter of how much???

Back to my homework should be ready for marking sometime Sunday evening in preparation for Monday morning. Expecting a good Monday after NFP as the big boys use the week end to decipher the NFP reports then trade accordingly Monday so could see some nice moves Monday setting up the new months trends....

Catch up later...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,671
  • Dec 6, 2014 6:44am Dec 6, 2014 6:44am
Guys

im reading the posts and felt i want to put my comments in

please dont take this in any way to be bad cos to be honest im totally sold with this....its the basic of the market movements..as clive has said simple as abcd.

for me i like things simple and if it makes it easy on the eyes reading price action then great.
2 examples.
1.super indicator...the arrows shows the swing points...i think this is great to identify the points...i know there good...not really notice if they repaint..shame if they do.
if they are useful great.
if they repaint maybe if anyone if able to code/programming....they maybe able to.make them.non repaint?
2.non lag zig zag.......yes ok repaint? Not sure but if a line shows price action by swings to hughlight on the chart great....i guess its a core template and can be removed by individuals personal preference.

ive read the comments etc about break even and runners etc.
personally i think looking into using a kind of trailing stop would be good.
ill try and post a chart picture soon to show.....but having supply demand zones helps in analysing the charts and what i find is price moves away and comes back to retest.
ok this happens more on higher time frames.
this system.is so flexible you coukd scalp or swing trade.
1min tf you.can scalp
Use a 15min timeframe with entry on 1min you could swing trade it.
My thought for a stop is if price retests....it.makes a higher low or a lower high depending on long or short.
lets say its a long.....if we swing trade on a higher timeframe...we enter 1min and monitor.
if your warching the green 100ma you.know pricenisnlong and will pull back.
so stop on higher timeframe will ride those pull backs and my thinking is why not use a step method of trail.stops?
Everytime price makes a higher low you move your stop up to that higher low.step?
Ive looked on the internet and found ea that give 5 or 6 different types of trail stops....so im thinking...you have tje option to scalp or swing trade.
trade the chart and exit on then1 min or let it run.

clive had a good idea a while back with 2 or 3 cci on chart or 2 or 3 ma on chart representing diff timeframes.
when the line up together the market cycle is in sync.
im a believer of cycles andni can honestly see it all comming together with this system.
My first thought were when i found clive and his system.was is the 1min timeframe to small a cycle?
But clive has shown you can make it.work and the flexibility is there to adapt it to your own way.

i really do think maybe the trail.stops could help in letting price run.

i hope this post is clear to understand...im not one to explain easily.

remember plan your trade....trade your plan
  • #2,672
  • Dec 6, 2014 7:55am Dec 6, 2014 7:55am
Hi Jason

Some great ideas there but I think you need to slow it down a bit, maybe just one idea at a time??? I know thats a bit rich coming from me Mr "Lets try this out boys.." but I don't think this thread can suffer two of us....????Do you

Lets keep this simple as simple as ABCD....

All we're doing here is trading strong trending pairs entering on pullbacks... pure and simple and as old as the hills... Lets not over complicate it...

As for the higher timeframe cycles yep thats cool and thats where the 100lwma comes in , to me it represents the 15 min cycles, I use to have a 15 min CCI on the bottom of my charts but once I realised it synchronised with the 100lwma I took it off. If you want to trade the 15 min waves then just take a couple of CCI entries after the 100lwma turns one way or the other...

Anyway no problem with sharing ideas but just keep the basic principle of the strategy in mind..

Lets keep it as simple as ABCD.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,673
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:21am Dec 7, 2014 4:21am
Morning guys

just a little feedback i guess being sought

im running a little laptop so have a small.screen...im guessing some have big screens....and well does it make a difference to how you view the chart?
For some a charr looks good eg big screen for.some looks congested eg small screen? What do you guys think

you.know i been trying a few things out and also applying my own things into this system which is totally.seperate from the group

but a thought having seen it and also past conversation with clive...is it worth having 2 charts open side by side....so split the info.as not.to.over populate 1 chart?
Maybe 1 has the tindy and strength indicator etc and other pure price action as to keep.it clean?

What do you.guys think
  • #2,674
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:04am Dec 8, 2014 1:04am
Morning, whats going on today then??? Wheres our first trade of the day going to come from???? Thats the burning question for us all???

Always find the Monday after NFP quite a busy one as the Big Boys have had the weekend to read the NFP reports and then come to a conclusion is to what it means for the USD. Quite often we see USD trends start of today for the rest of the month for USD , having said that I don't think it was that exciting a NFP day as they go so might be a non event... USD is the strongest daily currency at the moment so lets see what happens...

Attached Image


I use the Daily CSM to give me a clue as to my preferred direction, not that I'm that worried about it but Fridays GBPJPY move was supportted by the JPY weakness as its firmly bottom of my daily CSM.

Lets have a look at our TTindy to see if theres any clues...

Attached Image


Well looks like JPY strength right across the board but when you look at the JPY pairs on the daily charts we've had nothing but JPY weakness for the last couple of months so should we treat this JPY strength with a bit of suspicion this morning??? Or is it time for some profit taking from those soaring daily charts????

Who knows??? Certainly not I??? All I'm going to do is follow the money, lets watch a bit longer but if I see those JPY pairs nose dive then forget the daily charts and go with the flow of today.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,675
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:18am Dec 8, 2014 1:18am
Took this EURJPY trade perfect entry for me top of 1 min TTindy, break and retest of yesterdays close (green line) and its a touch trade off of the 100lwma. 10 pip stop firmly behind some good resistance levels so lets see how it goes???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym1.png Size: 63 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,676
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:20am Dec 8, 2014 1:20am
Bit happier now at BE so it can do whatever it wants now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym1.png Size: 63 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,677
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:30am Dec 8, 2014 1:30am
Nope not playing ball this morning so a quick BE trade there, didn't get much more than half a dozen pips up before it came back so not enough time for me to close it out....

I don't really trust this gap between FO and LO. It regularly reverses the earlier directions as it looks like its about to do with these JPY pairs.. i'm close to calling it a "No trade Zone" as its so unreliable and have a look just after LO see what the resulting trend is after "The Zone"....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym1.png Size: 64 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,678
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:00am Dec 8, 2014 2:00am
A typical "No Trade Zone" TTindy, all over the place with no strength/weakness anywhere just a complete mismatch so will leave well alone until something surfaces as a clear winner...
Attached Image
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,679
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:14am Dec 8, 2014 2:14am
EURJPY weak again so break and retest of this weekly pivot seems a nice place to get in again...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym1.png Size: 58 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,680
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:19am Dec 8, 2014 2:19am
Hmmm out at BE again but looking like the right one just have to be patient and wait my opportunity to rejoin when it pullsback again...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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