USD/JPY Discussion

I think we're headed to 117

maybe even 116.65

The more people sell jpy, the bigger bubble it will get. When that bubble breaks, everyone will close their trade and take profit.
And that may be the time the bull train is over.

this pair thrills me right nowperfect place to be.

I was just thinking similarly, that that big bearish drop is going to scare a lot traders out of their long positions...

Wait till it finds support. Or...

Go short?

that rhymes

JPY started to recover...I'm expecting in less than 10 working trading days USD/JPY will landed somewhere at 115.0

Seriously. Dangerous to jump in now, with unpredictability of this pair. But I do feel it's going lower, as mentioned 117 or 116.65.

It could always bounce though, but I'd only enter for short term profits at this point...

This drop is not massive enough. It needs to drop below 117 to scare my trader.

Is it still trending up?

What kind of market movers make something like that happen? And how? Across the board? I'm sure this is just a new lesson for me... but an expensive one since I don't use stops....

Probably

Friday is not a good day to buy back in. And buying on horizontal support lines is fine for small blips, but not big ones.

When too many longs are built up, when it unwinds there is no stability to buy back in.

No support line is built greatly, because there has been no great test, as all was up up up.

So multiple people are buying on various support lines. Each time one fails, people lose faith to try the next one.

Momentum builds the other way. This is how trends reverse. Not because there are not enough buyers of the currency.

But because there is no common support. Stops get hit. And it goes on and on, and it does not need any news or event for it.

It is just the natural reversal when too many longs are built up, and no great correction for a long time.

So this is the danger. The only thing that will probably save this currency is the weekend. And even then still there will be a lot of caution on Monday.

It is quite possible for a simple pull back like this, to spiral into something massive, and effect all markets likewise, simply by domino effect. It is quite fascinating.

In theory, any pull back that has too many longs built up, can reverse, and never come back up, regardless of news, technical sense.

It is quite possible, some day, a currency gain too many longs, and simply unwind forever, and destroy economies. I am not saying this will happen now. Only how a little thing, can create a domino, because of leverage in our markets. Any small thing can bring down over leverage, into utter ruin, when the leverage is over done.

Ie. We expect first something happens, market goes down, then so does currency. I am saying these days, its going to happen the other way. A currency will go down from being over leveraged and then effect everything else.

This is how big forex is these days. Scary.

haha

FX is fast paced.
Its the formula one of the financial markets.
We aren't here for the pace car.

Seeya Aso

Possibly. But I wouldn't short right now for more than 100pips; preferabbly small shorts with reasonable TPs.

This decline is fueled by Japan's finance minister Aso's announcement about how "the yen is weakening too fast....not welcome".

In other words, it's a panic sell off in fears of Japan grabbing the USD/JPY bulls by the horns and directing intervening. Then again, Japan's ruling politicians don't really have a choice, given the upcoming elections....a rapid deterioration of the yen, however much it may be economically necessary, isn't welcome amongst the constituents.

Just imagine: How would Americans react if the dollar kept sinking in value against other currencies and the president did nothing to stop it? Even if was a necessary economic measure, you can bet there'd be SERIOUS repercussions on election day.

For politicians, it's not so much as what's "good for the country", but rather "what's good for the country WHILE THEY'RE RUNNING IT". That, and whatever factor that could affect their affiliated party's chances in political supremacy.

You don't want to consider this movement entirely based on charts, and this CERTAINLY is not a reversal in the bullish trend of all "xxx/JPY" pairs. Instead, this is a CONFIRMATION of long term bullishness for the USD/JPY, as there are now very real fears of the currency running up to 145 within the first half of next year (ffears which forces politicians to act).

Quite so - doesn't look like any demand until 116.5 116.80 on the hourly at least.

Tweezer bottoms on the 15 minute chart here...be careful with new shorts!

yes.

one news announcement and subsequent market reaction is HARDLY a trend...

buying the dip...

A LOT of traders trade the H1 chart. And that is one huge bearish drop on H1.

Look at where price went that last time there was that big of drop in one hour... Price fell for next day or 2 after. I expect the same here...

The more I think about it, the more I think it will go below 117 by end of day tomorrow. Maybe bull-trend resume next week? We'll see...

ASO is merely acknowledging - the YEN is fu&*ed...