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NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

So when we finally reach 120...do you think we will skyrocket due to stops being hit, followed by a deep retracement? That's my guess...just curious on views!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
Quoting dbutton1990
So when we finally reach 120...do you think we will skyrocket due to stops being hit, followed by a deep retracement? That's my guess...just curious on views!
122 seems to me to be a more likely target before any significant pull back.
120 is very important level form year 1999...correction is what we need if we want to go UP....
Quoting despues
120 is very important level form year 1999...correction is what we need if we want to go UP....
If it has blasted past 120 many times since 1999, I don't see any reason it won't blast past it again. But we will see...
Quoting despues
120 is very important level form year 1999...correction is what we need if we want to go UP....
I should add (as my signature points out) of course anything is possible. It could bounce off 120. But I just base my opinion on what I see the price doing, and where I see the S/R levels. So far, it has blasted past so many S/R levels, I wouldn't be surprised if it hits 124 before any pull-back.

But again, the nearest (significant) S/R level I see is around 122...
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I should add (as my signature points out) of course anything is possible. It could bounce off 120. But I just base my opinion on what I see the price doing, and where I see the S/R levels. So far, it has blasted past so many S/R levels, I wouldn't be surprised if it hits 124 before any pull-back. But again, the nearest (significant) S/R level I see is around 122...
I'm hedging my bets on at least a small pullback before going beyond 120. there's just too much of a psychological block for it to just fly right through; as previously stated, it's a level that hasn't been seen in over a decade, and it's also a round number to boot (forex seems has a fascination with round numbers.)

The only question is how big the correction will be-will it only go down 100pips or so before going straight back up? OR will we see a more pronounced correction?
FOREX is dangerous because when correction is coming we depend on leverage that we have and if we can withstand the pressure.... should be careful ..

correction could be on both sides.....
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'm hedging my bets on at least a small pullback before going beyond 120. there's just too much of a psychological block for it to just fly right through; as previously stated, it's a level that hasn't been seen in over a decade, and it's also a round number to boot (forex seems has a fascination with round numbers.) The only question is how big the correction will be-will it only go down 100pips or so before going straight back up? OR will we see a more pronounced correction?
2005 and 2007 saw price above 120. Just saying...

But in terms of significant pull back, the only thing I'd view in the category as "significant" is if it shows up as a pull back on the daily chart. This would be much more than 100 pips. There was one last month. Could be one this month, but I doubt it.

I only base my opinion on where the S/R levels are. I just don't see anything around 120. But my opinion on this is worth nothing really. I will form a better opinion once I see how price is reacting to whatever level it finds itself at. But even then, it'll just be an opinion which could be right or wrong.

Having said all of that, if it does break out long from the current consolidation, I'd expect 119 to become support. So, could easily hit 120, back off to 119, then go to 121, etc...

Fun to speculate
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0J51MM20141121
if this wedge breaks down in nikkei it will be nasty for u/j
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Quoting MaryJane
if this wedge breaks down in nikkei it will be nasty for u/j {image}
That looks like it's getting ready to breakout to the north, which would be a good thing for the U/J
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
117.70 proving to be a strong level of support. Let's see if we can gain 118.20 before Japan open
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
Quoting MaryJane
if this wedge breaks down in nikkei it will be nasty for u/j {image}
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Think this will stay in bearish range for a while:
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Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} That looks like it's getting ready to breakout to the north, which would be a good thing for the U/J
Yeah, although a rising wedge is usually a bearish pattern (market reaching for supply this way), an upside break is in cards too. Then, sky is the limit for u/j My plain guess is the downside though the last time i posted here was the day it rallied to 118.98, my sell order has been filled @118.56 and i remain short with a stop above the highs and since the u/j and the j225 started to diverge, i'm looking to add to it if the j225 attacks the upper line of the wedge.. 1st target around 116.90, 2nd around 115. Risking 60 pips for 160 (at least) is ok.
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Quoting MaryJane
{quote} Yeah, although a rising wedge is usually a bearish pattern (market reaching for supply this way), an upside break is in cards too. Then, sky is the limit for u/j My plain guess is the downside though the last time i posted here was the day it rallied to 118.98, my sell order has been filled @118.56 and i remain short with a stop above the highs and since the u/j and the j225 started to diverge, i'm looking to add to it if the j225 attacks the upper line of the wedge.. 1st target around 116.90, 2nd around 115. Risking 60 pips for...
Very nice job! Beautiful trade!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} Very nice job! Beautiful trade!
thanks still could evolve into a 68 pip loss
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For me nothing has changed my near-term view. Still targeting 118.43.

Only thing that would change my view is if price falls below 117.68.

I also look at GBPJPY which looks way more bullish in its consolidation. I expect an explosive move with both pairs.

The "explosive" move might not be today... But I expect consolidation to be played out, and see a breakout within a day or so...
Quoting MaryJane
if this wedge breaks down in nikkei it will be nasty for u/j {image}
and dollar index the same wedge
Quoting benaiah
Still targeting 118.43.
i would to see that level
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