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  • #939,961
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:30am Dec 1, 2014 11:30am
Do you think the ECB will hint an expansion of the QE to sovereign bonds on Thursday?
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,962
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:31am Dec 1, 2014 11:31am
Will look to follow the short after a break below 1.2478
  • #939,963
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:32am Dec 1, 2014 11:32am
Quoting Panco
I think the CFTC release the amount of contracts (buyers/sellers) in FX. You can use that as a good measurement tool. It is released every Friday.
Itīs called commitement of traders.
  • #939,964
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:32am Dec 1, 2014 11:32am
Quoting ElonMusketee
Even if what we are seing here is long term shorts taking profits the pair will have a bullish reaction to it, if thereīs enough momo it might have a medium term bull leg. USD weakens strongly today after hitting new highs.
In theory you are correct. I still think fresh money needs to come in to sustain medium-term gains. Bear in mind the ECB whether it will admit it or not wish to have a weak Euro to boost the economy (exports). I am not saying things will go there way but just makes you wonder.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,965
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:33am Dec 1, 2014 11:33am
Quoting ElonMusketee
{quote} Itīs called commitement of traders.
Yes, that's the one.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,966
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:34am Dec 1, 2014 11:34am
Quoting Panco
{quote} That what happens when many are shorting a currency. You think people that are short EURUSD will hold it forever? This was a mass short covering. The more people that are short, the bigger the short covering will be.
i am afraid this may not be the right approach. market does not move because of the coverings.
market is constantly in search of buyers and sellers and moves in the direction of bigger orders in order to fill them, once filled looks for the next one be it buy or sell
As Above, So Below
  • #939,967
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:36am Dec 1, 2014 11:36am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i am afraid this may not be the right approach. market does not move because of the coverings. market is constantly in search of buyers and sellers and moves in the direction of bigger orders.
Thatīs exactly it. Remember that shorts covering are buying back thus swiping sellers at these levels and building momo up if money is big enough
  • #939,968
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:37am Dec 1, 2014 11:37am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i am afraid this may not be the right approach. market does not move because of the coverings. market is constantly in search of buyers and sellers and moves in the direction of bigger orders.

Yes and No. If the total amount of short trades to the Euro (currency pairs are not really relevant on terms of risk management) is EUR 30.0 billion and there is a concern for the Euro to strengthen (fundamental or technical, irrelevant why), these traders will cut their exposure to the Euro, which will in turn create a spike in EUR pairs and crosses. Stops will be taken out, fuelling the rally. Of course, if fresh money joins the gains will be bigger.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,969
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:39am Dec 1, 2014 11:39am
Quoting justin7
Will look to follow the short after a break below 1.2478
Below 2478 is bullish. Below 2462 is bearish - Just my thought
  • #939,970
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:41am Dec 1, 2014 11:41am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Below 2478 is bullish. Below 2462 is bearish - Just my thought
I think EURUSD will be stuck in a range (look 4hr chart) unless there is a firm break above the resistance / support. I might try shorting EURUSD but I do not have an entry yet. Small tp, around +35 pips.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,971
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:44am Dec 1, 2014 11:44am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Below 2478 is bullish. Below 2462 is bearish - Just my thought
its above and below respectively

i considered eu bullish already... and then targeting 1.2750
  • #939,972
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:46am Dec 1, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Below 2478 is bullish. Below 2462 is bearish - Just my thought
Not looking at long term thinking more like something to take if its there during asia
  • #939,973
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:47am Dec 1, 2014 11:47am
Quoting Panco
{quote} I think EURUSD will be stuck in a range (look 4hr chart) unless there is a firm break above the resistance / support. I might try shorting EURUSD but I do not have an entry yet. Small tp, around +35 pips.
As per 4H chart, the range is 2525 -> 2340

Edit: 4H will close soon. Lets see fresh 4H
  • #939,974
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:47am Dec 1, 2014 11:47am
Quoting Panco
{quote} I think EURUSD will be stuck in a range (look 4hr chart) unless there is a firm break above the resistance / support. I might try shorting EURUSD but I do not have an entry yet. Small tp, around +35 pips.
y, this Range is a fake...i hope you all bought it at 2435 with TP 2475...the MFI was very clear...or else you could have longed it from 2420... dont fear about this Resistance, its only the D1 resistance, i told you the most important resistance isn't that one, it is another one for those who remember the 2008 Graphic ive posted you should know wher is the real one...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #939,975
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:47am Dec 1, 2014 11:47am
Quoting ElonMusketee
{quote} Thatīs exactly it. Remember that shorts covering are buying back thus swiping sellers at these levels and building momo up if money is big enough
i understand covering is basically reversing the position. however this does not mean that all big players trade this way. as far as i know most of them add to the winning positions in their portfolio by putting orders at more attractive levels.
As Above, So Below
  • #939,976
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:50am Dec 1, 2014 11:50am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i find this very risky at least for a short term my friend but wish you very best
Very risky is relative. 30 pips with the lot size im using now is 0.1% of the account, so im thinking 3-4 days ahead. I could leave these babies the whole day tomorrow and no matter what come back on wednesday. Thats the sort of thinking im employing here, just to put things in perspective.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #939,977
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:50am Dec 1, 2014 11:50am
Regardless the real prize will be a buy around the 30% fib retracement around 1.2455 give or take 5 pips if they decide to manipulate it below a little bit before it's brought up
  • #939,978
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:51am Dec 1, 2014 11:51am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} y, this Range is a fake...i hope you all bought it at 2435 with TP 2475...the MFI was very clear... {image}
there is no place for a word "fake" in the market. everything you can see and that causes profit or loss is real.
As Above, So Below
  • #939,979
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:51am Dec 1, 2014 11:51am
I remain bearish until daily close above falling trendline and 1.2506 fib level. Only then will I see a possible short term correction/reversal upwards. We are still within downward move and have been bouncing off every resistance on the way down.
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  • #939,980
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:52am Dec 1, 2014 11:52am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Very risky is relative. 30 pips with the lot size im using now is 0.1% of the account, so im thinking 3-4 days ahead. I could leave these babies the whole day tomorrow and no matter what come back on wednesday. Thats the sort of thinking im employing here, just to put things in perspective.
yes, by short term i meant max couple of days.
As Above, So Below
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