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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #51,301
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:55pm Nov 21, 2014 2:55pm
I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to 117/116.50 before continuing back towards 119 and beyond.
  • #51,302
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:42pm Nov 21, 2014 3:42pm
We are heading next week into range mode.

I'd only note 1 thing. Price retraced, and bears could not push it lower on the second attempt.

Just about any time frame you look it (except for D1 and above), there is no clear direction, hence, my view is consolidation.

Price is exactly at the 50% retracement level of this last attempt to move up (which includes the failed attempt to go lower).

That key level (50% of last move) is at 117.70-72. And price is nudging above it as I write this. This gives me a bullish outlook if price can find it's way above 117.70.

However, I still see things in a range mode, and will need to see how price reacts to 118.29 when it goes back up there...

Edit: this post is completely short term. My mid to long-term view is still bullish
  • #51,303
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:18pm Nov 21, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} thats exactly what it is, its just a balancing act imo... for example eur/usd all week has been somewhat in a bullish consolidation, and i kept saying draghi will bring everyone home... like he has done twice this month already.. and sure enough, he opens his mouth this morning and BANG - 1.2380 i will continue to say buy the dip on this pair, and sell the bounce on eur usd... holding new longs from 117.5 and 117.9 good weekend folks
Good strategies re EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

And yes, when this happened EUR/USD was bouncing along a resistance level. That, coupled with with expectations regarding Draghi, was good forewarning.

Going forward, I think the market will remain a little fickle. So countertrend trades, like you suggest, are well-founded.
  • #51,304
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:25pm Nov 21, 2014 6:25pm
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  • #51,305
  • Nov 21, 2014 7:10pm Nov 21, 2014 7:10pm
Quoting benaiah
Generally speaking, not responding to anyone in particular, one thing I've noticed that can happen, is when a trader gets stopped out, they immediately think they need to jump in a trade in the opposite direction. This is incorrect thinking unless you are trading extremely short time frames, and even then is not always correct. Has the trend changed? Hardly. The trend rarely, if ever, takes one bounce and heads back the other way. Wait. Wait. Wait. For instance, if you are stopped out on a strong uptrend like with USDJPY, walk away. Wait. You picked...
I AGREE totally... i stay long on this pair because of fundamentals, never short it, i just let it dip and buy again... you can cross yourself up jumping back and forth when u get stopped out. bad story lol
  • #51,306
  • Nov 21, 2014 8:04pm Nov 21, 2014 8:04pm
targeting 120. right from here. going deeper - buying more .
will change my view only if she will get lower than 116.40 ( i dont think so )
  • #51,307
  • Nov 21, 2014 8:36pm Nov 21, 2014 8:36pm
We may range next week if they throw out some BS slowing US economy due to northeastern storms news releases. But Dollar strength is here to stay especially with China slashing rates too. More big money is going to be moving into the US as we are really the ONLY country not deliberately cutting our rates and pumping money(ironic isn't it lol). Just look at stock market rises today should continue into next week and dollar should rebound.
  • #51,308
  • Nov 21, 2014 9:46pm Nov 21, 2014 9:46pm
Looks like the extreme weakness of the jpy is slowly turning around on this CurrencySlopeStrength indicator.

Still very weak against all other major currencies, but turning around over the last few days all the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #51,309
  • Nov 21, 2014 10:17pm Nov 21, 2014 10:17pm
will it be good to enter at 117.34 or 117.04 area?
  • #51,310
  • Nov 22, 2014 12:29am Nov 22, 2014 12:29am
Have small long at 117.6. Looks like it will probably continue to go up but serious risk of retracement means I can't see myself being long in large scale on this.
  • #51,311
  • Nov 22, 2014 4:55am Nov 22, 2014 4:55am
Quoting benaiah
Generally speaking, not responding to anyone in particular, one thing I've noticed that can happen, is when a trader gets stopped out, they immediately think they need to jump in a trade in the opposite direction. This is incorrect thinking unless you are trading extremely short time frames, and even then is not always correct. ... Go with the trend. If price is moving against the trend (i.e. recent USDJPY retrace), then you know it is temporary, and the slightest long signal will be better than a strong short signal in the other direction... Edit:fixed...
sage advice!

If you get stopped out, it may also mean: stay out and just wait. sometimes it is current market conditions that work against you.
  • #51,312
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:00am Nov 22, 2014 8:00am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} sage advice! If you get stopped out, it may also mean: stay out and just wait. sometimes it is current market conditions that work against you.
Don't mind, adding on to above postings.

I think other than which, the most important point before heading on into a trade must be basis on what grounds, fundamental news, technical or just personal psychology.

Alot of traders in my pov execute their trade with the thinking 'yeah i think it is it' without a valid stronghold/ground reason. Just purely basis on 'Yeah im gonna make big bucks out of this'.

Some correction to be done will be entering with a valid ground, if you're buying or selling, what grounds made it so instead of taking on a gambling instinct which says 'i've lost this trade, i must insist on my bias'. Sometime it may be good for stubborn bias, but basis on which alternative to review that bias one's having.

As for the valid grounds/stronghold it must be differentiate into short-term event driven news basis on news effect or long-term analysis basis on technical or general trend/market impacting event.

With above said, that does not means necessary i'm correct but in a general basic aspect, imo i think above's a must.
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #51,313
  • Nov 22, 2014 10:42am Nov 22, 2014 10:42am
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} Don't mind, adding on to above postings. I think other than which, the most important point before heading on into a trade must be basis on what grounds, fundamental news, technical or just personal psychology. Alot of traders in my pov execute their trade with the thinking 'yeah i think it is it' without a valid stronghold/ground reason. Just purely basis on 'Yeah im gonna make big bucks out of this'. Some correction to be done will be entering with a valid ground, if you're buying or selling, what grounds made it so instead of taking on...
Nice advice, DingDongWay.

On your particular theme : don't trade the mere noise, is what I've learnt.
  • #51,314
  • Nov 22, 2014 3:37pm Nov 22, 2014 3:37pm
Gidday YEN

Kept one short from the high,an held longs.

I had way to many charts running,an need more Moo laa

to hold longs on these retraces.

Had to prune the lemon tree

The old saying you need money to make money

In longs any way,add more lower 117 etc

Spend your time in chart that gives you the best results

Wonder if we will see 120 next week
  • #51,315
  • Nov 23, 2014 12:12pm Nov 23, 2014 12:12pm
Lets have a great week lady and gents!
  • #51,316
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:21pm Nov 23, 2014 3:21pm
most likely gapping up
  • #51,317
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:32pm Nov 23, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting thegmann
most likely gapping up
Yep. And trying to get above 117.95...

Nice rejection of key level 117.61, as it bounced at 117.665.

But we'll need to see how it reacts to 117.20-40 assuming it can continue up. I still expect range (117.7-119) to hold through today, and maybe tomorrow NY session. Guess we'll see...
  • #51,318
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:46pm Nov 23, 2014 3:46pm
anther trading week... UJ open over 60 pips high.. hopefully JPY Bank Holiday gives us an advantage to reach 118 - 119 zone soon
  • #51,319
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:49pm Nov 23, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting poseikwame
anther trading week... UJ open over 60 pips high.. hopefully JPY Bank Holiday gives us an advantage to reach 118 - 119 zone soon
There's also thanksgiving here in America, so possibly low volume this week... who knows.
  • #51,320
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:55pm Nov 23, 2014 3:55pm
on Friday there will be some news published form Japanese economy CPI and unemployment rate
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