Forex Probability Meter - NITRO+

tommbstone - I am sorry to learn you had issues with an email being returned and not properly receiving your 5N+ upgrade.

Just saw an email to support@ that was received last night. An initial email may have been returned to prevent SPAM. Emails to both ashley@ and steve@ need to be sender-verified by clicking a link. This adds to whitelist. This is newer so may not have applied to communications prior. Posting both addresses here on FF caused spiders to pick them up. The addresses were then of course sold to Forex MT4 Robot Spammers and Rogue Russian Programmers Who Have Cracked The Forex Code. Sorry for the inconvenience.

I believe the 5N+ Upgrade was sent months ago to you. Since you never actually went through the checkout process, your name and email was added to a separate list that requires us to send out each new download link manually.

I thought I actually recalled seeing the download log recently of these separate customers and noting that you may have already downloaded it a few months ago. The new download link should have been sent to the email with 'loans' in the address as noted in this separate list.

I'm sure I am wrong or misread the download log. I'll check again tomorrow morning around London open.

Not sure what's up so two more new links were created and sent to both email addresses.

There is a link or box to click at bottom of emails. Click one or both to ensure those emails get added to the group that receives free upgrades automatically.

tommbstone - your Yahoo rejected a reply the other day. The reply was from the same support@ email address we have been using with you and that I think you manually whitelisted. I don't get it because 192.185.145.3 isn't even our domain or email domain. It is some other random Hostgator IP that was blacklisted for sending Viagra spam. We have dedicated IPs, not shared. Great, now I have to figure this out ... it never ends

host mta6.am0.yahoodns.net[xx.xxx.xxx.xx] said: 421
4.7.0 [TS01] Messages from 192.185.145.3 temporarily deferred due to user
complaints - 4.16.55.1; see hxxp://postmaster.yahoo.com/421-ts01.html (in
reply to MAIL FROM command)


I think you were concerned that 5N+ might not indicate opportunities early enough for your 15 minute expire binary options.

Make a note that with this new 5th version in comparison to the 2nd version you had used in the past, entirely new features have been added allowing the user to now fine-tune meter response for multiple styles of trading and to meet exact informational needs:

 

1. You can now adjust Time Outlook to -reduced- from the default -extended- setting
2. -reduced- Time Outlook setting will 'quicken up' the response of the entire meter for each time frame loaded or selected
3. You can now select Time Frame from a drop down list. These include new in-between such as M3 M6 M10 M12 M20 H3 H12, for example
4. For Example when loaded on an M15 chart: Choosing M12 will quicken. Choosing M20 will smooth
5. An additional Strength output was added
6. You can now adjust both Strength Lookback periods to your preference

Using the Time Outlook + Time Frame + Strength Lookback settings in combination allow for pinpoint response adjustment.

For more in-depth information about new features added allowing for user adjustment of meter response, view the following pages:

1. Changelog on Home Page
2. 5NITRO+ Formula Page

Build 749 is fine.

Border Type: 'non-dynamic pointer' has been like this since the first MT4 600+ back in Feb 2014. It didn't just come to be this past weekend or sometime in the past several months since 5N+ was compiled. It is a Metaquotes glitch that they have not yet fixed or even noticed.

Some of the list options, such as for all the 16x Display Modes .... were created by the programmer because they are unique to the meter.

Other list options, such as for Time Frames and the Border Types noted above .... are Metaquotes-created enumerations and are hard coded into MQL4.

We could have created an alternative enumeration of our own for the Border Types to fix the glitch, but it was just assumed they would have fixed it by now.

It is not that major of a deal if it is just remembered non-dynamic pointer = sunken. They will fix it eventually and when they do 5N+ will automatically fix itself to display the corrected selections of:

1. flat
2. raised
3. sunken

Hey steve, thanks for the great work done on this indicator.

I was wondering if you could explain the symbol strength section a little bit more. I just don't fully get it yet.

From the website:

"So then, the Pair Strength Formula inside of 5NITRO+ is equivalently measuring the strength of every single EUR pair and every single USD pair that exists and is represented in tandem.
Then, it automatically subtracts the strength differential of these two underlying Currencies for you. It essentially produces for you a “Net Strength” after automatically calculating the differential of the two Underlying Currencies."

1. By strength of pair, is that talking about trend strength?
2. So if EUR pairs across the board have a strong trend and USD pairs across the board have a weaker trend, then EUR trends minus USD trends equals symbol strength?
3. Assuming that is true, then a low SS would mean you are looking at a pair who's currencies are both strongly trending, or both weakly trending?

Thank you, happy thanksgiving!

rudy -

1. Exactly, strength of pair is trend strength of that pair. Strength = High Percentage Change Up. Weakness = High Percentage Change Down
2. Exactly
3. Exactly

1. 0 = the first currency is weak and second is strong
2. 9 = first currency is strong and second is weak

Websurfers over the past 4 years often want to know if 5N+ is a Currency Strength Meter or if the SS Box is the CSM built into it. I say "No" and point them to that page for the explanation why. They say "Oh, that is too bad that it does not have a CSM built into the formula. I would buy it if you would add a CSM into the formula code".

So that quote and that section is trying to explain how all of the advantages of using Pair Strength in the formula far outweigh using Currency Strength in the formula.

All CSMs inevitably become Cluster Indicators, regardless of their formulas. A Cluster Indicator, as we know, uses only percentage price change in its calculation and as its aggregation. It is just basically averaging all of the charts. The free currency strength chart on our website does exactly this.

So regardless of how developers, such as Tom Yeomans or WYFX, try to claim that their specific Currency Strength Formula is superior because of this or that ... strength is strength. It is what it is. There is no other way to describe recent Japanes Yen action other than 'extremely weak'. It does not really matter, in my opinion, what actual formula is used because what most users desire for the tool to be anyhow is a Chart Aggregator. Developers could simply use MACD for each pair or the 7SMA or RSI.

Point is again, strength is strength and slope is slope. Percentage Change, MACD, 7SMA, RSI, or Tom Yeomans' proprietary 'complex and robust strength formula' are not that drastically different from eachother. And thus, are all statistically equivalent in the end to a Cluster Indicator. They will all ultimately conclude that the 'Japanese Yen has been very weak' or that the 'Japanese Yen has been decreasing at a sharp slope angle'.

So, the EURUSD chart itself is essentially one of these Cluster Indicators. But, it is automatically doing the math and giving us the differential of the two pairs combined ... which is really what matters anyhow.

1. Now, if we are Basket Traders or employ ocassional Basket-type methods ... then yes, use a CSM or CI on its own monitor in both meter + spaghetti
2. Or, if we want to instantly see what is going on with the entire market and instantly see where the action is
3. But, it is unnecessary to include a CSM inside of every 5N+ instance on every chart. There are no advantages of using Currency Strength over Pair Strength inside of the 5N+ formula. If 5N+ says EURUSD is 100% Short, why would it matter whether this is the result of EUR weakness or USD strength or some combination in between? It doesn't. Differential is all that matters.

If we want to base decisions on Currency Trends rather than or in addition to Pair Trends, then we should install and use a separate CSM or CI. Measuring Currencies is their job. Measuring individual Pairs is the job of 5NITRO+, and it does its job very well.

Tom Yeoman's Accustrength continues to be the top choice for this separate, dedicated CSM:

5NITRO+

awesome thanks dude! Time to get mine soon.

I emailed sales@ a few days ago asking about the number of installations available per purchase. I have 2 accounts thru 1 broker and am about to set up an account with a separate broker. On top of that I use 2 separate computers. Would you be able to answer that question here?

rudy - [email protected]?

 

1. @megatrendfx.com?
2. @wyfxco.com?

The only one that exists is @wyfxco.com but I don't think that has ever been made public so not sure how you knew it existed. We just get all of the sale notifications there.

Anyways there is not any email with that topic to that address or any address. There are no unanswered emails except a few from the last 8-10 hours. Check your inbox to see if you have a 'Returned to Sender' email. Maybe our email system just randomly rejected it like the other day with tommbstone. Maybe that sales@ is set up so you have to click a link to confirm you're not a robot but I don't think so.

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Hi all,

This is my setup for trading binaries, it seems very difficult due to the short-term noise. I use 2-15 m expiry on a demo at 24option.

Can this be improved or is just a coin toss?

What I can gather sofar, 100% prob and full matrix = reversal?

regards,
Fredrik

wyfxco.com - I think I either saw it in a previous post or guessed, but I didnt get a failed email notification.


18,000 pip change in the USD/RUB today. WOW

I'm definitely not the guy to get started about short term Binary Options. Do I personally think it is a coin flip? Well, I guess I better not get started.

But yes it really has seemed over the years that 97% 98% 99% 100% can be reliable on <=M30. Not to take huge bets on any single event, but reliable across many events, many pairs, and over many months and years. I think there is a statistical edge and it seems to truly indicate a momentary exhaustion of the current trend.

Some other variable here might also need to be 'Time of Day' and 'News Events'

Time of Day Example:
If Yen Pairs are peaking at 100% Long approaching the end of NY Equity Close? I would think the odds might be greater, at least in terms of your Binary Options.

 

1. Meaning: At the top of the hour when NY Equity closes, a 15 minute Put might present better odds.

News Events Example:
If EURUSD or EURCAD has been strong for the past 12 hours hovering in and around 60% to 90% and the ECB releases data or makes an announcement that causes price to spike up almost immediately to 100%? I would think the odds might be less, at least in terms of your Binary Options.

 

1. Meaning: Shortly after ECB event with 5NITRO+ quickly maxxing out at 100%, a 15 minute Put might NOT present better odds.

matriXx Note:
With the default limits, you'll hardly ever see all (12) dots illuminated at the same exact time. Though, they may all illuminate at some point within a rolling 10 minute period of time for example.

It is much easier to get momentum-based indications to all agree than it is OBOS. So I would say with your stated formula, a constant rolling 8+ blocks illuminated during about a 10 minute period of time is generally eqivalent to all 12 blocks illuminated for only a few minutes total in that same period.

Yeah I've been feeling sooooo sorry for the soviets and their oil. Maybe it is time to diversify a bit? Although I guess they do have Metatrader.

Metatrader is russian and i use bing to translate it says russian
Eurusd
Usdchf the same even still it says 83% sell last week it says 85 day after this email

Thanks. I've started to move away from binaries, but it's fun to gamble sometimes on a demo.

I'm curious as to entry/exit points in relation to the prob meter, it's of course individual but can anything general be said apart from the 50% level?

I'm sure this has been discussed already, please point me in the right direction.

It seems like if I enter after a large move and high prob I always get burned in a reversal?

This is of course how the MMs make their money so how can I use the prob meter to infer what they're up to?

regards,
Fredrik

Fredrik - which sessions are you trying to infer what MMs are up to? London + New York overlap? Australia?

Is there a way you could maybe explain in more detail the events leading up to always getting burned on reversals? Like when you say you get burned entering after large moves and high percentage does this mean like jumping in on USDJPY for the very first time here at 121.000, would that be an example of what you are saying sort of? Or what would be a better example?

Have you noticed any pattern that it happens more than other times? Like maybe it happens more with FX pairs rather than CFDs? Or it happens more with positions you take using the H4 + Daily charts more than positions you take using the M1 + M5 charts? Does it matter how long you hold the position or what you had set the take profit amount or the stop loss to be .... or it is pretty much all the same?

You want limits again? I'm done with entries on those pairs. But yes my positions in them have not changed. Why would they have.

That short 83% must have been on M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M10 M12 M15 or even M30 if reduced time outlook, right? Yeah so like I said in that same email you can still have the meter calculate M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M10 M12 M15 if this is what you like, but then still be able to see at least intermediate support and resistance and also trend lines + trend channels. Just select M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M10 M12 M15 from the drop down list and increase your chart's time frame to H1 or M30 zoomed out. What display resolution?

You could always just plot these levels on the weekend using an H4 Daily or Weekly chart, you know?

I'll upload those 2 in a new post

H4 continuation of USDCHF + EURUSD from previous Post#225+Post#226 and Post#275

 

1. Charts are from last Wednesday December 03 sometime during New York prior to sharp retracements
2. Top meters are extended time outlook setting. Bottom meters are reduced time outlook setting.
3. Although bottom meters are not 100%, it looks like both pairs continued 15 pips and 25 pips further before sharply retracing. This continued strength and weakness surely pushed both bottom meters to also maxx out at 100% like the top.

So like in Post#292 above, 97% 98% 99% 100% continues to be reliable in indicating a possible momentary exhaustion of the current trend. Though like is noted on the website, caution is usually advised for higher time frames like this H4 and more so Daily Weekly Monthly as the meter can spend a great deal of time in and around these maxxed out levels. As these high 5N+ levels on higher time frames is usually a true indication of real money flow and real strength or weakness, price can continue and continue and continue. Alas USDJPY.

Which is why 100% maxxed out, regardless of time frame, is maybe an area to manually take some profit. Rather than to go all in trying to pick the top or bottom while predicting a major reversal or major retracement.

H4 continuation of EURUSD + USDCHF today Monday December 08 during London

1. Top meters are extended time outlook setting. Bottom meters are reduced time outlook setting
2. EURUSD are both 100% maxxed out at about 1.2250 which was the lowest point since July 2012
3. USDCHF are both 97% 99% maxxed out at about 0.9815 which was nearly the highest point since July 2012

​

Nice trades!

What is the thick black line on your charts?