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  • #940,861
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:00am Dec 4, 2014 6:00am
....I guess some people aren't paying attention.

Today's ECB conference can potentially determine the entire short term trend for the next few days. IF the ECB announces QE, the Euro will immediately sink below 1.22 levels.

If it doesn't announce QE, and tries to hold off intervention, it has a very good chance of stimulating a short term bounce up to 1.2400 levels and potentially beyond.

Why the hell people would make assumptions about prices dropping right now to 1.22/1.20 levels without taking the ECB conference into consideration is beyond me. You DO realize the ECB always has the final say in the euro, right? It's called the European Central Bank for a reason. IT'S IN CHARGE OF MAINTAINING THE EURO.

Patterns? Fib? Indicators? They're all secondary compared to the ECB right now.
  • #940,862
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:00am Dec 4, 2014 6:00am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Thanks. But what I meant was, if you look at those charts, you can see a lot of times where PA paused at the mid of the candle. Or more to the point, what would become known as the mid only after the bar closed at the end of the month (or the day, on the hourly chart). Makes one suspect that someone knew in advance where price was going, and took off part at the halfway mark.

EurUsd loves the 50% fib.
  • #940,863
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:03am Dec 4, 2014 6:03am
Quoting Vermillion
....I guess some people aren't paying attention. Today's ECB conference can potentially determine the entire short term trend for the next few days. IF the ECB announces QE, the Euro will immediately sink below 1.22 levels. If it doesn't announce QE, and tries to hold off intervention, it has a very good chance of stimulating a short term bounce up to 1.2400 levels and potentially beyond. Why the hell people would make assumptions about prices dropping right now to 1.22/1.20 levels without taking the ECB conference into consideration is beyond me....
Agreed....haha
  • #940,864
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:09am Dec 4, 2014 6:09am
Quoting Vermillion
....I guess some people aren't paying attention. Today's ECB conference can potentially determine the entire short term trend for the next few days. IF the ECB announces QE, the Euro will immediately sink below 1.22 levels. If it doesn't announce QE, and tries to hold off intervention, it has a very good chance of stimulating a short term bounce up to 1.2400 levels and potentially beyond. Why the hell people would make assumptions about prices dropping right now to 1.22/1.20 levels without taking the ECB conference into consideration is beyond me....
But you do know there is hints and clues left behind on chart even before the news release right. It's always too late to wait for news release only then enter the trade.
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #940,865
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:09am Dec 4, 2014 6:09am
pending shorts at 1.2350 and 1.2380 10 pip tp sl
  • #940,866
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:12am Dec 4, 2014 6:12am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} But you do know there is hints and clues left behind on chart even before the news release right. It's always too late to wait for news release only then enter the trade.
Of course. Currently, most economists and market makers expect Draghi to do nothing (i.e. no QE) and lay it off until next year. That's probably why prices are so low right now; market makers want to drive the prices low and use the ECB conference meeting as astimulus to temporarily drive prices back up, killing retail traders (your average trader) who are shorting right now

Then, around 1.2400 or 1.2500, you'll probably see the bounce slow then, and they'll sell again and continue the downward trend even more.

While I agree with the assessment (Draghi tends to do nothing), I do fear for the scenario if QE IS announced as a surprise, kind of like the Bank of Japana weeks ago giving a surprise QE and killing the yen. We've seen the results of a surprise QE. I'd hate for that to happen.

Edit: There's an intervention I haven't mentioned in the past few posts. Other than QE, there's also corporate bond buying. That has a good chance of occuring, but once again: still not sure about where to enter the market.
  • #940,867
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:16am Dec 4, 2014 6:16am
Quoting Vermillion
....I guess some people aren't paying attention. Today's ECB conference can potentially determine the entire short term trend for the next few days. IF the ECB announces QE, the Euro will immediately sink below 1.22 levels. If it doesn't announce QE, and tries to hold off intervention, it has a very good chance of stimulating a short term bounce up to 1.2400 levels and potentially beyond. Why the hell people would make assumptions about prices dropping right now to 1.22/1.20 levels without taking the ECB conference into consideration is beyond me....
nailed it
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #940,868
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:19am Dec 4, 2014 6:19am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Of course. Currently, most economists and market makers expect Draghi to do nothing (i.e. no QE) and lay it off until next year. That's probably why prices are so low right now; market makers want to drive the prices low and use the ECB conference meeting as astimulus to temporarily drive prices back up, killing retail traders (your average trader) who are shorting right now Then, around 1.2400 or 1.2500, you'll probably see the bounce slow then, and they'll sell again and continue the downward trend even more. While I agree with the assessment...
Could not agree more.
  • #940,869
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:22am Dec 4, 2014 6:22am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Of course. Currently, most economists and market makers expect Draghi to do nothing (i.e. no QE) and lay it off until next year. That's probably why prices are so low right now; market makers want to drive the prices low and use the ECB conference meeting as astimulus to temporarily drive prices back up, killing retail traders (your average trader) who are shorting right now Then, around 1.2400 or 1.2500, you'll probably see the bounce slow then, and they'll sell again and continue the downward trend even more. While I agree with the assessment...
I prefer the latter
While people who is on the short side. There is nth much you can do except just wait.

1st scenario:- you shorted at the very top and aiming much lower target, u can either wait ur profit get crushed or turtle out right now with some profits or miraculously hit ur target within second

2nd scenario:- you shorted at the middle or lower price. Either wait your position turn red, very red or green very green or red green red green.

you choose. Lol
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #940,870
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:27am Dec 4, 2014 6:27am
Inserted Video


intermission show, relax
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #940,871
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:27am Dec 4, 2014 6:27am
The reason why I can't enter the market right now before ECB conference is that I don't know whether the ECB will focus on other forms for intervention like bond purchases, which will likely lower Euro prices, or focus on waiting until TLTRO results in mid-december, which would spike prices up temporarily.

The big banks are also somewhat split on this issue; if both events occur, then I don't have any concrete indications as to where the market would go.
  • #940,872
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:30am Dec 4, 2014 6:30am
Listening to u .......
Inserted Video
Re-Incarnated
  • #940,873
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:31am Dec 4, 2014 6:31am
Even this ecb drive market to a new high. This newly formed strength still requires a lot of testing to reverse this kind of trend. No matter what shorting is better than buying no matter what. That's why I don't encourage day trading. U don't know where it headed. But in long term it's a clear direction.

god may delay but god does not deny
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #940,874
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:32am Dec 4, 2014 6:32am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Because, if you know what the ADR is and you know what the open is, you can assume either that a day's range is going to be split above and below the open, or that it's going to be a straight up or straight down down. And if you have reason to think it's going to be straight up or down, and you see that hesitation at what should be the mid (if it is) then you'd have a kind of confirmation for the day's target
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #940,875
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:33am Dec 4, 2014 6:33am
Dammit draghi! You already know what you going to say.! Why wait an hour later?????
Never let success get to your head because the market will punish you
  • #940,876
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:35am Dec 4, 2014 6:35am
Quoting reggiecjh
Dammit draghi! You already know what you going to say.! Why wait an hour later?????
It seems you are eagerly waiting for Mr. Draghi's speech ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #940,877
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:36am Dec 4, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} Love ur simple analysis
Thank you.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #940,878
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:37am Dec 4, 2014 6:37am
Quoting reggiecjh
Dammit draghi! You already know what you going to say.! Why wait an hour later?????
Naw. We only know the general direction. Draghi will probably be an absolute prick and disguise his key points (QE, bond purchases, GDP expectations, TLTRO antitcipation, etc.) under overtly flowery and verbose sentences.

It's going to be an absolute headache deciphering his true words at the conference.
  • #940,879
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:42am Dec 4, 2014 6:42am
We are upon the Great Wall of Forex! Seven years in the making, the wall is the largest construct in the financial world. It is the only financial instrument that can be seen from space.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is huge. The EURUSD range has been contracting for six years! What will happen? Will we bounce like a helpless rubber ball? Will we bust through and sink like the Titanic? Will we slow dance on top of the wall until the champagne lulls us to sleep? Stay tuned. You are fortunate. You are here to witness this historic and monumental event. Drum roll please.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Great Wall of Forex.png Size: 88 KB
  • #940,880
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:42am Dec 4, 2014 6:42am
Quoting Kofmaster
Even this ecb drive market to a new high. This newly formed strength still requires a lot of testing to reverse this kind of trend. No matter what shorting is better than buying no matter what. That's why I don't encourage day trading. U don't know where it headed. But in long term it's a clear direction. god may delay but god does not deny
agreed with you, trading is all about probability, nothing is certain but if you trade with the trend the probability of your trade turning into profits is much higher
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