USD/JPY Discussion

Thanks for the response

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...fensive-usdjpy

It looks that the small correction has ended today, we are going up and hard to say where we are going to stop.

I do agree that the direction is up. Currently in consolidation mode, but it does look bullish enough, I might be tempted to hold over the weekend, as long as the directional bias remains the same as we approach the day/week end...

Id love to see some strength at the end of the day Even if it slowly gravitates towards the high of the day.

Hey everybody. Good thread here. I would love for it to move back to the hi also since I got in long at 121.62. Not sure if it will make it though. I guess I will hold over the weekend and hope for the best.

I closed my short position with a 12 pip gain. Just not what I thought was going to hapen. Have a good weekend guys!

Have a good weekend

Edit: I carried my trades over see you guys Sunday!!! LETS OPEN GREEN BULLS!!!

Great week for BULLS.

My trades still on.

Great weekend to all

Price retained it's bullish bias all the way up till closing time. Unless something catastrophic happens over the weekend, I expect an open price next week around 121.80-122

Great weekend to all!

I noticed that jump up and hopped in at 121.55

I've received some questions on how I trade, so I thought of posting a chart on current situation with USDJPY. I will not always have time to do this, and I don't claim to be an expert trader. But I'm learning, and I hope this helps anyone else who is just starting their journey to learn forex trading... What I am posting here is not new or proprietary, but just basic principles about price movement.

I usually don't like holding over the weekend. But here's why I'm a little less nervous (note: not comfortable, but less nervous):

First, obviously strong uptrend, and currently on the move up. On H1 chart, note the inside bar and 8 hours of consolidation. Usually, consolidation like this breaks out on in line with the trend. I've also uploaded a 15 minute chart, which also shows bullish bias.

Note both charts show bullish bias, and strong intent to stay above 121.375, which was the last resistance point moving up. When price breaks resistance, and it later becomes support, it is a good indication the move will continue.

However, if you look at H4 chart (not posted here), it is not that convincing, as the last H4 candle is bearish. But H1 and M15 are bullish, so even though last H4 candle is bearish, still simply an inside bar, which statistically should break out with trend.

Is this trade guaranteed to work out? No. For example, suggested SL is pretty tight, and would be less likely to be hit if placed below the last swing low, but I'd probably not chose to ride it out if it breaks out of inside bar downward. Instead, I'd just look to enter long again at a lower price.

Statistical, I believe I and whoever else is long on this pair have an advantage, and should see some gains next week...

Once again, good weekend! And happy trading next week!

Indeed my friend! Consolidated nicely and held its bias is right! Have a great weekend. Good job this week.

I agree, there is no stop for UJ, nice weekend!

It's been fascinating to watch this instrument climb relentlessly with only a few noted 100 pip temporary drawbacks along the journey. Many reasons and rumors will begin to mount by news agencies, and random walk officials.

I have pondered my own. Japan. "Little - America" Phrase I recently coined. As the function of devaluing it's currency and print an excess in tandem in such a hurry is a high speed mimic of what the U.S. did to diminish a chunk of debt on the books, increase commodity prices to increase export gains then The Great Turn-Around "
Hay Were Healed!" since then power drove the dollar back up. Aided closely by modified economic indicator formulation factors aka: "Cookin The Books" quite cleverly.

The shale oil propaganda is adding too much oil to the global consumption table thus prompting Oil sales Dependant Government funded middle eastern region to sell local oil at a market discount!

I do think that Japan itself Has been the puppet strings behind this unusual trading condition. True the country is in financial distress, however this constant upward drive is illogical and un-natural to the conditions of ebb and flow dynamics.

Note the image below as it is a reflection of the biggest U.S. brokers order book. I have followed it daily for several weeks now and noticed that no matter how hot or cool the trading got it swayed within less than a 10% Ratio. i.e. Upper 40's to mid 50"s. Now bear in mind this is just one broker among many that don't disclose however I do think this is an excellent reflection of the positional conditions here in the U.S. spot over the counter trading environment. The retail world has been fortunate to rid the back of an inside job simply just buying this pair and walking away to come back every 24 hour cycle and have sustained very little to no lose with absolute gain relative to what price and and what time they entered. These spot markets are not real at least by the definition of an exchange traded instrument. Rather just on electronic screens imaginary but obligatory financially backed swapping. The related futures contract for the Yen front month walks in unison to spot fluctuation within a small to not too wide pip/tic range. The forward months reflecting maybe a month out will differ even more but not far out unless forward event driven conditions apply. basically what I'm saying here is specific to currency Spot trading. It's not too difficult for inside tiers to throw around phantom money (never delivered) to keep a price in the direction they want. Option barriers and Vanillas help to equalize this internal effect relative to the regular traders: funds, hedges and retail.

It will be interesting to see where the reasonable pull back does occur regardless of a continuation. But as I had implied earlier. The single order book kinda lets the curtain fall from the wizard pulling the levers on going.

Let's Join In Song Fellow Traders and toast these "Free For All Trading Conditions" Before they are a mere memory to the cause.

As we eventually return to the delightful world of trading called "Ebb N Flow"

Good info, but I think this will remain bullish until Christmas. I'm taking profit on half my longs around this time.

Thanks for sharing your method of analysis, much appreciated.

Harrow fellow Grasshoppers


Going easy on trade size

Weary off a YEN retrace looming

End off year trading an profit taking

we would be getting plenty of chances to get back at

lower levels.

Been caught out more than once,over loading the YEN bus

Many traders won't touch this pair as they have lost big time.

Getting in at the top an loading more longs

can only happen for so long,has worked out so far.

But that Greedy little monster keeps clicking buy long.

Now they are talking way higher,140 etc

Wow the way its going,anything is possible.

There was a program CNBC ,they were talking the USD/JPY

retraced 50 cents in one day.Long time ago but it happened:nerd:

Is it more likely to retrace 500 pips,or do we keep on loading up.

This time I want to keep my pip bag full

An go heavy lower from lower levels.