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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #51,341
  • Nov 23, 2014 6:57pm Nov 23, 2014 6:57pm
Oanda open position order book dramatic increase from last week now current time at 57.51% long side USDJPY.

Past several weeks unit remained near the balance point Neither long nor short dominant at least with this brokers book printing.
This actual position shift towards the long side is at least now reflecting the upward bias that has been all but scandalous.

Opposites attract! and with that being defined I expect this pair to struggle to remain so "dollar dominant". As of this writing Japan is on holiday. Later in the next session maybe so dip buying will occur from the "cant go wrong bunch" beyond that into the U.S. period it will again be a coin toss with the cash whores.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #51,342
  • Nov 23, 2014 6:59pm Nov 23, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting pistacho
117.5 already broken. Heavy support at 117.3X
I'm still long. Back in with tight SL at 117.562. I'm not worried unless H4 close below the 8 ema...

Since this is a key level, I believe should be a strong move up soon. If I'm wrong, H4 close will confirm...
  • #51,343
  • Nov 23, 2014 7:11pm Nov 23, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I'm still long. Back in with tight SL at 117.562. I'm not worried unless H4 close below the 8 ema... Since this is a key level, I believe should be a strong move up soon. If I'm wrong, H4 close will confirm...
I definitely think a retest of 119 is going to happen this week. I have a target set for 120 on hopes that 119 is broken. Stop at 117.26...lets hope for the best!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,344
  • Nov 23, 2014 7:14pm Nov 23, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I'm still long. Back in with tight SL at 117.562. I'm not worried unless H4 close below the 8 ema... Since this is a key level, I believe should be a strong move up soon. If I'm wrong, H4 close will confirm...
ya I have longs from 117.7 and I also added a small .01 lot once we hit above 117.9 (poor choice I might add) but whatever.
  • #51,345
  • Nov 23, 2014 8:40pm Nov 23, 2014 8:40pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
I know everyones talking about reloading longs on this pair as am I. I'm equally sure others here have called the 116.90 or 117.xx.

I just wanted to include nice confluence from 3 separate FIB pulls off the highs. Each one has an extension lining up exactly at the 116.90 price... give or take a 1/10th of a pip or so... call it sloppy analysis.

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  • #51,346
  • Nov 23, 2014 8:48pm Nov 23, 2014 8:48pm
Maybe ?????????????
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  • #51,347
  • Nov 23, 2014 8:48pm Nov 23, 2014 8:48pm
waiting for the breakout.. and yup, still long from 117.5 and 117.8

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  • #51,348
  • Nov 23, 2014 9:18pm Nov 23, 2014 9:18pm
Curious wouldn't the bank of Japan being closed mean that it's a down day, I mean isn't most of this movement being caused by centeral bank intervention to being with? Just saying, charts be damned there's usually large players making the traffic.
  • #51,349
  • Nov 23, 2014 9:31pm Nov 23, 2014 9:31pm
fibs are cool

I respect anyone's view posted here. Just want to share how I believe you can get the best use out of fibs. Note how price reacts to fib levels, it will tell you a lot about price directional bias. Price may or may not go to a fib level, but to me, what tells me more is what it does once it gets there...

On a strong uptrend and bearish retrace (current situation), I look at the fact that price has established itself above the first fib level of the retrace. As long as it stays above that, then it has a bullish reversal bias.

True, it has dropped below it, and touched down near the low, and if it does that again, maybe fall through and make a new low, who knows.

But for now, it really looks like it wants to go up. Note the bullish reactions to get above, or stay above that first fib level...
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  • #51,350
  • Nov 23, 2014 9:33pm Nov 23, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting Eda
Curious wouldn't the bank of Japan being closed mean that it's a down day, I mean isn't most of this movement being caused by centeral bank intervention to being with? Just saying, charts be damned there's usually large players making the traffic.
FYI, some years ago it was widely known that BOJ would regularly carry out minor adjustments on Yen value - sometimes twice a day. This was presumably done to facilitate large commercial transactions that maybe had a particular date and value. The BOJ, or their (out of hours) affiliates, will intervene BOTH ways in the market - it's not always a one way trip.
  • #51,351
  • Nov 23, 2014 10:53pm Nov 23, 2014 10:53pm
based on my technicals i tend to think it is a bullish reversal considering it is bouncing of the 20EMA and correlating with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY ''probably'' its up
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  • #51,352
  • Nov 23, 2014 10:53pm Nov 23, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting benaiah
fibs are cool I respect anyone's view posted here. Just want to share how I believe you can get the best use out of fibs. Note how price reacts to fib levels, it will tell you a lot about price directional bias. Price may or may not go to a fib level, but to me, what tells me more is what it does once it gets there... On a strong uptrend and bearish retrace (current situation), I look at the fact that price has established itself above the first fib level of the retrace. As long as it stays above that, then it has a bullish reversal bias....
118 might provide some resistance: around your 38.2 fib level, round number and 50 ema on the hourly.
  • #51,353
  • Nov 23, 2014 10:59pm Nov 23, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} 118 might provide some resistance: around your 38.2 fib level, round number and 50 ema on the hourly.
Absolutely agree. Definitely a lot of resistance to get through, and I expect price to stay in range for at least a day or 2...

As long as the perceived bottom of the retrace holds, and so far it looks like it is holding, and that first fib level is key.

And in agreement with your post, I did TP before it hit 118. Waiting for it to pull back a bit for re-entry...
  • #51,354
  • Nov 23, 2014 11:18pm Nov 23, 2014 11:18pm
Needs to very quickly get above 118, or could fall back 20-30 pips. I still think it will make it above 118 even if not on the first couple tries... We'll see...
  • #51,355
  • Nov 24, 2014 12:19am Nov 24, 2014 12:19am
i've just got a message from USD/JPY major
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don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #51,356
  • Nov 24, 2014 12:31am Nov 24, 2014 12:31am
Quoting yunyoungro
i've just got a message from USD/JPY major {image}
Tell as too.
  • #51,357
  • Nov 24, 2014 12:44am Nov 24, 2014 12:44am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Absolutely agree. Definitely a lot of resistance to get through, and I expect price to stay in range for at least a day or 2... As long as the perceived bottom of the retrace holds, and so far it looks like it is holding, and that first fib level is key. And in agreement with your post, I did TP before it hit 118. Waiting for it to pull back a bit for re-entry...

on my chart it peaked to 117.99 - UJ is teasing ...
  • #51,358
  • Nov 24, 2014 1:06am Nov 24, 2014 1:06am
Quoting benaiah
buy
yeah, BUY is the only thing to consider with this pair - at the moment anyway.
  • #51,359
  • Nov 24, 2014 1:44am Nov 24, 2014 1:44am
Bull is facing resistance to hang on at 117.9

Beyond this and coupled with good US data will see this pair heading 119 in good form.
  • #51,360
  • Nov 24, 2014 2:12am Nov 24, 2014 2:12am
Long USDJPY at 117.80, with a tight SL 117.35, TP 119.00

Currently 118 has a very strong resistance but it's just matter of time to breakout this level
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