Opened Classic short USD/JPY {image} {image}
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- #77,741
- Nov 25, 2014 1:11am Nov 25, 2014 1:11am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
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- #77,745
- Nov 25, 2014 3:37am Nov 25, 2014 3:37am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
{quote} Hum, disagree with you on point 1. See my trade below (this morning). It is not THE indicator but it is a very good indicator (after red candles) {image}
I simply meant that price moving up on big volume does not necesseraly mean that big players are shorting (in this case - I attached the chart of the CL futures. (Not cfd!)
In fact (I think) big money was actually pushin price up right into the stops that part of the day. (What is more interesting is that, at the top there were no more pushes. Probably big money didnt want to push price further?! It was the turning point of the trend btw....)
I wasnt b*tching at your indicator - its a great one and I use something similar. I was talking about your tick data feed. Big difference.
Just look at the GU futures. BIG BIG difference... ;-)
My point was to give a warning about the feed and it's reliability. Thats all.
PS: Nice trade!
It's all psychology...
- #77,747
- Edited 6:14am Nov 25, 2014 4:54am | Edited 6:14am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Volume & PVSRA & Classics
What we focus on is the relative change in volume, not the specific amount of volume (or ticks/price changes as the case may be). Highlighted incidents of notable changes might be buyer initiated or a seller initiated PA, regardless of color. We can't know, but their placement in overall PA might offer a clue, as in the start of a move off of ranging, or the possible end of a move as price crosses key S&R.
The highlighting of notable relative changes in activity is simply to alert you to the situation. What the meaning of it is might be ascertained by a study of PA in general, and where the PA is relative to S&R in particular, PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis). PVSRA sometimes does and sometimes does not yield clear indications as to if the MMs are bullish or bearish. When there is no clear indication and you are not sure what is going on, simply do not trade! When there seemingly is a clear indication, that is the time to be patiently stalking for a Classic setup that is in agreement with that indication.
Trading
It is impossible to know from PA alone how price will move next. It is impossible to know from viewing volume alone how price will move next. It is impossible to know from studying S&R alone how price will move next. The best chance we have as traders to succeed against the Robber Bank MMs that are hell bent on stealing our money is to take all three of these most important metrics, attempt to get an indication as to the bull/bear status of the MMs via PVSRA, and then patiently await a confirming Classic setup. And if a Classic setup comes and it is opposite the results of our PVSRA, what then? Classic setups always take precedence, even if contrary to our indications from PVSRA. But we trade it with reservations and extra caution, and perhaps more conservative expectations. The bottom line is this, we cannot ever know how price will move next. Period. All we can do is review these three metrics and see if things seem to be adding up correctly. And once in a trade, have a plan for what we will do if PA goes against it; to fold, hold or add.
tah
What we focus on is the relative change in volume, not the specific amount of volume (or ticks/price changes as the case may be). Highlighted incidents of notable changes might be buyer initiated or a seller initiated PA, regardless of color. We can't know, but their placement in overall PA might offer a clue, as in the start of a move off of ranging, or the possible end of a move as price crosses key S&R.
The highlighting of notable relative changes in activity is simply to alert you to the situation. What the meaning of it is might be ascertained by a study of PA in general, and where the PA is relative to S&R in particular, PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis). PVSRA sometimes does and sometimes does not yield clear indications as to if the MMs are bullish or bearish. When there is no clear indication and you are not sure what is going on, simply do not trade! When there seemingly is a clear indication, that is the time to be patiently stalking for a Classic setup that is in agreement with that indication.
Trading
It is impossible to know from PA alone how price will move next. It is impossible to know from viewing volume alone how price will move next. It is impossible to know from studying S&R alone how price will move next. The best chance we have as traders to succeed against the Robber Bank MMs that are hell bent on stealing our money is to take all three of these most important metrics, attempt to get an indication as to the bull/bear status of the MMs via PVSRA, and then patiently await a confirming Classic setup. And if a Classic setup comes and it is opposite the results of our PVSRA, what then? Classic setups always take precedence, even if contrary to our indications from PVSRA. But we trade it with reservations and extra caution, and perhaps more conservative expectations. The bottom line is this, we cannot ever know how price will move next. Period. All we can do is review these three metrics and see if things seem to be adding up correctly. And once in a trade, have a plan for what we will do if PA goes against it; to fold, hold or add.
tah
- #77,748
- Nov 25, 2014 5:50am Nov 25, 2014 5:50am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #77,750
- Nov 25, 2014 6:32am Nov 25, 2014 6:32am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #77,751
- Nov 25, 2014 6:54am Nov 25, 2014 6:54am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #77,752
- Nov 25, 2014 7:14am Nov 25, 2014 7:14am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #77,754
- Nov 25, 2014 8:33am Nov 25, 2014 8:33am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #77,756
- Edited 12:54pm Nov 25, 2014 8:54am | Edited 12:54pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
{quote} Thanks Tah for your advice, I will be extra careful when trading non-classic trades in future and I will try to trade more Classic than Scout . Really appreciates your help. Thanks again. XT EURUSD, Classic Long opened, light position, as now is not in LS anymore. {image}
I do not mean to single you out. Please understand I post like this only for whatever help it might be to you, and to others.
This long trade is not a classic. Your PA wave form encompasses too much time. Furthermore, your entry is too far out. Do you not think that with the LS coming to a close, the MMs might start manipulating the price lower? Especially if they plan on pushing it higher later? Doing so would get them lower prices for adding new longs before they push the price higher. Does this make sense?
We cannot know how the price will move, but making an entry minutes before the end of the LS does not make sense. In all likelihood, PA will retrace, if not during the rest of the US session, then probably with the next AS. Now, I could be wrong, have been before. This could move up in after hours (2nd part of US session). Time will tell.
Edit: As you can see, some 15 minutes after the close of the LS, price is already retracing. The MMs might take it back below the half number to reload more longs. We can never know how the MMs will move the price, but we do need to think out the possibilities as we trade.
- #77,757
- Edited 1:57pm Nov 25, 2014 1:31pm | Edited 1:57pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #77,758
- Edited 4:19pm Nov 25, 2014 2:48pm | Edited 4:19pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
