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  • #940,281
  • Dec 2, 2014 8:59pm Dec 2, 2014 8:59pm
Quoting Magicmen
I will give up buy after 2323
bulls should've never even considered longing until a confirmed breakout of 1.2510 downward trend resistance.... since the fall from 1.40 to where we are now.. otherwise bears are still in control. despite the consolidation we are now experiencing.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #940,282
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:07pm Dec 2, 2014 9:07pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} bulls should've never even considered longing until a confirmed breakout of 1.2510 downward trend resistance.... since the fall from 1.40 to where we are now.. otherwise bears are still in control. despite the consolidation we are now experiencing.
i think he's trading the consolidation bounce. I highly doubt that anyone here actually thinks the bearish momentum is over.
  • #940,283
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:09pm Dec 2, 2014 9:09pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} i think he's trading the consolidation bounce. I highly doubt that anyone here actually thinks the bearish momentum is over.
well too aggressive for my style. im a trend trader so when i identify that the trend is bearish i wont chase after longing opportunity on consolidation, id much rather sit on side and let the consolidation play out and if i see better prices to short during the consolidation ill only short in a down trend. wont catch counter trend trades. unless the consolidation manages to break above the trend then i will look for a confirmed breakout upwards before i enter long.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #940,284
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:10pm Dec 2, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} bulls should've never even considered longing until a confirmed breakout of 1.2510 downward trend resistance.... since the fall from 1.40 to where we are now.. otherwise bears are still in control. despite the consolidation we are now experiencing.
I am an early bird Wanna catch the reversal as early as possible.

EU will create history if it goes below 1.23195.
  • #940,285
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:15pm Dec 2, 2014 9:15pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} I am an early bird Wanna catch the reversal as early as possible. EU will create history if it goes below 1.23195.
well do not be surprised if EURUSD heads to Parity... EURUSD has traded at 0.88 levels during a time when US interest rates were at their highest.... so if US are really looking at interest rate normalization, potentially FED benchmark rates to get back to 3% levels... do not be surprised to see EURUSD heading to parity... especially when i do not see ANY momentum to buy the EURO...given the stance that ECB is still not reducing its monetary supply but rather keen expanding...
so no... so no EURUSD droping ebelow 1.2320 is not creating history, but rather REPLAYING what history has shown us before.... the only reason why EURUSD traded above 1.20 from 2008 till today is because of US's expanded monetary base... sooo wouldnt surprise me that EURUSD heads below 1.2320 if US are to contract its monetary base after 5 years of expansion....
its a global economic cycle at play here... if USDJPY rise to potentially the 30 years high doesnt hint at this shift... then i dont know what i need to convince you otherwise....

Besides. in Real GDP terms, Europe should not be valued higher than the US, so the EURO should not be valued above the USD.....
the EURO has been overvalued for a pretty darn long time.... so is the GBP for the matter of fact...
AUD is actually making sense.... trading below the 1 USD... NZD too....
CAD also finally making sense....

BTW you can take all this information and disregard it as you please, this is such a long term view to things that probably wont be incorporated in your trading style anyways....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,286
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:19pm Dec 2, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well do not be surprised if EURUSD heads to Parity... EURUSD has traded at 0.88 levels during a time when US interest rates were at their highest.... so if US are really looking at interest rate normalization, potentially FED benchmark rates to get back to 3% levels... do not be surprised to see EURUSD heading to parity... especially when i do not see ANY momentum to buy the EURO...given the stance that ECB is still not reducing its monetary supply but rather keen expanding... so no... so no EURUSD droping ebelow 1.2320 is not creating history,...
All makes very much sense, and agrees with my technical view, as I see EU heading very quickly to 1.21-22 area.

Edit: 1.21-22 by end of year easily...
  • #940,287
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:26pm Dec 2, 2014 9:26pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} All makes very much sense, and agrees with my technical view, as I see EU heading very quickly to 1.21-22 area. Edit: 1.21-22 by end of year easily...
Okay i like your view that EURUSD is going lower.. but 1.21-1.22 by year end.... something big of a news like Draghi to do whatever it takes to revive the European economy like Abe did would drive the EURUSD lower to 1.21-1.22 by year end...
otherwise if Draghi stay's his usual silent self.... and holidays coming soon. i doubt we'd get enough flow to push it down there by year end... Maybe better chance of that happening by end of Q1 2015.

On my side im seeing the liquidity in fx market drying up fast.... as if corporate are already in the holiday moods and not taking much position heading to next year....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,288
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:27pm Dec 2, 2014 9:27pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} I am an early bird Wanna catch the reversal as early as possible. EU will create history if it goes below 1.23195.
Yes, I agree. EU will create history if it goes below 1.23195 ............................. I will be part of history and many others here. Looking to add longs when get a chance.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #940,289
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:28pm Dec 2, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Yes, I agree. EU will create history if it goes below 1.23195 ............................. I will be part of history and many others here. Looking to add longs when get a chance.
if EU drops below 1.23195 is called creating history, shit we better come up with amazing names for ourselves.
I would like to have my surname Knighted lol
a prefix like Sir... or Lord... does have a nice ring to it.

how would you like Sir Chicky or Lord Chicky?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,290
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:30pm Dec 2, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} if EU drops below 1.23195 is called creating history, shit we better come up with amazing names for ourselves. I would like to have my surname Knighted lol a prefix like Sir... or Lord... does have a nice ring to it
Euro going below 1.23195 won't be something new, but I will be history. I am long, very long, very very long, longest ever.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #940,291
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:32pm Dec 2, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Euro going below 1.23195 won't be something new, but I will be history. I am long, very long, very very long, longest ever.
long? penis size??
damn hopefully not too long, you're gona need a massive heart to get it up....
imagine the amount of blood your hear needs to pump if you have like a footlong dick....
might have a heart attack just to get it up
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,292
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:39pm Dec 2, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Okay i like your view that EURUSD is going lower.. but 1.21-1.22 by year end.... something big of a news like Draghi to do whatever it takes to revive the European economy like Abe did would drive the EURUSD lower to 1.21-1.22 by year end... otherwise if Draghi stay's his usual silent self.... and holidays coming soon. i doubt we'd get enough flow to push it down there by year end... Maybe better chance of that happening by end of Q1 2015. On my side im seeing the liquidity in fx market drying up fast.... as if corporate are already in the...
Yep, I hear ya.

But it just moved 100+ pips down in a single day. I don't think it is far fetched for it to go down a few hundred pips in a few weeks. But I guess we'll see soon enough...
  • #940,293
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:43pm Dec 2, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} .... BTW you can take all this information and disregard it as you please, this is such a long term view to things that probably wont be incorporated in your trading style anyways....
Underlined is very true. Either way I earn. What I expressed is my personal view based on my algos.

Anyway, Thanks for that heads up (US interest rate).
  • #940,294
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:47pm Dec 2, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Underlined is very true. Either way I earn. What I expressed is my personal view based on my algos. Anyway, Thanks for that heads up (US interest rate).
btw, a little bit of a heads up too, i used to be an algo trader and yea got hurt hard because of it....
algos based on pure tech dont last very long because market behaviour changes...
i havent seen any algo that has adapted well to changes in market behaviour but you Could develop 2 different algo, one specialises in trend trading and one for range trading, but ultimately you have to decide when the market in your view is trending and when the market is ranging....
if you run both algos at the same time.. very often one would cancel out the profits made by the other....

theres also a lot of talks about development of algo that places trades based on central bank comments and news to identify the direction... well lets just say.... technical algos havent quite learned the "art of words" very well....
in the word of algos that verifies word to place orders, Outlook negative is interpreted as negative and algo places short trades.... when outlook negative means neutral now but potentially negative... which may or may not play out.... but algo not smart enough to figure it out yet...

theres a brokerage company quite famous (or rather infamous) in the US, called Knight Capital Group (KCG)... they did develop a fundies based algo analysing words used.... for High frenquency trading...
go lookup about that company's story... how they collapsed big time..,
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,295
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:06pm Dec 2, 2014 10:06pm
Damn, broke my cardinal rule of not fighting the trend at 1.2439 and placed a long without a stop, so far my weeks profit is in the bin :/ Do you think I should hold for a bounce or cut my losses now ?
  • #940,296
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:22pm Dec 2, 2014 10:22pm
seems like EU is at near support area
  • #940,297
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:30pm Dec 2, 2014 10:30pm
Quoting glitch86
Damn, broke my cardinal rule of not fighting the trend at 1.2439 and placed a long without a stop, so far my weeks profit is in the bin :/ Do you think I should hold for a bounce or cut my losses now ?
with this sucky trade environment you might get close to 1.2420.... not too sure above it.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,298
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:59pm Dec 2, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting mk5
seems like EU is at near support area
Bear waiting for green signal. Taking risk at this level may not offer better reward. So Draghi is they key
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #940,299
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:24pm Dec 2, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting forexings
{quote} Bear waiting for green signal. Taking risk at this level may not offer better reward. So Draghi is they key
Bears and bulls are both waiting for a breakout, but probability favours people in short positions because of the underlying major bear trend. probability of a lower low created is higher than a higher high.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #940,300
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:44pm Dec 2, 2014 11:44pm
I was just wondering what happened to the first person that made a post in this thread back in 2007/ Is he still trading?
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
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