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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,721
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:45pm Nov 19, 2014 1:45pm
I got tagged a few times on this one.
It's the end of the year and the hedge fund boys get paid a bonus.
I think they will run this thing up till the end of the year and I am not kidding when I say it looks like 123.257 could be a long overdue target..

Will I bet on it. Nope. Can't put a trade on that I have an aversion to.

Stranger things have happened in these markets...

If the USD gets any weakness, it looks to me that the usd/cad might go up....

Anyone have any feedback on that one?

I really like trading this USD against others but at some point...it has to rectify all those HUGE candles on the monthly chart. If you are not making money trading than the USD chart should tell you something is not kosher.

thanks.

peace
  • #50,722
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:50pm Nov 19, 2014 1:50pm
Gidday Yen Traders

Man getting RSI

banging the key board

see green take it fast

trying to off the YEN bus

Still got longs in

But small ones stacked up

Not adding longs

just opening up the existing

My first short is under water

Choo Choo
  • #50,723
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:52pm Nov 19, 2014 1:52pm
and looks like we're going to 120
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,724
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:03pm Nov 19, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting dbutton1990
and looks like we're going to 120
YHHHH BABYYYYY!!!
  • #50,725
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:21pm Nov 19, 2014 2:21pm
Pending shorts hit from 117.90 to 117.95. Added manually at 117.99. Just waiting for the collapse. Still it lt does look a tad bullish so i'm careful here
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,726
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:28pm Nov 19, 2014 2:28pm
Those who are buying all the way from 105.40 who is selling to them
  • #50,727
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:30pm Nov 19, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting trader700
Those who are buying all the way from 105.40 who is selling to them
those who bought at 79
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,728
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:31pm Nov 19, 2014 2:31pm
Just my opinion, but I don't believe any short opportunities are in sight. I looked for them at this weekly resistance level it's been in since yesterday, but so far, bullish all the way through it, and now has broken out of it. Next weekly supply level is not until 123.46, and monthly supply at 122.48

Plus GBPJPY is breaking out of resistance too, which could be viewed as confirmation USDJPY will continue up.

As long as it stays above 117.85, I believe it will go up, and won't look for any short opportunities until 118.60ish area at the top of channel it's moving in and also around weekly R2. If it breaks through that, then 120.40ish area...
  • #50,729
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:38pm Nov 19, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} those who bought at 79
  • #50,730
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:47pm Nov 19, 2014 2:47pm
Harrow fellow Grasshoppers

Man what a ride

What a way to end the year

with these massive moves

reckon a lot traders would be way ahead

Just have to keep the gains

I got pending sell at 118.8 to 117
  • #50,731
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:51pm Nov 19, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting eliteincome
Harrow fellow Grasshoppers Man what a ride What a way to end the year with these massive moves reckon a lot traders would be way ahead Just have to keep the gains I got pending sell at 118.8 to 117
some babies never come down!!
  • #50,732
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:54pm Nov 19, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting eliteincome
Harrow fellow Grasshoppers Man what a ride What a way to end the year with these massive moves reckon a lot traders would be way ahead Just have to keep the gains I got pending sell at 118.8 to 117
reckon a lot traders would be way ahead
I got pending sell at 118.8 to 117


And thats why a lot of traders AREN'T making gains off these moves

Idiots keep trying to short and they get burned
  • #50,733
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:56pm Nov 19, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting benaiah
Just my opinion, but I don't believe any short opportunities are in sight. I looked for them at this weekly resistance level it's been in since yesterday, but so far, bullish all the way through it, and now has broken out of it. Next weekly supply level is not until 123.46, and monthly supply at 122.48 Plus GBPJPY is breaking out of resistance too, which could be viewed as confirmation USDJPY will continue up. As long as it stays above 117.85, I believe it will go up, and won't look for any short opportunities until 118.60ish area at the top of...
I have to admit that i have shorts i'm loosing faith in, my only argument towards my self is that this move from 115.40 ish is a bit overextended. Trading way up in the upper part of its channel. I will keep them for a while and look. Above 118.20 will make me rethink again. It could be that 120 is whats needed after all... 120.16 is what i have. Would like to be in longs long before that.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,734
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:00pm Nov 19, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} I have to admit that i have shorts i'm loosing faith in, my only argument towards my self is that this move from 115.40 ish is a bit overextended. Trading way up in the upper part of its channel. I will keep them for a while and look. Above 118.20 will make me rethink again. It could be that 120 is whats needed after all... 120.16 is what i have. Would like to be in a longs long before that.
Well, I'm always looking for both short and long opportunities. I think I trade similarly to you, in that I mainly look at intra-day, or what price will do over a few days time, and trade accordingly.

Price never moves in the same direction for long. So, I agree with you, in that there will be some nice short opportunities coming. The longer this thing goes up without a retrace, the SWEETER that short will be when it does come
  • #50,735
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:12pm Nov 19, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting Acroix70
{quote} reckon a lot traders would be way ahead I got pending sell at 118.8 to 117 And thats why a lot of traders AREN'T making gains off these moves Idiots keep trying to short and they get burned
God, do they massproduce people that has the need to call other people idiots all the time as soon as others don't share their views. Seriously whats up with that? Be happy... a market needs two sides else there is no market.

Question, do others call you idiot all the time, thinking your need to call other idiots?
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,736
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:12pm Nov 19, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Well, I'm always looking for both short and long opportunities. I think I trade similarly to you, in that I mainly look at intra-day, or what price will do over a few days time, and trade accordingly. Price never moves in the same direction for long. So, I agree with you, in that there will be some nice short opportunities coming. The longer this thing goes up without a retrace, the SWEETER that short will be when it does come
somewhat agree, i believe the higher we go, the harder the pullback, but i mean for example 120 back down to 117, then continuing up north
which in that case i would buy the dip (been buying dips since august)

analysts say this, people say that, but if monetary policies continue this way (and US stays in positive data territory into and through next year) then 120 is not the stop... your talking 125, and up

but still, i think actually getting the perfect short is super difficult, because even off of a supply zone, when polcies diverge, the supply zone can only push down so much, which would be perfect for scalping on shorts...(shorting the pullback)...
but like i always say - big ups to you on your technique which is working for you and to the traders that profit from shorting this pair!
  • #50,737
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:18pm Nov 19, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} God, do they massproduce people that has the need to call other people idiots all the time as soon as others don't share their views. Seriously whats up with that? Be happy... a market needs two sides else there is no market. Question, do others call you idiot all the time, thinking your need to call other idiots?

Not at all
  • #50,738
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:19pm Nov 19, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} somewhat agree, i believe the higher we go, the harder the pullback, but i mean for example 120 back down to 117, then continuing up north which in that case i would buy the dip (been buying dips since august) analysts say this, people say that, but if monetary policies continue this way (and US stays in positive data territory into and through next year) then 120 is not the stop... your talking 125, and up but still, i think actually getting the perfect short is super difficult, because even off of a supply zone, when...
It really is right now, i enjoy it much more when i enter into long positions in this sucker, as it almost feels "safe". But i also hate giving back 100-200 pips everytime we hit something higher and they then drop it hard.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,739
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:20pm Nov 19, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} I have to admit that i have shorts i'm loosing faith in, my only argument towards my self is that this move from 115.40 ish is a bit overextended. Trading way up in the upper part of its channel. I will keep them for a while and look. Above 118.20 will make me rethink again. It could be that 120 is whats needed after all... 120.16 is what i have. Would like to be in longs long before that.
was also thinking about your "channel comment". And I agree with that too. But one problem I've found with channels (although I love using them) is that sometimes it's hard to get the right context and time frame. So, what I did with USDJPY, is zoom in to find the near-term channel, then zoom back out to put it in context. What I came up with is a channel where price bounced twice on the bottom, and hasn't hit the top for a while, so maybe overdue?

I also took into account that it has been plowing through upward resistance like butter... So, I looked for the next key levels that MIGHT slow it down.

But what I will consider more than anything else is what I see price doing. If I see a solid reversal pattern on H1, I'd probably go short regardless of where price is trading at... If I'm wrong, I just jump back in long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 58 KB
  • #50,740
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:20pm Nov 19, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting Acroix70
{quote} Not at all
SO why do you feel you need to call other people idiots? i just don't get it..
I don't even have a cool signature
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