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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #51,281
  • Nov 21, 2014 10:57am Nov 21, 2014 10:57am
Quoting dbutton1990
Triple bottom in progress? {image}
Looks good to me. 117.35 was the low yesterday. Today couldn't touch it on this push down today. Let's see if it holds...
  • #51,282
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:00am Nov 21, 2014 11:00am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} This pair is making me pull my hair right now. Most of the jpy went flat a while ago, and USDJPY jumps.. if it passes 117.75 i will kill my shorts and close the UJ charts.. I just think the dollar is have way to high thoughts about it self.. it is not that strong!! I think ppl are getting tricked with this monkey and Net shorts have been descending for a while..
That's a good point. I saw USD rallies get sold off repeatedly this week - by the looks, as some kind of preplanned strategy against retail traders.

But, I personally don't think it's a matter of sentiment, but rather the knowledge that the market is overcrowded. ie. easier to trade against the USD-hungry crowd. When the excitement cools off, I think the trend will resume.
  • #51,283
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:01am Nov 21, 2014 11:01am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Looks good to me. 117.35 was the low yesterday. Today couldn't touch it on this push down today. Let's see if it holds...
yup why went long 117.5 this thing tested multiple times and each time sizable rejection.

Lets see if we can get above 117.8 and close above will give my long more hope.
Looks like were gonna touch 117.6 then try again fingers crossed we go through.
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  • #51,284
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:04am Nov 21, 2014 11:04am
for the foreseeable future it is safer to sell jpy instead of buying it
As Above, So Below
  • #51,285
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:13am Nov 21, 2014 11:13am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} yup why went long 117.5 this thing tested multiple times and each time sizable rejection. Lets see if we can get above 117.8 and close above will give my long more hope. Looks like were gonna touch 117.6 then try again fingers crossed we go through. {image}
Yep, and just looked at GBPJPY and it too looks ready to blast off. Again, key is 118.29. If it can get above that, I'd foresee a very bullish week next week...
  • #51,286
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:31am Nov 21, 2014 11:31am
We need to break 117.85 here in order to move up further
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,287
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:51am Nov 21, 2014 11:51am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} positive corelation between s&p 500 and usd/jpy. so according to you if usd/jpy goes to 108 s&p 500 will go to 2000.
Pal if you do note these posts which ive been talking on UJ "earlier". We did came some long way. In anycase for UJ im looking on another run at price range 125
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #51,288
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:06pm Nov 21, 2014 12:06pm
Here we go! I'm wondering how far it will go before close. Any guesses?
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,289
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:08pm Nov 21, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Here we go! I'm wondering how far it will go before close. Any guesses?
Would love to see it blast through 118.29.

But, if I had to guess, I'd say it will bounce around between 118.29ish area and where it is right now for a while. We will see...

Edit: If doesn't get above 118.29, would mean we enter next week in range mode, awaiting eventual break out...
  • #51,290
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:11pm Nov 21, 2014 12:11pm
I'm glad to see that most in this thread do not seem to be panicking about the recent descent... are most looking to get in here for longs like me? I've still been holding my since the drop and am in a bit of a draw down for sure - but adding longs on the dips.
  • #51,291
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:13pm Nov 21, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting Oser
I'm glad to see that most in this thread do not seem to be panicking about the recent descent... are most looking to get in here for longs like me? I've still been holding my since the drop and am in a bit of a draw down for sure - but adding longs on the dips.
I'm long at 118.05...still holding...would love to see 118.50 today!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,292
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:13pm Nov 21, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Here we go! I'm wondering how far it will go before close. Any guesses?
In my pov basis on current, it will not deviate much from current mean price of 117.6 zonal intra day.If looking on higher tf perspective we are in the upper range now. Base top price shall be around 121 in my two cents worth.
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #51,293
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:22pm Nov 21, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} That's a good point. I saw USD rallies get sold off repeatedly this week - by the looks, as some kind of preplanned strategy against retail traders. But, I personally don't think it's a matter of sentiment, but rather the knowledge that the market is overcrowded. ie. easier to trade against the USD-hungry crowd. When the excitement cools off, I think the trend will resume.
I can see it.. i get, dangerous play.

I going to be careful with everything that is connected with the dollar. I think it's overdone
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  • #51,294
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:26pm Nov 21, 2014 12:26pm
Price has broken the upper boundary of the channel it's been moving in on H4. Currently it is establishing the bottom, it seems of the new channel, which has an even steeper incline.

It would appear that 120+ is the target for next week.

Edit: Pobably goes without saying, red is the old channel, green is the new channel

Edit 2: Also, expect a bit of ranging until the top of the old channel is broken again, since it fell back in it. Which channel will prevail? We will see...
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  • #51,295
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:08pm Nov 21, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting benaiah
Price has broken the upper boundary of the channel it's been moving in on H4. Currently it is establishing the bottom, it seems of the new channel, which has an even steeper incline. It would appear that 120+ is the target for next week. Edit: Pobably goes without saying, red is the old channel, green is the new channel Edit 2: Also, expect a bit of ranging until the top of the old channel is broken again, since it fell back in it. Which channel will prevail? We will see... {image}
The big question is what will happen!? Unfortunatly i do think that USDJPY needs 120 before a drop, and it could be the reason we are seeing that fight that is going on now. I was actually starting out looking at the NZDJPY and AUDJPY pairs as they usually have more clean swings. They are showing more signs of jpy retracement is comming and i thought that they just needed the push from the other pairs, due to the pinbars, to start roll over. Unfortunatly i was close to getting stopped out though while many others have produced big gains today. Then we have correlation... had i been fully aware of all the correlations and what currencies that should be strong i would probably have left out some pairs. But currencystrengthwise, dollar is losing it's strength over the past couple of days and JPY is actually getting stronger, that should have shown us a more serious drop in USDJPY, but this have not happend. Together with the fall in net longs in USD and the falling net shorts over the last couple of months in yen, should and could indicate we are near the top in USDJPY, and banks wants their target.... SOOOOOO.. i will not touch it anymore until 120 is printed, i closed my positions, and will not long either as we know that it just takes one freak order that triggers the move that will have everyone running for the door. Right now there is to many long wicks that makes it unpredictable..
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #51,296
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:26pm Nov 21, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} The big question is what will happen!? Unfortunatly i do think that USDJPY needs 120 before a drop, and it could be the reason we are seeing that fight that is going on now. I was actually starting out looking at the NZDJPY and AUDJPY pairs as they usually have more clean swings. They are showing more signs of jpy retracement is comming and i thought that they just needed the push from the other pairs, due to the pinbars, to start roll over. Unfortunatly i was close to getting stopped out though while many others have produced big gains...
I agree with your statement.

In my pov, USD might be losing its steam in the last couple of days for a bullrun, but overall if having the bias on a higher tf aspect, its actually improving aint it. JPY initially after BOJ intervention to cap YEN low for higher exportation rates did play certain parts to the jump from previous swing of 96+ to now where it is. but on a longer view as compared to the current 'progress' USD hand made since then, i believed USD played out better in sense of 'appreciation of value'.

Basis on the whole chart for the last couple of years, where its at now is totally a fresh era form of currency value. We've past the lower range, reaching into 'time length' form of consolidation( there's consolidation basis on time length and up/down price correction ) and entering now into the 'new market range' in my pov.

In short the market range which i pointed is etc. its just like a $1 10years back as compared to a $1 at present year, its a new set.

Hence in my opinion its more of a new opportunity for a fresh market ( thou history plays a big part here in chart, im not saying not to look back to historical prices to get some significant level of prices Resistance/Support ). For my end if there's lots of 'wicks', zoom out higher TF. i feel it enables your end to make certain prominent positions taking into consideration of main bias to buy on dips or vice versa for intra day/week trading.

As always, technically/fundamental/psychology trading, its a minimum party of 2 of these 3 still.

In any case, good luck mate !

Just sharing my two cents worth.
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #51,297
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:08pm Nov 21, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} The big question is what will happen!? Unfortunatly i do think that USDJPY needs 120 before a drop, and it could be the reason we are seeing that fight that is going on now. I was actually starting out looking at the NZDJPY and AUDJPY pairs as they usually have more clean swings. They are showing more signs of jpy retracement is comming and i thought that they just needed the push from the other pairs, due to the pinbars, to start roll over. Unfortunatly i was close to getting stopped out though while many others have produced big...
It will continue to go up. The trend is still strong. Join the trend. Don't try to catch the first "big" retracement. Trends always go longer and farther than anyone thinks.

Even after that first "big" retracement, it doesn't mean the trend is over. Just means it's more volatile, and more opportunities to trade in both directions. Right now, it's a one directional trade, unless you want to scalp for a few hours. I may take short trades here and there, but they are very quick in and out trades.
  • #51,298
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:37pm Nov 21, 2014 2:37pm
looks like a 117.7 close for the weekend I see a return to retest the highs next week but we'll see what JPY press conferences bring.

I gotta work on holding my trades longer. Got all the right entries then puss out and close them B/E most of the time.

Made $1000 in my demo account from yesterday-today just holding my trades to completion and sticking to my gut. All using .01 lots too... Traded 10 pairs big gains on usd/jpy eur/usd gbp/jpy gbp/chf eur/jpy. Made significantly significantly less in my real account lol. Ah well.
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  • #51,299
  • Edited 7:08pm Nov 21, 2014 2:39pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} That's a good point. I saw USD rallies get sold off repeatedly this week - by the looks, as some kind of preplanned strategy against retail traders. But, I personally don't think it's a matter of sentiment, but rather the knowledge that the market is overcrowded. ie. easier to trade against the USD-hungry crowd. When the excitement cools off, I think the trend will resume.
thats exactly what it is, its just a balancing act imo... trying to keep price down, (as if they know upcoming news are going to be devastating) .. they have done it all month.... push price down, then news comes out and wipes out the whole pullback and then some.. now if that pullback didnt happen, we would be at way overextended levels (which we are already) for example eur/usd all week has been somewhat in a bullish consolidation, and i kept saying draghi will bring everyone home... like he has done twice this month already.. and sure enough, he opens his mouth this morning and BANG - 1.2380

i will continue to say buy the dip on this pair (uj), and sell the bounce on eur usd...

holding new longs from 117.5 and 117.9

good weekend folks
  • #51,300
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:43pm Nov 21, 2014 2:43pm
Generally speaking, not responding to anyone in particular, one thing I've noticed that can happen, is when a trader gets stopped out, they immediately think they need to jump in a trade in the opposite direction. This is incorrect thinking unless you are trading extremely short time frames, and even then is not always correct.

Has the trend changed? Hardly. The trend rarely, if ever, takes one bounce and heads back the other way.

Wait. Wait. Wait.

For instance, if you are stopped out on a strong uptrend like with USDJPY, walk away. Wait. You picked the right direction. But maybe your entry was off, or your SL was too tight.

Take the current price level as an example. It is a retrace. It has happened before. What did it do before? Will it behave the same way now? If so, it is an extremely good entry point long.

What if I am wrong and the 117.37 is not the bottom? What if my SL is hit? So what. Who cares. I will wait for another bottom to form, and jump back in long. It is really that simple. It WILL go up. And the bigger the retrace the better. Why? Because the prior high will remain the target, and the farther away price gets from that target is the more pips that can be gained when I jump back in long.

I have found that it is never good to chase the price. Let it come to you. If you're long, wait for retrace. If you're short, wait for move up. Then just wait for clear evidence that price is ready to move in your direction, and jump back in. Go with the trend.

If price is moving against the trend (i.e. recent USDJPY retrace), then you know it is temporary, and the slightest long signal will be better than a strong short signal in the other direction...

Edit:fixed typos
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