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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #51,121
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:21pm Nov 20, 2014 8:21pm
as long as japan keeps printing, the yen will weaken further, so f what Aso says...

buy the dip
  • #51,122
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:22pm Nov 20, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting thegmann
woah now my long 117.5 just got hit :O we could def see 117 very easily here.
this is going back to touch 117 got out break even on this pending long I had sitting at 117.5 since yesterday might as well save the drawdown if I can. Pending long 117. I can hold to 115-114.5 if needed from there as well. Don't see this beaking 115 or it would start signaling a reversal which isn't gonna happen.
  • #51,123
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:23pm Nov 20, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting Liam0530
as long as japan keeps printing, the yen will weaken further, so f what Aso says... buy the dip
This retracement is all part of the game....it could go lower yes, but the bullish momentum so far says otherwise. I was thinking we would see this kind of retrace around 118 yesterday, instead we got it around 119. I'm predicting a nice move up to close the week tomorrow. If I'm wrong, well then oh well
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,124
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:23pm Nov 20, 2014 8:23pm
first it seems like minor pull back on a 5m chart. Then on a 15m then 30m and so on it goes
  • #51,125
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm
ooooouuuchhhhhh!!!!! emergency lands ladies and gentle men!! all those praying for 117.50 got it now u beeter push it back up!!
  • #51,126
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} This retracement is all part of the game....it could go lower yes, but the bullish momentum so far says otherwise. I was thinking we would see this kind of retrace around 118 yesterday, instead we got it around 119. I'm predicting a nice move up to close the week tomorrow. If I'm wrong, well then oh well
The 15 minute is definitely looking bullish now. Congrats to those who made your pips on this retrace
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,127
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting benaiah
A LOT of traders trade the H1 chart. And that is one huge bearish drop on H1. Look at where price went that last time there was that big of drop in one hour... Price fell for next day or 2 after. I expect the same here... The more I think about it, the more I think it will go below 117 by end of day tomorrow. Maybe bull-trend resume next week? We'll see...
Right on
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #51,128
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm Nov 20, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} This retracement is all part of the game....it could go lower yes, but the bullish momentum so far says otherwise. I was thinking we would see this kind of retrace around 118 yesterday, instead we got it around 119. I'm predicting a nice move up to close the week tomorrow. If I'm wrong, well then oh well
I too tried timing a 118 short got stopped out of that of course lol. 119 it was to reverse going to see 200pip down and then its shooting back up to 120 region.
  • #51,129
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:27pm Nov 20, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Right on
this'll retrace to 117 MAYBE a bit below it and close there then gap up over weekend everyone'll buy back in and we'll be off to 120.
  • #51,130
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:27pm Nov 20, 2014 8:27pm
I'm long for now but I will short again soon.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #51,131
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:28pm Nov 20, 2014 8:28pm
Quoting thegmann
this'll retrace to 117 MAYBE a bit below it and close there then gap up over weekend everyone'll buy back in and we'll be off to 120.
Yes, this is likely. Although I'm not sure about the gap up.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #51,132
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:31pm Nov 20, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} I too tried timing a 118 short got stopped out of that of course lol. 119 it was to reverse going to see 200pip down and then its shooting back up to 120 region.
The only way this will shoot is sideways and now i'm being optimistic. I would keep a distance to this currency for a while. Better to look at some euro currencies ın comıng hours.
  • #51,133
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:33pm Nov 20, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} This retracement is all part of the game....it could go lower yes, but the bullish momentum so far says otherwise. I was thinking we would see this kind of retrace around 118 yesterday, instead we got it around 119. I'm predicting a nice move up to close the week tomorrow. If I'm wrong, well then oh well
if you're wrong - you won't be for long.

*** and by long I mean time frame... not direction***
  • #51,134
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:36pm Nov 20, 2014 8:36pm
Let me explain what happens. People buy longs way back at say 110 or whatever. They are making so much money. They survive each correction.

On technical the rates say, yes keep buying, as expect usd strength.

But what happens is, eventually a correction will come (I don't know when) and the momentum of the longs unwinding will create a spiral effect.

Eventually, those who bought in early, get scared, take profits. Some hold. But some get scared. Because of of some getting scared, the spiral continues.

And those that bought in at 110 can see everything wiped in a week, of what took a year to build.

This is what is in store for currencies that have too many longs based on too much leverage. Then when it comes down, the shorts apply their leverage.

Buying currency and just holding it for an eternal up, eventually these people will get caught.

Even if usd/jpy bounces back. This pull back will add volatility for weeks to come, that in itself murders the long term trade. As long term trade requires constant buying. Not just buying on support lines, but buying after the support.

This currency USD>JPY requires constant buying. If it is just holding, you can guarantee it is about to go down.
  • #51,135
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:36pm Nov 20, 2014 8:36pm
ABE sales tax for 2015 postponded for 18months now this super hero comes and open his mouth... and he didnt say anything really just confirmed the currency is messed up and they don't have an idea where it is headed to they leave it up to the forex market to decide!! i think this is barbaric!! I bet him and his cronies just put a big pocket sell before he opened his mouth anyway...
  • #51,136
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:37pm Nov 20, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting Oser
{quote} if you're wrong - you won't be for long.
Wise words
  • #51,137
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:37pm Nov 20, 2014 8:37pm
I am heavy long on that!! With tight stops good risk
  • #51,138
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:38pm Nov 20, 2014 8:38pm
The risk with the Japanese Fins minister's comment is that Japan will change it's FX policy due to the fast appreciation of the Yen. Not going to happen. Further, he made the comment at the same time that the market determines FX rates. As I like to say, you take a hot news flash and you throw it in the trash. Buying opportunity IMHO.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #51,139
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:38pm Nov 20, 2014 8:38pm
http://i361.photobucket.com/albums/o...here-we-go.jpg
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,140
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:39pm Nov 20, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting KongMing
Let me explain what happens. People buy longs way back at say 110 or whatever. They are making so much money. They survive each correction. On technical the rates say, yes keep buying, as expect usd strength. But what happens is, eventually a correction will come (I don't know when) and the momentum of the longs unwinding will create a spiral effect. Eventually, those who bought in early, get scared, take profits. Some hold. But some get scared. Because of of some getting scared, the spiral continues. And those that bought in at 110 can see everything...
dude no one that bought at 110 has been holding their position for over a year... that was like what 3 weeks ago?
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