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EURUSD

  • #939,621
  • Nov 29, 2014 6:57am Nov 29, 2014 6:57am
the market will either gap DOWN or stay in the same position as last week's CLOSE. PLEASE folks OBEY TREND/DIRECTION .News is just to distract you.
  • #939,622
  • Nov 29, 2014 8:08am Nov 29, 2014 8:08am
Quoting hammadshahir
https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/ec...-business.html "BERLIN (Reuters) - ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said on Saturday she saw little room for further easing of monetary policy despite a further fall in euro zone inflation." What does it mean? No QE anymore?
utter bullshit is what i say to Sabine

inflation sucks ass and if ECB doesnt do anything about it they'll be in trouble.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #939,623
  • Nov 29, 2014 9:05am Nov 29, 2014 9:05am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} utter bullshit is what i say to Sabine inflation sucks ass and if ECB doesnt do anything about it they'll be in trouble.
any possible ecb decision that make the bull up? No easing?
  • #939,624
  • Edited 9:38am Nov 29, 2014 9:27am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting PhAnTi'
some thoughts on EU, a lot of Euro data next week, overall trend still bearish, although price consolidated in november. A discussion would be great, just to get some different point of views {image} {image} {image} {image} Best, J
atm the month is still red. atm (need a close Sunday) the week closed green, after last weeks engulfing red one. last weeks low created a db. so now we have a dt and a db.. so either near 3800 or 313x is the place to target. Friday's green week candle closed in the low side of the previous weeks candle mid body below 2449.7.. Sundays close should give more clues.. in the st bulls didnt allow a LL (unless one considers a LL was printed prier to last weeks open, in this case its very bearish)
if one does not consider the after hours moves as being relevant, then indeed waiting for the db or dt to fail is a good thing.. and the 2481 bounce may be worth the wait to enter after a break..
personally still sticking with the closes. eventually it will break north and i will get burned. i have been saving up for that for a while now. Fridays short term move did all a bear would do to setup 235x/6x.
the weeks move. did all needed to setup 2124 (if the after normal hours break LL is considered) if true, a bounce to 2467/81 may have already done the norm, on the 2529 bounce last week. still expect 230x/2330 to make life hard breaking it. i am not entering fresh shorts here. the time for that was higher. big areas take big time. a months close below 2473 is good for bears and below 2383 better as as 2313.. dec close below is much stronger
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #939,625
  • Nov 29, 2014 9:44am Nov 29, 2014 9:44am
Quoting ericnyamu
{quote} that's what called a bull trap. trapping fools who "think that the euro$ made a double bottom". if the double bottom is inline with the trend then you can run with it otherwise dont mess with trend.thats a small, trick you can use to get you out of trouble
is red and blue contradicting? it either is or not a db.. even if, it later broken trapping some. it is till its not. 2 good examples were the ea that went up 400+ and the gbp. 200 rise. some db/ dt are better then others. those cherries need to be studied with r/r in mind. a fits all mold is a bad thing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #939,626
  • Nov 29, 2014 9:51am Nov 29, 2014 9:51am
Quoting PhAnTi'
some thoughts on EU, a lot of Euro data next week, overall trend still bearish, although price consolidated in november. A discussion would be great, just to get some different point of views {image} {image} {image} {image} Best, J
My plan/analysis for the week ahead.

Monthly:
the pair has reached resistance, a bull trend line in a converging triangle trading range. 2 is a double bottom with 1. At the previous swing low 2, the inside-outside-inside bull setup was strong and readily produced a slightly higher low that led to two legs up. At 3, we had a big bear spike consisting of five bear closes. The first three were of increasingly larger size, closing near or at the low, which signifies selling vacuum in a range. The last two bars were range bars and shrank in size above resistance, which likely shows absorption at the range extreme. The last bar in effect became a Low 1 entry bar that turned into a doji and the last bears should be nervous about follow through. Based on this I’d be looking to buy any selloffs, especially to the Close and Low levels of the previous swing low 2. Some impatient bear profit takers must still be waiting for those levels.

Weekly:
Same picture as monthly, only clearer and more in favour of bull last-chance opportunity grabbers. The pair is resting in the zone of bull trend lines, which can be drawn differently. In any case, we technically have a higher low long setup already. There is an inside-outside-inside body setup, albeit with a tail on top on the last bar, which if triggered, would make a second attempt in quick succession to reverse the bear trend (the first attempt was at the previous swing low, but the bull bars had large tails on top. I’d be looking for opportunities to buy if high volume buying kicks in around the red trend line in the middle of the resistance area, around 1.232 as the first level and 1.22 as the ultimate bull trendline/level test.

Daily:
The bear channel trendline seems to be respected so far, but amid congestion, and breaking back below the middle of that tight range may be hard for bears, or may be a shortlived breakout. Plus we have a strong looking double bottom A+B, and double bottoms, if they are true, normally get a double bottom pullback, which may test the double bottom again. So further sideways to down consolidation can be expected to the 1.238-1.236 area, where I’d be looking to fade bear breakouts on 5M and get a position for a bull swing above the bear TL.

The plan for the week: Expect range conditions and enter only on fades (short scalp only, long scalp + swing). Especially look to buy at. 1.236-1.238, then 1.232 an 1.22. Until those levels are reached, only scalp both long and short breakouts above/below second swing highs/lows intraday and look for quick scalps off failed wedge breakouts.
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #939,627
  • Nov 29, 2014 10:03am Nov 29, 2014 10:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} is red and blue contradicting? it either is or not a db.. even if, it later broken trapping some. it is till its not. 2 good examples were the ea that went up 400+ and the gbp. 200 rise. some db/ dt are better then others. those cherries need to be studied with r/r in mind. a fits all mold is a bad thing.
imho, this double bottom came after a break above the bear trendline and 20 EMA, the double bottom was set by two strong bull signal bars in fresh noncongested areas, so, from the point of view of price action, looks pretty convincing at least for some consolidation. If it is a genuine double bottom, we should see a double bottom pullback in the form of a congested accumulation just above the double bottom and maybe even a quick retest of it and rejection, that would be a sign of bull strength. And then at the most unexpected moment on Friday, a big bull spike, which will be missed by most...
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #939,628
  • Nov 29, 2014 10:05am Nov 29, 2014 10:05am
Quoting justin7
Key prices I will look at heading into next week: {image}
nice...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #939,629
  • Edited 10:26am Nov 29, 2014 10:14am | Edited 10:26am
Alas, Monday is December...time to scale things down, at least for me. Its a good month to be extra careful. Nothing worse that closing the year out on a sour note. Tough to enjoy the holidays while getting your hat handed to you. Been there, done that, and it sucks. True, there is lots of volatility, as things tend to thin out. But not a good time to chase, or make your bones. Guess, my comment is more a reminder to myself, more than anything. But if you haven't made it thus far, getting after it in DEC, usually ends badly. Anyway, JAN is just around the corner. At any rate...Look sharp, trade tight, good luck... PTL..

Personal note...just noticed its my 20th DECember, lol, feels like my first...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #939,630
  • Nov 29, 2014 10:27am Nov 29, 2014 10:27am
EURUSD in my opinion will continue rising until 4 December (Thursday). If Draghi will hint sovereign bonds purchasing, the effect on the Euro is debatable. It could be heavily sold, or, it could post moderate gains as the market will be satisfied with his approach to the poor European economy. I believe EURUSD will eventually gain but cannot back it up by technical analysis yet.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,631
  • Nov 29, 2014 10:29am Nov 29, 2014 10:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} atm the month is still red. atm (need a close Sunday) the week closed green, after last weeks engulfing red one. last weeks low created a db. so now we have a dt and a db.. so either near 3800 or 313x is the place to target. Friday's green week candle closed in the low side of the previous weeks candle mid body below 2449.7.. Sundays close should give more clues.. in the st bulls didnt allow a LL (unless one considers a LL was printed prier to last weeks open, in this case its very bearish) if one does not consider the after hours moves...

Thanks for the insights G.

maybe we get the new hh or ll next week with lots of €-data in the queue
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #939,632
  • Edited 11:16am Nov 29, 2014 10:59am | Edited 11:16am
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} imho, this double bottom came after a break above the bear trendline and 20 EMA, the double bottom was set by two strong bull signal bars in fresh noncongested areas, so, from the point of view of price action, looks pretty convincing at least for some consolidation. If it is a genuine double bottom, we should see a double bottom pullback in the form of a congested accumulation just above the double bottom and maybe even a quick retest of it and rejection, that would be a sign of bull strength. And then at the most unexpected moment on Friday,...
i cant argue with that. i will say there was a dt, before the second bottom (this weeks).. using the dt. it did break the 257x one to 2599.. so it already has broken that dt, and normally i would have longed to target near 2800 after a pullback to 2357/2467...
my problem now as it was then, is the dt was broken on news events. i posted then actually before 2599 was hit on the possible anomaly at 259x while 257x was still the top. so i disregarded the dt being broke ( giving it less importance). because of circumstances live. that said and it being a dt regardless since. what many dont see is the low between the top was breached last weekend after hours. most brokers only show it as what appears to be a db, w/o charts picking up that low was broken. and after a LL it did retrace to 2529. a normal thing to do, before a continuation drop.(a LL after the DT low, was made after hours last weekend)

atm u have a lower low and a lower high. what happens tomorrow i dont know.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #939,633
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:19am Nov 29, 2014 11:19am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I closed some though when AUDUSD rejected from Daily Open ....
I killed some on the way back. Not optimal. Was heading towards 8300 but couldnt make it. Retraced strong so half off on the way back.Yes AU seems to like the low atm
  • #939,634
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:23am Nov 29, 2014 11:23am
Many of the majors are hovering near new highs/lows of the USD bull trend. AUD/USD sitting in an area it hasn't been since 2010 and looking ready to go further south. USD/JPY eyeing 120. EUR/USD eyeing 1.2000, which is probably not happening this week.

Will probably have some big moves this week.
  • #939,635
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:23am Nov 29, 2014 11:23am
This may cause a gap up for the pair

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ecbs-...ses-1417257394
  • #939,636
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:24am Nov 29, 2014 11:24am
Hi to everyone.

End of the year is coming and we can see some corrections this month.

Euro made good pattern at weekly chart and DXY is at serious resistance area.You can see divergence of the Macd indicator.This pattern brings big pull back from the top.

I guess for all pairs December will be corrective month.
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  • #939,637
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:27am Nov 29, 2014 11:27am
Quoting mond33
This may cause a gap up for the pair http://online.wsj.com/articles/ecbs-...ses-1417257394
good one
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #939,638
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:29am Nov 29, 2014 11:29am
better
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #939,639
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:31am Nov 29, 2014 11:31am
I don't think the WSJ news is enough for a major gap.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #939,640
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:34am Nov 29, 2014 11:34am
Quoting teddybomber
Many of the majors are hovering near new highs/lows of the USD bull trend. AUD/USD sitting in an area it hasn't been since 2010 and looking ready to go further south. USD/JPY eyeing 120. EUR/USD eyeing 1.2000, which is probably not happening this week. Will probably have some big moves this week.
There are elections in Japan next month. This pair will be very volatile in the next couple of weeks so I am not sure I will touch it.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
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