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  • #45,461
  • Dec 2, 2014 4:59am Dec 2, 2014 4:59am
Nice trading lorbax & Fd7999! I reversed on AJ (+25pips) [nice cross on H1&H4 was looking good] & got in to AU (+15pips) : quick scalps, bad day (not feeling right - get out! - watch movie or something else), +40pips... Think green!!! goodluck to everyone!!!
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  • #45,462
  • Dec 2, 2014 5:29am Dec 2, 2014 5:29am
Quoting griffinssoul
Nice trading lorbax & Fd7999! I reversed on AJ (+25pips) [nice cross on H1&H4 was looking good] & got in to AU (+15pips) : quick scalps, bad day (not feeling right - get out! - watch movie or something else), +40pips... Think green!!! goodluck to everyone!!! {image}
Great Trade Griff - wish i could see the charts like this!
  • #45,463
  • Dec 2, 2014 5:33am Dec 2, 2014 5:33am
My EA H1 trades so far this week...

Monday: Entered short at LO (second red candle following a TDI cross, as per TMS rules). Moved SL to BE at +30 but got stopped out due to choppiness. Price did eventually go onto to hit my 50 pip TP but no bother.

Tuesday: Took an early entry (first blue candle and TDI touching, not crossed) long at LO. The early entry was backed up by a break of yesterday's low and a break of the third leg of the PCRF. Caught +50 . As it happens, price is continuing to make a strong move up and a standard TMS entry would have also given me a positive result.
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Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #45,464
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:03am Dec 2, 2014 6:03am
Quoting lorbax
AUD/USD Short on H4 (Daily confirmation) Entered at 11.00am (GMT+1) {image} I was hunting a short on h4, considering the D1 setup. This has an awesome RR of about 1:2 in my opinion, SL is about 30 pips so I oversized with two orders few minutes apart ... TP around 0,8425 area, but might modify it up or down depending on the PA. cheers
Looks good, but dont expect the market to go further down today, it has slightly violated its ADR already..
Just a head's up :b
  • #45,465
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:08am Dec 2, 2014 6:08am
Quoting moretti12
{quote} Looks good, but dont expect the market to go further down today, it has slightly violated its ADR already.. Just a head's up :b
I never expect anything.... I trade what I see and make a living out of it.
SL to BE, cashed out half and letting it go.
Lorenzo
  • #45,466
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:10am Dec 2, 2014 6:10am
Quoting lorbax
{quote} I never expect anything.... I trade what I see and make a living out of it. SL to BE, cashed out half and letting it go.
  • #45,467
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:27am Dec 2, 2014 6:27am
Quoting moretti12
{quote} Looks good, but dont expect the market to go further down today, it has slightly violated its ADR already.. Just a head's up :b
Hi moretti12,
I don't think we should expect price to honour the ADR either. It might, it might not. Sometimes the daily range will exceed the ADR sometimes it won't. That's why it's called an Average.
regards,
K
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #45,468
  • Edited 6:48am Dec 2, 2014 6:37am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting moretti12
{quote} Looks good, but dont expect the market to go further down today, it has slightly violated its ADR already.. Just a head's up :b
We are daily in a downtrend .. if stable or not , we will see ..

Stable down trends means lower lows .. so it´s not rocket science .. I´m in the same trade and will take 2/3 of my positionsize a little above the last
low . ( for me a support line ) . and 50 pips away from my entry . ( demo )
Another sign are the large wicks onn the last few blue bars.
The priceaction tells me " the air is thin" there.
my backtesting and demoing results are :
Most reached targets TMS h4 50-70 pips ( depends on the pair ), after around half target trigger SL to BE .
With this style I´m successful .. trade it in a demo under daily live conditions .. but too early to trade it on my real acc.
a proper moneymanagement keeps save me from large drawdowns.
And of course confidence and patience is the key to handle trading in general .
From week to week I collect more confidence in the TMS .. wanna say thanks to the seniors of this thread that way..
Green pips to all
Guido
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Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #45,469
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:43am Dec 2, 2014 6:43am
Quoting Kanderpro
{quote} Hi moretti12, I don't think we should expect price to honour the ADR either. It might, it might not. Sometimes the daily range will exceed the ADR sometimes it won't. That's why it's called an Average. regards, K
Nope... Its all about probabilities, but having it in the mind is one more tool to give us an edge in the market..

There is a tendency that if price reaches its Daily ATR in the London session, it will often times retrace during the London/NY overlap.
  • #45,470
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:44am Dec 2, 2014 6:44am
Quoting moretti12
{quote}
I'll offer you one of these if you stop caring of ADR
Attached Image
Lorenzo
  • #45,471
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:51am Dec 2, 2014 6:51am
Quoting Ballistical
My EA H1 trades so far this week... Monday: Entered short at LO (second red candle following a TDI cross, as per TMS rules). Moved SL to BE at +30 but got stopped out due to choppiness. Price did eventually go onto to hit my 50 pip TP but no bother. Tuesday: Took an early entry (first blue candle and TDI touching, not crossed) long at LO. The early entry was backed up by a break of yesterday's low and a break of the third leg of the PCRF. Caught +50 . As it happens, price is continuing to make a strong move up and a standard TMS entry would have...

Excellent trades. Just keep doing same thing ---------------
  • #45,472
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:54am Dec 2, 2014 6:54am
Quoting moretti12
{quote} Nope... Its all about probabilities, but having it in the mind is one more tool to give us an edge in the market.. There is a tendency that if price reaches its Daily ATR in the London session, it will often times retrace during the London/NY overlap.
Hi moretti12,
I agree.
In your original post you said that we shouldn't expect price to go further down today. I don't think we can expect price to honour the ADR. We can only say it might.
Regards,
K
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #45,473
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:10am Dec 2, 2014 7:10am
Good day all. GbpUsd +40
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  • #45,474
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:10am Dec 2, 2014 7:10am
Good morning Tms,
(It's 6:00 a.m. my time)

Let's look at some charts that I thought were interesting
when I first opened up my charts, this morning.

Just look at the flow of the market. See how price flows
into the guppy's. Price is (retracing) into the guppy's, then
(stalling), then price is (moving) out of the guppy's. Price
does this everyday & every time frame. This is a very natural
movement for the market. Look for this!
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  • #45,475
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:10am Dec 2, 2014 7:10am
ADR, ATR, Averages whatsoever ... are 'ex-post' analysis.
All ex-post analysis once the trade is already open are -most of times- just mere excuses to support yourself whether something is right or not.

At the moment, my trade is +40 pips, about +20 extra from where you said I shouldn't expect more, which is barely the double. I'm not saying it to "take this in your face" way ... I just want to explain the difference about what is like and what it should be like.

If we only need the ADR we should place limit orders up and down and profit out from them, shouldn't we? - the reality will show that it will AT BEST breakeven on the long run. ADR is an average, and it relies a lot on deviation from the average (known as standard deviation, and others)

EXAMPLE (which you probably know already):
number array1 : 5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45
number array2: 25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25
Both arrays have average of '25' but they are not at all equal .

Averages are very misleading in a stochastic process such as PA analysis, mainly because we have an infinite number of samples succeeding to each other in a SORT-OF Brownian motion.

cheers
Lorenzo
  • #45,476
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:17am Dec 2, 2014 7:17am
Quoting RedPhoenix
Good day all. GbpUsd +40 {image}
congrats to 40 pips !
What was the reason to take the 15th candle ??
It confuses me a little .
Big E teached the first or second one .. and I stick to it very harsh .
If you have another experience, let us please know .
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #45,477
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:29am Dec 2, 2014 7:29am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} congrats to 40 pips ! What was the reason to take the 15th candle ?? It confuses me a little . Big E teached the first or second one .. and I stick to it very harsh . If you have another experience, let us please know . Guido
Hi. I waited fore the news "Construction PMI", saw the number and enterd.
I dont trade the news but I look at it. TDI was good, crossing the 50 line and below 200 EMA
TP was 50 pips but because I had to leave the house and couldnt monitor the trade I took 40 pips
  • #45,478
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:34am Dec 2, 2014 7:34am
USDJPY... Entered on the 3rd candle [ Not recommend according to TMS rule ] after the pullback candle high broke. TDI cross and bounce over MBL. Cashed some run some
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Sad i'm not trying to understand PA
  • #45,479
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:36am Dec 2, 2014 7:36am
Quoting Fd7999
{quote} Morning SJ, referance this post about Time Frames ect, I use FXPrimus, they use a 5 day chart and the 4H candle closes at 6am GMT, 10am GMT, I have been looking at lots of old charts back testing and especially concerning the FO and LO the 4H candle closing 2 hours after open can save you from lots of fake outs, having said that it can also leave you a little late on entry.... each to there own but I must say I like missing the fakeouts, but when its on the shift sometimes the news coming out at 9.30 can keep it moving strongly for the 10am...
Good morning Fd7999,

The best way I can describe this is. You want to be in synch with the natural flow of the market.
Their is a open (Asia session), a middle (London session), and a close (N/Y session). You want
to have your charts set-up in the natural flow of the order. The 5 day charts are imho, a more
natural flow of the true time in the market.

Whether it help's or not is debatable. I feel better when I'm using the natural flow of things.
Maybe it's all psychological on my part?

Fxcm is still changing my platform over to the 5 day, N/Y close charts. They told me it would take
a couple of days for the transfer to take place because of so many customers switching over.
And you have to be flat in the market's with no trading of live accounts.
  • #45,480
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:39am Dec 2, 2014 7:39am
Quoting omonisha
USDJPY... Entered on the 3rd candle [ Not recommend according to TMS rule ] after the pullback candle high broke. TDI cross and bounce over MBL. Cashed some run some {image}
Omonisha,

Nice meeting you!

I just wanted to say that I have been watching your trades
and you are a excellent trader!

Thank you & again nice trading!

sj
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